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By Richard Jr. Ray, Richard Druesedow

The Virginia Operations of Consolidation Coal Co. include a diversity of mine fan configurations which have been tested to quantify pressure losses through the inlet ductwork. Airflow and pressure measurements were taken at four shaft sites to calculate losses for the 90-degree bend at the top of the shaft and the self-closing dampers or closing doors located between the shaft and fan. Velocity contours were then developed from the test data to determine flow patterns in each fan system component. In addition, yaw and pitch angles of airflow through the fan annulus were measured to evaluate turbulence levels created by various inlet ductwork designs. The test results indicate that proper design of the shaft collar and ductwork arrangement for main mine fans can substantially reduce system pressure losses and air turbulence. BY minimizing the pressure drop experienced on the surface, these design improvements enable the bulk of the total pressure developed by the fan(s) to be utilized in the mine.

Jan 1, 1995

By D. J. Barratt

What is meant by "Minimizing Risk"? This paper explores some of the factors encountered in plant design which can affect the success of a mineral processing plant in terms of its planned output, quality of product and recovery. Any deficiency in either one of these objectives means lost revenue at the start of a project and reduced present value for the mine life. Time is money. Related factors such as project conception, feasibility studies, capital cost and operating cost estimation and mining studies have been covered in a recent paper (1) from which material for this paper has been drawn. What follows is a discussion of the principal factors which can influence the success of a project with particular emphasis placed on processing concepts.

Jan 1, 1983

By James Goldberg, Sally Zadra, Wiliam Reisz

Early recognition and risk assessment is critical to sustaining a safe and productive blasting operation. While every blasting environment holds inherent risk, highwall blasting in highly congested areas such as Hanson Material Service Corporation’s Romeoville and Thornton quarries in the greater south Chicago metropolitan area can be particularly perilous

Jan 1, 2008

By David G. Hammond

INTRODUCTION Previous papers and discussions at this conference have already covered the subjects of identification and nature of risks, allocation of risks and contractual arrangements. In this portion of the conference, in the light of topics already covered, we will consider how to minimize risks and how to mitigate losses. Webster defines mitigate as "to make less severe or painful", an apt definition for our purpose! RISK MANAGEMENT POLICY The first thing that must be said about risks, especially in construction, is that they exist and that they don't necessarily fall alike on the just and the unjust. Some risks, i.e., some kinds of risks, must be recognized as inevitable in engineering and construction and therefore must philosophically and realistically be accepted as part of situations to be dealt with. Dealing with means minimizing, covering, and sharing of risks and doesn't mean merely passing off the risks to someone else. While some risks can be avoided, for example, whether the structure will fall down or the excavation will cave in, risks management primarily deals with: A. minimizing risks---whomever risk it may be B. equitable sharing of those risks among the participants.

Jan 1, 1979

By C. O. Aksoy

There is a long history of coal production in Turkey with electric energy generated from power plants since the 1950s. However, the cost of power generation is high. Therefore, it has become necessary to find a means of decreasing production costs to become more competitive in a global market. This paper attempts to economically minimize the overall operating costs of a dragline-shovel-truck system applied at an open pit mine that has fed the Yatagan power plant since 1979, lowering the lignite production cost, and indirectly, the overall electricity generation unit cost. Systems currently in place, as a result of former optimization studies, are time-consuming and expensive to re-implement to comply with today’s very different geometric and economic conditions affecting mining operations. In such cases, rather than re-optimization, it is more viable to identify the parameters that affect the minimum unit cost, via a cost minimization study, allowing present mine equipment to be utilized more efficiently. Unit cost minimization analyses are subject to the capacity of the pool of mining equipment available, combined with the mining block geometry from pre-stripping onwards. In this overall unit cost minimization study, P&H shovels and CAT 777 trucks with capacities of 15 yd3 and 77 tons, respectively, were used in truck-shovel pre-stripping operations. A 65 yd3 Marion 8050 dragline was used to expose the overburden immediately over the coal seam. Pre-stripping bench heights varied from 8 m to 20 m and dragline bench heights from 20 m and 25 m were evaluated to minimize the unit cost of field operations. Total overburden extended to a depth of 60 m (35 m to 40 m for pre-stripping). Minimization analyses performed on the pre-stripping truck-shovel operation, prior to dragline operations, determined that the shovel bench height should be 15 m requiring a dragline bench height of 25 m.

