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By C. Richard Tinsley

INTRODUCTION The economic analysis (Chapter 3), the engineering studies (Chapter 10), the credit structure (and the consequential funding sources) - Chapter 11, and the overall feasibility structure for any venture are all directed to determining one major decision element: How much and how certain is the reward for taking these risks? Risk assessment is a surprisingly weak area of analysis and is usually addressed in a checklist fashion. It is much preferable to deal within a risk system so that the inevitable tradeoffs among risks are correctly made. DEFINITION The first step toward risk definition must be to ascertain all of the risks to which a project or a company is exposed; otherwise one will remain ignorant of the possibility of a financially crippling loss until it occurs. (Carter and Crockford, 1974). However, simply stating what "risk" is can lead to debate. For example, risk could be (adapted from Vaughan, 1982): -the chance of a loss - uncertainty of loss -possibility of loss - uncertainty -dispersion of actual from expected results - probability of an outcome different from the one expected - possibility of an occurrence of an undesirable contingency -a condition in which a possibility of a loss exists. For the minerals industry financier, the last definition is probably the most appropriate. However, from a mineral company's point of view the definition might well include the possibility of not achieving the expected financial return. RISK CLASSIFICATION Risk identification will be readily agreed as the all-important first step. There are five major "branches" of risk classification. These are: -Statistical -Modellers -Checklist -Project Financing -Insurance The Statistical set discovered probability theory and any risk discussion soon deteriorates into a mathematical jungle (Megill, 1977; Hartman, 1976; Reutlinger, 1970; and Pouliquen, 1970).Their use of terminology tells its own story: coin toss (binomial distribution), gamblers' ruin, delphi (oracle) techniques, monte-carlo simulations, random walks, etcetera. These techniques inadequately represent the judgements necessary in an increasingly complicated and interrelated world. The risk Modellers have turned to the computer to handle these inter-relationships but soon find barriers because of "simultaneity". Certainly the computer has its uses to conduct various analyses (marketed as "sensitivity" analyses) but very often one finds that this involves changing one or two variables at a time, all other things being equal. Unfortunately, in a modern and complex world all other things do not remain equal. The statisticians will, no doubt, jump to their own defence by citing this

Jan 1, 1985

By HOWARD RICHARDS

THE dollar was, selected as the unit of currency by the Congress of the United States of America on Apr. 2, 1792. This "Dollar" currency is so much more convenient than the older British currency that the Canadian Government, among others, has adopted it with corresponding success. Just as the dollar is the unit of United States currency, so the meter is the international unit for measuring length. The various weights and measures used in - the United States have since Apr. 5,. 1893, been based on the metric standards. These fundamental standards are kept by the International Bureau of Weights and Measures, which is supported by the United States, Great Britain and the, other leading countries. of the world. Copies are held-in Washington and other capitals. (2) As the dollar is divided into 100 cents, so the meter, which is 10 per cent. longer than the yard, is divided into 100 centimeters or cm. And as the cent is divided into 10 mills, so the centimeter is divided into 10 millimeters or mm. In measuring clothing and other articles which do not require great accuracy, the centimeter is most con¬venient, so that such work is done in terms of centi¬meters.. Instead of speaking of a 15;2-in. collar, a 40-centimeter or 40-cm. collar is referred to. Where accuracy is needed, as in mechanical drawing, machineshop work, etc., millimeters are employed. Thus 8 mm., is the convenient equivalent for 5/16 inch.

