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By S H. Begg

There is strong evidence that many major oil and gas (O&G) projects are plagued by large cost and schedule overruns, or significant underperformance in productivity. Similar evidence exists for large mining projects. This paper claims that uncertainty is the underlying reason why projects fail to deliver the metrics used to justify their investment, or to deliver the economic value possible if alternative decisions had been made.Most technical and economic analyses are performed to reduce uncertainty to help make decisions. Decision-making is about ranking alternatives and choosing the best; rarely are precise predictions required, if this is even possible. Better uncertainty assessment is one of the keys to better decisions, thus better business outcomes. To get better decisions it is suggested that the focus or reward/penalty incentives be shifted away from the quality of outcomes to the quality of decisions. High-quality decisions are those that are generated from the skilled use of the tools, methodologies and processes from the discipline of decision analysis.Uncertainty is quantified by probability, which is a degree of belief in the truth/falsity of some proposition about a quantity relevant to a decision, such as volume of in-place resource, future price or action of a competitor. The probability a person ascribes to a proposition depends upon their information set; hence probability is subjective – it is not an inherent attribute of the quantity of interest or the physical system.The above simple observations have profound implications for modelling approaches, how they deal with uncertainty, the use of data to help assess uncertainty and the reliability of information provided by subject-matter experts. The limited circumstances under which frequency data (from spatial or temporal variables) can be used to assign probabilities is also reviewed.People, in general, are subject to a range of biases and cognitive errors. Research with O&G subject-matter experts shows that their expertise offers little or no protection from making errors in probability assessments and other judgements.CITATION:Begg, S H, 2016. Decisions, decisions – uncertainty, variability, modelling and psychology, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 9–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By Boyd Wise

A jet pump injector was developed and successfully tested, thereby demonstrating the feasibility of a jet injector for introducing coarse coal into an operating slurry face haulage system: In Phase I a variety of injection concepts were evaluated, and the jet pump was identified as best, due to its simplicity, compactness and performance potential. In Phase IIA subscale jet pump injector tests were conducted, and a computer model of a jet pump injector was developed whose performance predictions correlated well with subscale test results. In Phase IIB various system configurations were defined for integrating a jet pump injector into a fully operational underground coarse slurry face haulage system, further highlighting the feasibility and practicality of such a system. In Phase III a full-scale mobile haulage vehicle embodying a jet pump injector and coal sizing equipment was detail designed into a practical vehicle with attractive performance characteristics. More importantly, fully operational full scale jet pump injector -and feeder/breaker subassemblies were tested and proven successful in their ability to down-size coal to 3" in all 3 dimensions and to consistantly provide slurry of 4217 weight concentration at 6.4 TPM throughput under a wide range of operating conditions including zero to maximum feed rate within 5 seconds.

Jan 1, 1985

By Branch of Editorial Services

"The Bureau of Mines was established in the public interest to conduct inquiries and scientific and technologic investigations concerning mining and the preparation, treatment, and utilization of mineral substances; to promote health and safety in the mineral industries; to conserve material resources and prevent their waste; to further economic development; to increase efficiency in the mining, metallurgical, quarrying, and other mineral industries; and to inquire into the economic conditions affecting those industries. The organic act of the Bureau, as amended by Congress and approved February 25, 1913, made it the province and duty of the Bureau of Mines to ""disseminate information concerning these subjects in such manner as will best carry out the purposes of this Act.""In accordance with this directive, the Bureau reports the findings of its research and investigations in its own series of publications and also in articles that appear in scientific, technical, and trade journals; in proceedings of conventions and seminars; in reference books; and in other non-Bureau publications. The number of these reports, the wide range of subjects they cover, and the variety of mediums in which they appear make the kind of list and index presented in this special publication both necessary and valuable. This issue of the Bureau of Mines List of Publications and Articles describes reports and articles published during the period January 1, 1980, to December 31, 1984. It supplements the 50-year list of Bureau publications issued from July 1, 1910, to January 1, 1960;1 the 50-year list of articles by Bureau authors published outside the Bureau from July 1, 1910, to January 1, 1960;2 the 5-year lists of publications and articles from January 1, 1960, to December 31, 1964,3 from January 1, 1965, to December 31, 1969,4 from January 1, 1970, to December 31, 1974,5 and from January 1, 1975, to December 31, 1979;6 and the annual lists of Bureau publications and articles from January 1 to December 31, 1980,7 from January 1 to December 31, 1981,8 from January 1 to December 31, 1982,9 and from January 1 to December 31, 1983. 10"