Jan 1, 1921

By R. C. FLEMING

MINING rock asphalt for use as a paving material is an industry which has grown with the spread of the good roads movement. "Mineral Industry During 1930" reports asphaltic pavements constructed, including maintenance and repair but excluding pavement constructed with road-oil, cut-back or emulsified asphalt, as grown from 23 million square yards in 1911 to a high of 144 million in 1927. In 1930 the same source reports 106 million square yards of such paving laid and, in that year, 664,871 tons of native rock asphalt were so utilized. Many states contain rock asphalt deposits of greater or less importance but in only a few places are the de¬posits being mined commercially. In the year cited Ken¬tucky produced 305,024 tons of bituminous sandstone, Texas 270,138 tons, mostly bituminous limestone, while Alabama, Oklahoma, California and Utah produced 89,709 tons of bituminous rock for road construction. In addition Utah produced 37,906 tons of the purer asphaltic products, gilsonite, wurtzilite and ozokerite, for other uses. Speaking generally, the rock asphalt is a sandstone or limestone naturally impregnated with asphalt to an extent that makes it an ideal road surfacing material without mixing or treatment other than crushing. The asphalt content of the commercial product runs 8 to 12 per cent.

Jan 1, 1933

By William H. Bassett

RECENTLY it has become the custom of retiring presidents to talk of the relations of the Institute to its membership and its constituency- and it seems a good precedent to follow. Past-president Smith reviewed our relations to materials and to society in general. Mr. Bradley spoke of the value and use of our publications and of our educational duties. My message will be in regard to the coordination of our various groups of member interests and of service to industry. This Institute has, within its organization, four divisions and fourteen technical committees--each interested in a separate put very definite subject, and each covering a phase of mining engineering interest. These vary from geology and the geophysical methods of prospecting, to the physics of the structure of metals, truly "from the mine to the consumer"-from the preparation for mining to the final use of that which has been mined.

Jan 1, 1931

[RALPH ADAIR Ore Dressing Consultant Bull Mtn. Rd., Asheville, N. C. Phone 4-1693 JAMES A. BARR Consulting Engineer Mt. Pleasant, Tennessee Washington, D.C. BEHRE DOLBEAR & COMPANY Consulting Mining Engineers and Geologists It Broadway New York 4, N. Y. I. R. BERENT Engineering Consultants and Contractors Mineral Exploration, Mine Evaluation, Mine Designs and Mine Management 156, Ataturk Bulvari-Ankara, Turkey BLANDFORD C. BURGESS Registered Professional Engineer Mining Consultant Monticello, Georgia GLENVILLE A. COLLINS Mining Engineer Uranium examinations Cable "Coins" 8 Howard-Canfleld Bldg. Santa Barbara, Calif. COWIN & CO. Mining Engineers and Contractors Consulting Shaft & Slope Sinking Appraisal Mine Development Reports Mine Plant Construction I-lath St. S. W. B'ham, Ala., Phone 56-5566 MILTON H. FIES Consulting Engineer Rooms 1201-2. Albama Power Co. Bldg. Birmingham, Alabama]

Jan 1, 1952

By W. F. Boericke

WORLD production of silver in 1929 totaled 256 million ounces. In 1928 production was 258 million ounces, and in 1927, 254 million ounces. With an actual decrease in the amount of silver produced last year, as compared with 1928, and an increase over 1927 of less than one per cent, obviously there has been no overproduction of the metal in the popular sense. But the price of silver tells a different story. For 1927, the average quotation was 56.37 cents; it was 58.17 in 1928, and 53.0 in 1929. During the last year it reached a high point of 57 cents in January, and fell steadily, without interruption to the downward trend, to a low of 47 cents in December. Since then it has dropped to an all time low of 43 cents on February 6.

Jan 1, 1930

By AIME

DURING the happy and peaceful years between the Treaty of Versailles and the third New Deal, metallurgy became one of the most cosmopolitan of the sciences. Any metallurgist can name some twenty or thirty scientists whose work, in this country, in England, in Germany, or in France, Sweden, Italy, or Japan was as well known in other parts of the metal-producing and metal using world as it was locally, despite the fact that many of these men never left their native land. One of these metallurgical cosmopolites is Augustus Braun Kinzel, former Chairman of the Iron and Steel Division, A.I.M.E., and now a Director of the Institute. Gus Kinzel, however, is not only a cosmopolite by reputation; he is also a cosmopolite in fact. For many years he commuted at least twice a year between New York and the rest of the world; he is, therefore, not only an expert on the art and science of metallurgy but is equally expert in world travel and can expound with authority on the comparative quality and especially on the cuisine of the great prewar steamship lines; and being a true cosmopolite, he knows, as well as he knows the iron-chromium diagram, the best vintage years in the Gironde, Cote d'Or, and Saone-et-Loire departments in France and along the banks of the Moselle and Rhine in Germany.