Jan 1, 1985

Fossil fuel consumption in the United States increased markedly over recent years, and future demands expect to be even greater. Coal, this Nation's most plentiful natural fossil fuel, will play a key role in fulfilling these demands. With expectations of increased coal exploitation, the U. S. Bureau of Mines authorized this project, the objectives of whi.ch were to prepare an authoritative report on current surface coal mining technology, to define current problems and possible solutions, and to project future developments necessary to assure adequate surfaced mined coal production to meet the Nation's future energy needs. These objectives we're accomplished by an extensive review of available published literature and data gathering field visits to active surface coal mines throughout the country.

Jan 1, 1975

By Kenneth K. Humphreys

INTRODUCTION What is automation? Why automate? Webster's New Collegiate Dictionary defines automation as "the automatically controlled operation of an apparatus, process, or system by mechanical or electronic devices that take the place of human organs of observation, effort, and decision." This definition gives an implied answer to the second question, "Why automate?" Automation, automatic control devices, and process control equipment receive their justification in supplementing or replacing manpower, which results in decreased operating costs. In the past, processes were operated with the minimum amount of instruments needed merely to guide operators. Processes were manually con- trolled by the operator on the basis of simple temperature, pressure, flow, and level indications on a panel. Today the tendency is to design a new plant to operate in a fully automatic manner according to a preset pro- gram utilizing a minimum of manpower. In addition to this direct cost reduction in manual labor, increased equipment capacity results from uniformity of flow and uniform control of process variables. This control eliminates or minimizes surges and permits equipment to be operated at or near its ultimate capacity and, for a given material throughput, permits the use of smaller process equipment. Automatic control, therefore, be it in the field of coal processing or in any industrial field, is simply a problem of economics. Control equipment is justified in terms of its contribution toward increasing productivity, increasing profit margins, or producing a new and salable product at a profit. Instruments and control devices can be divided into two general groups: (1) units which measure and (2) units which both measure and control a process variable.

Jan 1, 1979

By Richard E. Thill

The Bureau of Mines' Oil Shale Data Bank (OSDB) was created in 1976 to serve as a centralized source for the storage, retrieval, and dissemination of technical literature, patents, and information on research projects in oil shale. Thousands of bibliographic references, patents, and research projects relating to the mining of oil shale have been identified, abstracted, and indexed according to selected keyword topics. The resulting data bank listings are contained in three sections, each with a separate keyword breakdown for use in rapidly identifying references pertaining to a specific subject. All references cited in the OSDB were published prior to an established cut-off date of May 1, 1981, when a redirection of Bureau of Mines programs resulted in the loss of project funds and the subsequent phasing-out of data bank operations. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The oil shale data bank listings are the result of a team effort of the project staff. The contributions of Jimaleen Jansma for keypunching, information acquisition, and data entry, and John Brandenburg and Sandra Brake for keywording and information acquisition are gratefully acknowledged. Appreciation is expressed to the staff members of the Smithsonian Science Information Exchange, Washington D.C. for their cooperation in supplying data on recent research projects in oil shale for inclusion in the OSDB listings. Appreciation is extended also to the staff of the Gallegos Research Group for assisting with computer services to obtain the final printouts and transfer of files onto magnetic tape.