Jan 1, 1946

By H. C., Simpson

MANY metals by virtue of their place of occurrence as ore, and their uses are travelers! Iron and steel, for instance, is one of the greatest of travelers in the form of ships and the romance of iron in this respect is only just beginning to be superseded by the stories which can be told of the travels of aluminum and its alloys, used in the building of airplanes. Tin is a traveler from the Straits Settlements to this country and Europe, for use in the canning industry; afterward traveling all over the civilized world as a part of the container for preserved foods. Silver is somewhat of an aristocrat, when its uses are measured against those of the baser metals. From earliest times it has been used for adornment (first perhaps o4 the person and later for the embellishment of weapons and' buildings), for the making of fine ar¬ticles used in the household, and as money. While its uses have been widened by the discoveries in chemistry, electricity and other sciences, its early uses are still much in evidence in our modern life.

Jan 1, 1928

By Eugene A. Stephenson

THE year 1935 is noteworthy for the superior legislative measures passed by several states. Sincere efforts have been made to establish equity between the various producing tracts in oil and gas fields. Outstanding legislative measures include the New Mexico law, known as Senate Bill No. 79, approved on Feb. 23; the Oklahoma law on April 22; the Texas law on April 30; and the Kansas law, which became effective July 1. Primarily designed to prevent waste, but more or less the direct out- growth of the current excess of potential oil and gas production, these statutes fall in the class of "Proration Laws."

Jan 1, 1935

By CHARLES M. A. STINE

THE value of chemical research has been so thor¬oughly demonstrated in the last few decades that the general public has become "research-conscious" to an extent which allows the advertising agent and publicity man to make use of research as a selling point in his advertising campaigns. We thus see the advertisements of concerns in the most varied industries stressing the research which is back of their products. The reason for this "research-consciousness" of the general public. is primarily that the products of research have increasingly engaged public attention and have. revolutionized our daily life. When we. reverse the flight of .time and imagine ourselves-in the century previous to our own, we find that we are .without the automobile, the radio, the improved telephone and electric light, refrigerated transportation, the airplane, X-rays, and many other things now taken for granted. A generation ago we find gloomy prophets foretelling the certain over-population .of the world within a few decades and an insufficiency of food due to lack of the fixed nitrogen which is now so plentifully ours.

Jan 1, 1930

By H. G. HYMER

B ECAUSE of its remote geographical position and inaccessibility, little is generally known of the mining and prospecting in Northern Rhodesia. In this rather new and promising region, the development of mines presents many difficulties. Although many mineral discoveries have been made, progress in .prospecting the huge mining concessions has been handicapped by the lack of roads, communication, transportation, native population and incomplete knowledge of geology.

Jan 1, 1929

By Felix Edgar Wormser

JUST as the ancients used the products of their crude mining endeavors to fashion tools with which to make digging easier, so today mining enterprises are dependent upon the very metals they mine for the efficient conduct of mining and metallurgical operations. In fact, the outlet afforded by the production of minerals in the United States is no mean market for the nonferrous metals. I believe that mine managers frequently lose sight of the opportunity they have to select from competitive products those which will help the market for their own metal output. For example, some years ago a large lead mine used storage-battery locomotives for its haulage, common practice, of course, throughout the United States. These particular locomotives, however, were powered not with the ordinary lead storage battery but by a competitive battery product made from an imported metal. After studying this situation, the manager saw how he could help himself by purchasing a product made from his own mineral output, and in his next order turned tip the use of the lead storage battery.