Jan 1, 1982

By Leroy E. Schulze

A review of development and a reevaluation of uses of the hydraulic air compressor are suggested by the constant changes in technology, which frequently make an old art valuable in solving current problems. Contacts with research workers in various branches of engineering indicate that this older method of producing compressed air may not be familiar to some or that its salient features might be useful in solving problems involving uses of compressed air. Briefly, a hydraulic air compressor may be described as an inverted siphon, consisting of an intake head where water and air are mingled, followed by a gravity-fall tube in which air is intimately mixed with the water and is compressed as the water pressure increases during the fall down the tube, then a separating, or stilling, chamber in which air bubbles rise to the surface of the water and collect in the upper portion of the chamber at a pressure equal to the weterhead maintained by the height of water in the discharge leg of the circuit. The water, which now contains only the fraction of air that has gone into solution, passes out of the separating chamber and rises up the discharge leg to the surface, which is, of course, at some suitable distance below the level of the intake. Present-day applications include (1) utilizing low hydraulic heads, which otherwise have little commercial values; (2) utilizing low hydraulic heads in reclamation work to supply compressed air, or in some instances to produce a small suction, for air-lift pumping (or for operation of air motors), with minimum attendance and without need for electric power; (3) utilizing medium heads, as at dam and lock installations, to produce compressed air for pneumatic operation of airlifts, gates, valves, and rubber gate seals; (4) utilizing underground waters, as in mines, to produce compressed air for general mine use; (5) using this method of isothermal compression of air in combination with standard compressors wherever hydraulic head is available, thereby securing the advantages of low-temperature intake to the mechanical compressors and reduction of moisture content below that of atmospheric air; (6) development of large air supply at pressures up to 150 p.s.i.g., which, after performing work in reciprocating or centrifugal expansion cylinders, is available at temperatures approximating -50° F. Possibilities in freezing and reheating should be mentioned which may prove economical for obtaining uniformly dry air for process work, wind-tunnel tests, or large air-conditioning installations, such as ventilation of underwater traffic tunnels, and may be economic for supply of supercharged air to gas-turbine plants.

Jan 1, 1954

By F. K. Shelton, J. C. Stah, Ruth E. Churchward

A study of the hydrometallurgy and electrowinning of cobalt from various domestic ores has been in progress at the Boulder City, Nevada, Experiment Station since February 1940. Previous reports covering certain phases of this investigation have been published. This report covers the research and pilot-plant work on the production of cobalt metal from cobalt-copper ores from the initial experimental work on crude ore through continuous operation. The ore types were from the Blackbird District, Lemhi County, Idaho. The initial tests were made with concentrated ore which was received by air mail and these experiments were expanded both in size and scope. After the laboratory was continued, improved, and extended tests were reported. Sufficiently advanced, a continuously operated plant producing 250 pounds of electrolytic cobalt per day was operated from June 15 through July 15, 1944.

Jan 1, 1948

By H. Foster Bain

THERE has never been a great civilized nation which did not have a mining industry; civilization cannot flourish without metal mining. Without tools we can have none of the 'industries that are the foundation of civilization and without metal mining we cannot produce the material of which tools are made. Therefore, if we have no metal mining we have no metals, no tools, no civilization. An example to illustrate this may be drawn from a recent article in the Saturday Evening Post which described the run-down condition of modern Athens. Athens is nothing but a busted mining camp! In its palmy days the Greeks so applied the leasing system to the silver mines of Laurium that the royalties, paid the expenses of government and instead of a tax bill the inhabitants received a pay check. The Persians came over to capture these mines but the Greek navy was built to defend them. When the silver mines played out, Greek civilization declined.. Our mining must continue if our civilization is to continue.

Jan 1, 1921

1. Domestic Production and Use: In 1983, 12 companies operated 27 primary aluminum reduction plants, with 4 firms accounting for 65% of production. Washington, Oregon, and Montana accounted for 35% of the production; Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, and West Virginia 35%; Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina 14%; other central States 16%. Based on published producer prices, output of primary metal in 1983 was valued at over $5.7 billion. Aluminum consumption by 25,000 firms was centered in the East Central United States. Packaging accounted for an estimated 37% of domestic consumption in 1983, transportation 19%, building 17%, electrical 9%, consumer durables 8%, and other uses 10%.

Jan 1, 1984

By Malcolm D. Flavel

Much has been said and written about the world's, and particularly the united states of America's, energy crisis. The relative changes between cost components of production have altered because the days of cheap energy have now gone. Decisions that made capital investment reduction attractive to treat large tonnage lower grade ore bodies appear to be no longer valid because average energy costs for comminution that were less than 1 cent per kilowatt hour in 1972, are now more than 3 cents and will shortly become 6 cents according to some projections. Increased capital investment to improve processing energy efficiencies are certainly going to be pursued. Energy today is the largest cost component in the average mineral production facility. It takes more than 12000 kilowatt hours to produce one ton of finished steel and more than 60000 kilowatt hours for each ton of copper and aluminum.

Jan 1, 1980

During the hydrometallurgical processing of the major base metals Cu, Zn, Ni and Co, the presence of iron is normally a serious complication, and iron separation from the pay metals usually constitutes one of the main challenges for the metallurgist. There are many instances, however, where the presence of iron is beneficial, or is even required. Two cases are presented where iron is required during the processing of base metals. The first example deals with the use of ferric sulphate to oxidize sulphides, more particularly copper and zinc sulphides, under atmospheric conditions. The results presented confirm that ferric ion leaching is efficient, particularly when the oxidant is regenerated during the process. The second case is the use of iron to solubilise refractory cobalt oxide minerals; examples, including pilot plant results, are presented for various ores from Africa and Central America. In both cases, this paper reviews the basic concepts involved and provides details of their application.

Jan 1, 2006

By John S. Alexander

By D. A. Barr

High-grade gold-silver mineralization associated with electrum and argentite was discovered in a quartz vein at the Chappelle property, 273 km north of Smithers, B.C., in 1969 following a regional geochemical reconnaissance program in the Cassiar-Omineca Mountains. Subsequent exploration resulted in the discovery of numerous quartz veins with associated precious-metal values in a belt 17 by 3 km in area centrally located within Toodoggone Group volcanic and sedimentary rocks of Lower to Middle Jurassic age and a window of Takla Group volcanic rocks of Upper Triassic age. More detailed investigations, consisting principally of 5677 m of surface drilling in 57 holes and crosscutting, drifting and raising on Chapelle Vein A, has outlined a high-grade gold-silver-bearing shoot with a strike length of 200 m, an average width of about 3 m and extending to an average depth of about 40 m below surface.

Jan 1, 1978

By Lewis M. Haupt

Discussion of the paper of Mr. Granger, presented at the New Haven meeting, February, 1909, and published in Bulletin No. 25, January, 1909, pp. 1 to 37. LEWIS M. HAUPT, Philadelphia, Pa. (communication to the 'Secretary*) :-This subject is of great interest to me, and I am noting progress and conditions as a test of my own judgment in advocating what I believed to be the nearer, cheaper and better route at Nicaraugua. I have as yet learned nothing to change my views, or modify the convictions which led me to retire from the Commission; but that is not the issue to-day. Our government is committed to the Panama route, and is bound to " make good." There are many points presented by Mr. Granger which seem to me worthy of very serious consideration. But when all is said there remains the risk of seismic convulsions, to which either form of canal is subject; and I fail to see that the risk would be reduced by making the cut deeper, with greater surcharge of lateral pressure upon the side walls. A severe earthquake in the rainy season would doubtless close either type of canal. One of the arguments in favor of the Panama route most insisted on, was that Nature had provided good natural harbors at its termini. Recalling this, it has interested me to note that the cost of creating the necessary harbors is estimated at $27,000,000. Mr. Granger refers to this, and quotes the Board's report to the effect that, on the Atlantic side, it will require 5 miles of jetties to " make an excellent harbor out of a wretched one." The vulnerable part of Mr. Granger's paper seems to me to lie in the admission that the plant required is still in the embryonic stage, and that at least one machine should be built and tested " to demonstrate that the theoretical strains and forces work out in practice exactly as expected." This, how-

Jul 1, 1909

By Donald L. Siebert

This profile study of the commercial secondary aluminum industry examines not only the elements that form the industry but also the technological contributions of each toward industrial growth. Concise descriptions of processing methods trace aluminum scrap from generating sources to marketable industrial and consumer goods. Economic and marketing appraisals are used to illustrate the impact that recent technology has had upon the secondary aluminum industry. Price, supply, demand, competition, and substitutes are selected as components of an economic model of the secondary industry and are used to illustrate the aggregate effects of technological changes. The final section is a conceptual look at the future in which sensitive economic indicators (such as die casting in the automotive and appliance industries) are examined as well as the problems of conserving mineral resources by retrieving secondary aluminum from solid waste.