Jan 1, 1935

By FRABK HERVEY PETTINGELL

THE stock exchange and its functions is about as well understood by the average individual as the fourth dimension. What is a stock exchange? Divested of the rules and regulations by which it is governed, and the facilities it provides for the convenient handling of securities, it would be in its nude state nothing more or less than a meeting place for brokers. The stock exchange in America dates back to 1752, when a group of merchants of New York established a meeting place at the foot of Broad Street for the purpose of dealing in meal and slaves. The first definite orgarization, however, had its beginning in 1792 when 24 New York brokers signed an agreement not to buy or sell public stock for less than one quarter per cent. commission. From this small group has grown by gradual degrees, the greatest organized security market in the world, namely, the New York Stock Exchange. At the present time there are 27 stock exchanges in the United States and 5 in Canada. Based on the volume of business transacted, the Los Angeles Stock Exchange ranks 6th among them. This is attributable to the fact that strictly speaking Los Angeles has never been a stock exchange town, like some other large cities. Take for instance San Francisco, which supported one stock exchange from 1862 to .1882 and has since supported two. No city, by the way, should tolerate two stock exchanges at the same time. It is an economic folly and a senseless duplication that can be compared with rival telephone companies or competing street railway systems, paralleling each other's lines and always leads to trouble and confusion, and sooner or later one or the other falls by the wayside. While Los Angeles has had stock exchanges of one kind or another since 1896, none of them attracted much attention until 1899 when the present exchange was organized and it did not get well under way until along in 1906.

Jan 1, 1925

By E. L. Oliver

IN OFFERING a few comments and suggestions on trends in mining practice, and the methods and tools of tomorrow's mining, perhaps it will be appropriate to start with the subject of education. Charles Kettering, one of the best-known scientists and experimentalists in the automotive industry once said, in effect, that tech- 111ca1 schools have to be carefid not to teach a lot of hard and fast rules that may have been true once, but aren't so any more, or won't be presently. Possibly the mining school of the future will concern itself less with what has happened and more with what is going to happen. It will be built about or around problems. Such a school will be judged, not by the number of its students but by the quality of its improvements. To such a school the industry will send for men to solve particular problems. The industry will doubtless at some time sup- port such a school financially though a lot of hard work will be required to organize miners to undertake such financing, primarily because the mining industry, other than that concerned with iron and steel, is too loosely knit. Each company tends to its own knitting too closely for its own good. Wouldn't it be splendid if the mining industry would finance a "problem school" as suggested by Mr. Kettering and others.

Jan 1, 1939

By Paul Billingsley

THE development of the North Lily ground, which lies in the East Tintic district, Utah,. about half a mile northwest of the famous Tintic Standard mine, was undertaken by the International Smelting Co. on purely geological reasoning. The geologic theory on which this work was based resulted from several years' intensive study of the East Tintic district by the geological department of the International Smelt-ing Co., who were, during this period, indebted to many for valuable suggestions that were adopted and became part, of the gradually maturing concept. For example, E. J. Raddatz, president of the Tintic Standard Mining Co., first called attention to the significance of rhyolite alteration; J. W. Wade, assistant manager, contributed greatly to our knowledge of the great Tintic Standard orebodies; and so on all along. the line. In short, the ultimate theory embodies the aggregate experience and thought of all those most familiar with the area in question. The problem in brief was this: is the Tintic Standard deposit an isolated occurrence of ore, or are other ore deposits to be found in the vicinity? If the latter is the case, where can these others be looked for? The difficulty of the problem lay in the fact that most of the area is covered by rhyolite; beneath which lies the limestone in which the orebodies occur; so that the available evidence as to the structure of the formations, and, their mineralization; is of the slightest. The sav-ing features of the case, by means of which it proved possible to solve the problem, are three in number first, the rhyolite is pre-mineral and hence has been exposed to alteration by the mineralizing agencies; second, certain persistent dikes and fissures are con-tinuous through the rhyolite into the limestone below; and third, the extensive underground workings of the Tintic Standard gave a good basis for study of the sub-rhyolite structure and the occurrence of ore. The rhyolite overlies the Tintic Standard orebodies, and over them shows a large patch of brownish altera-tion. This patch proves to be due to chloritization and sericitization, which has spread out from certain zones of dikes, pebble-dikes and fissures. The dikes are com-posed of a light fine-grained rock which has been altered to an aggregate of quartz, alunite, and magnetite. They can be traced southwest to a common center in Big Hill, the entire mass of which is composed of the same material. The pebble-dikes, which consist of a mass of rounded pebbles, mainly quartzite, in a matrix ranging from the same quartz-alunite-magnetite rock as above to almost pure vein quartz, are closely asso-ciated with these light dikes, but in general extend farther northeast. They thus represent a specialized phase of the intrusive action of which Big Hill is the center. The brown chloritized rhyolite, then, is an alteration product due, in all. probability, to emana-tions closely associated with this phase. Since it coin-cides geographically with the Tintic Standard area of highly altered limestone, with its many great ore-bodies, it has been concluded, that it is the expression in the rhyolite of activities which have also altered and mineralized' the underlying limestone.