Jan 1, 1970

This: symposium was sponsored by the Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the lnterior, in order to critically examine the state-of-the-art of sulfide flotation chemistry and to define current and emerging problems that should be emphasized in future fundamental research. The topics covered through invited papers include both reviews and recent research results in the areas of thermodynamics of reagent-mineral interactions; collector adsorption processes; the effects of solid-state point defects on flotation; activation and deactivation phenomena; the electrochemical role of oxygen in sulfide flotation; environmental problems in flotation; and selective flocculation of fines. Papers riving perspectives on flotation research in relationship to our national mineral requirements and the relationships between industrial flotation research and academics are also presented. An edited summary of the symposium follows the papers.

Jan 1, 1980

By John W. Taber

The Bohemia mining district is a small but intensely mineralized area in western Oregon . For its size , it has made a substantial although somewhat sporadic production of gold throughout a long period of years . The veins also contain lead, zinc , and copper, but in the past these metals have not been recovered in important amounts . In reviewing the progress of mining activity in the district , an effort has been made to gather under one cover all available information on former operations , including methods of mining , production, and geology pertinent to the ore deposits , problems encountered, and other factual data that may affect future mining in the district . A special effort has been made to assemble as many maps of former workings as possible in order that these may be preserved and readily available to assist in future exploration. The data presented herein are based on brief reconnaissance examinations made during several weeks spent in the field in September 1946. These are supplemented by information obtained from various individuals actively or formerly connected with operations in the district . Only the principal properties and several of the more outstanding prospects were actually examined. Many of the older workings were inaccessible.

Aug 1, 1949

By Alfred Traverse

The Brandon lignite is a small deposit of very low rank coal near the village of Forestdale in the town of Brandon, Vt. It occurs in association with other sediments, principally sands and silts. This lignitic coal has attracted considerable scientific interest since the middle of the 19th century because of the abundance of fossils in the sediment and the rarity of lignite in New England. A cooperative investigation has been developed by E. S. Barghoorn, W. Spackman, and the author in which different phases of the problem have been worked on in a coordinated research program. This paper presents results of an investigation of the very abundant fossil pollen and spores and some other microfossils of the deposit. The studies on which this manuscript is based were made in large part at Harvard University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a Ph. D. degree.

Jan 1, 1955

By Theodore H. Boggs

The battle of the gold standard is not limited to one country alone, or even to a single group of countries. It is being waged merrily in many important commercial and industrial quarters. Though it is not always a practical issue calling for immediate attention, it is none the less, quite widely, engaging the thought of bankers and other students of finance. The controversy arises, in the last analysis, because of the desire of men to secure a stable currency. There are two ways of restoring a reasonably stable currency system: (1) the re-establishment of the gold standard, or (2) the deliberate and artificial management of a paper currency. Both systems are well known. The gold standard was in use prior to the war in the principal commercial countries. A currency of inconvertible paper has been at times employed in the past in various countries; for example in Britain from 1797 to 1821, and in the United States from 1862 to 1879. The gold standard, as all are aware, implies the selection of gold as the standard of value. The unit of value is a fixed weight of gold and, so long as the standard remains unimpaired, all other means of payment are maintained at a parity with standard gold coins. And gold coins alone constitute the standard money, inasmuch as their value as bullion equals their value as coins. Under the gold standard this would not be true of any other form of money, although all other varieties of money, including bank notes, government notes and silver coins would be freely convertible into gold money. Strictly speaking, the gold standard also implies that the gold money in turn shall itself be freely convertible, through melting, into gold bullion and freely exportable.

Jan 1, 1925