Jan 4, 1927

By Edward H. Williams

IN the middle of the eighteenth century John Frazier and wife, Sarah Ingraham, removed from Boston, Mass., to Philadelphia, Pa., where he was held in such esteem that we find him one of the Committee which arranged the ball at Washington's inauguration. Their son John. Nalbro Frazier, was prosperous in his mercantile career and fortunate in his wife, .Anne West; who was an important personage in the early life of Professor Frazier. This cultured lady brought into the family an atmosphere of religious enthusiasm, of thoroughness and: of unity of purpose. Her son, Benjamin West Frazier, inherited her traits and displayed them during a. short and active life. Like his father, he engaged in mercantile pursuits, and was a member of the firm of Zimmerman, Frazier & Co. In their interests he lived for a short- time in Montevideo, and on his return married Isabella Zimmerman, a daughter of the head of the firm. Their happy married life was cut short by the death of Mrs. Frazier shortly after the birth of the subject of this sketch which, occurred October 3, 1841. Mr. Frazier did not long survive her, and left his orphaned sons to, the care of his mother, from whom he had inherited a lovable and deeply religious nature, an : artistic temperament and a capacity for thorough work. Whatever of these traits fell by inheritance to these children were strengthened by the influence of their grandmother, and. the purity of mind, the delicacy of sentiment, the refinement of honor, which characterized. Professor Frazier, are due to Anne West Frazier, and are generally present in the characters of all of gentle blood who have been under the sole and immediate influence of a mature and refined woman. Professor Frazier was educated at the Episcopal Academy in Philadelphia, and passed thence through the University of

Sep 1, 1905

By Jacques B. Wertz

Both the San Andreas fault complex and the Murray fracture zone are apparently found to be contemporaneous with the Laramide mineralization period. Their compounding effects certainly have disturbed the Texas lineament belt and its components with serious lateral offsets and most probably have been instrumental in allowing intrusives to be emplaced as well as mineralization to accompany these intrusions at some of the fracture intersections. While the main fracture centers can be almost accepted as being structurally linked together, the Texas lineament trend definitely predominates, exerting a prevailing direction to graben (Silver Bell) and to elongated depressions (Bisbee). That this lineament belt also influenced the concomitant mineralization seems a logical inference. The orebodies are generally found at intersections near the most centrally-located intrusive with a distance varying from contiguity to one or two miles. The Southeast Arizona copper province owes its existence primarily to a particularly favorable structural setting of broad semi-continental scope. Thus, various regional structural elements are to be considered as possibly direct or remote cause for the widespread mineralization, although the one or the ones really responsible may never be singled out. There arc three basic regional elements: (1) The north-northwest-trending anticlinorium that diagonally crosses Arizona is quite obvious because many mountain ranges follow this direction. This anti- clinorium, which merges northward into the Wasatch-Jerome Belt, marks a broad zone of weakness where tension seems to prevail. Mineralized trends such as Jerome-San Manuel-Bisbee may give some weight to the economic value of this structural element. (2) Northeast-trending fractures, parallel to the Colorado Mineral Belt (Landwehr, 1967), appear troincident with mineralization as evidenced by the Questa-Grants-Morenci and the Lordsburg- Tyrone-Santa Rita alignments. This structural direction is accepted as one of the most economically significant in the Southwestern United States. (3) The Texas Lineament.

Jan 1, 1970

By AIME AIME

TWO days of solid discussion, with barely time out for meals, characterized the Tulsa meeting of the Petroleum Division. It was preeminently an earnest gathering devoted to technical matters. Sessions were held in the Crystal room of the Mayo Hotel with luncheon served each day in the back of the same room so that talk of methods, while slightly less formal, extended right through the lunch hour. Thursday evening the Committee did provide a little relaxation in an informal dinner at the Tulsa Club where, after a brief musical program and an amusing skit by the local Herman the Great, brief addresses in non-technical vein were made by President Farish and Vice-president Rice of the Humble Company, Henry L. Doherty of Cities Service, Secretary. Bain of the Institute, and others. The presence of leading executives of a number of the oil companies at the dinner and the sessions, and the cordial approval they expressed of the work of the Division were especially gratifying. The total registration was 215 with 100 at the dinner and 70-to 80 lunching together each day.

Jan 1, 1930

By A. U. Seybolt, R. E. Honnemon

THE purpose of this communication is to present activity data of nickel in the Ni-A1 binary system that was obtained for oxidation studies in this system. This data has been calculated from previous aluminum activity data at 1000°C1,2 by two types of Gibbs-Duhem integrations. These results should be of particular current interest to oxidation studies of aluminide coated nickel-base superalloys3 as well as other problems. The aluminum activity of Steiner and Komarek1 is plotted in Fig. 1 as a function of composition in Ni-A1 alloys at 1000°C. The dashed parts of the aluminum curves represent our approximate extrapolations from the directly measured regions. In the terminal solution regions (a and L phases) standard parabolic solution functions of the following form are assumed: where i is the component subscript, Ki is a constant at a fixed temperature, and xi is the atom fraction. The resultant nickel activity curve at 1000° C from the Gibbs-Duhem integration4 of the aluminum data is shown in Fig. 1. The solubility ranges of the phases present in the Ni-A1 binary at 1000°C are also denoted at the bottom of Fig. 1. Corresponding values of the nickel activity, aNi and yNi, are listed in Table I at useful compositional intervals. including phase boundary values. The aNi and yNi data listed in Table I are subject to the uncertainties present in the experimental aluminum activity data1 and to deviations from parabolic solution behavior in the terminal solutions. The errors introduced into aNi and yNi due to the parabolic solution assumption are expected to be relatively small (<20 pct of the values given) in all the phases except the liquid phase. Some deviation from parabolic solution behavior in the liquid phase is indicated

Jan 1, 1970

By Bunting S. Crocker

Pebble grinding was used at Lake Shore Mines in 1949. A full description of experimental evidence and test plant results was published in 1952 1 and further operating details in 1954.2 In more recent years the term autogenous grinding has been coined and is now frequently seen in the technical literature. Autogenous crushing and/or grinding covers any grinding mill in which the larger of ore are made to grind the fine pieces; the crushing and grinding may be either dry or wet. This discussion deals only with wet autogenous grinding, and only in the fine grinding part of the circuit, i.e., from 6 mesh to 92 pct -325 mesh. The term pebble milling could apply to fine autogenous grinding in which the pebbles are made from the ore itself, or it could also refer to grinding with pebbles, such as flint pebbles, from a source outside the mine.

Jan 5, 1959