Jan 1, 2005

By N. Djordjevic

Introduction The vibration energy that travels beyond the zone of rock breakage is wasted - all it does is cause damage and annoyance. Under favorable geologic conditions, this energy may travel many kilometers before it finally drops bellow the background noise level. This has forced the introduction of more restrictive limits to the allowable vibration levels. To maintain the profitability of a mine or quarry and to comply with environmental protection legislation, blasting needs to be performed in a more predictable way that will ensure that the final results are optimal in both mining and environmental terms. Minimization of ground and induced structural vibration is, therefore, a matter of good blasting practice -not just an attempt to avoid complaints from neighbors. A new approach to blast vibration minimization is presented. The method utilizes the existence of the local minimums in the frequency spectrum of single-hole blast vibration. The results are presented as a delay map showing maximum ground or structural vibration velocity for many combinations of interhole and interrow delays. A blast engineer can use this map to select an optimal combination of delays that will produce a low vibration velocity at a selected location and, at the same time, will be acceptable from the point of view fragmentation or muck pile shape. Response of structures A typical single-story building has two distinctive forms of vibration. The first form is a translatory vibration of the building superstructure (frame), and the second form is a flexural-bending vibration of the structural elements such as walls and floors (Siskind et al., 1980). Walls and floors will have several modes of oscillation. The most important is the fundamental mode of the vibration, as this mode will have the lowest frequency, the largest amplitude and will cause the largest deformations. The vibration of walls and floors is also a source of secondary vibration within a building, due to the movement of loose objects, e.g., furniture and wall fittings (Dowding, 1985). The subjective estimate of the amplitude of a vibration by the occupants of a house will be unrealistically high due to the effect of the secondary vibrations. It is now well recognized that human perception of ground vibration begins at levels that are far below those that will produce minor damage to the most fragile structures. In mining and quarrying operations, complaints regarding vibration levels tend to be determined more by human perception or annoyance rather than by observations of damage. Ground vibrations on the order of 0.08 mm/s (0.0032 ips) (Walter and Walter, 1979; Murray, 1987) can be felt, and they are often subjectively estimated to be about 100 times greater. Amplification of ground vibration in the structure depends on the amount of energy in the ground vibration spectrum that is in the vicinity of the structure's resonant frequencies together with the damping ratio of the structure at these particular frequencies. One way to avoid significant vibration amplification in a structure is to shift the dominant part of the ground vibration away from the resonant frequency range of the structure. The presented method allows for the selection of the optimum blast timing (interhole and interrow delay times) to minimize the resultant ground vibration amplitudes in a given frequency range. It also allows the selection of suboptimal, but still acceptable, blast delay times, which may be preferable from the point of view of overall blast performance. Determining frequency ranges of importance in structures In attempting to avoid amplification of vibrations in the structure, ground vibration amplitude of frequencies close to the resonant frequencies of the building needs to be minimized. The width of the frequency-minimization region is determined by the value of damping in the building. If the damping ratio is low, then the frequency-minimization region around the resonant frequency will be relatively broad. By shifting the dominant part of the ground-vibration energy into the frequency region much higher than the resonant frequency of the building (1.5 to 2 times), it is possible to achieve efficient vibration isolation of the building. In such cases, the structural dynamic amplification of ground vibration will be less than unity. The first step in this minimization process is the determination of the structural resonant frequency. From the frequency spectrum, it is possible to determine the resonant frequency of the structure. Sometimes the

Jan 1, 1998

By N. Djordjevic

The vibration energy that travels beyond the zone of rock breakage is wasted - all it does is cause damage and annoyance. Under favorable geologic conditions, this energy may travel many kilometers before it finally drops bellow the background noise level. This has forced the introduction of more restrictive limits to the allowable vibration levels. To maintain the profitability of a mine or quarry and to comply with environmental protection legislation, blasting needs to be performed in a more predictable way that will ensure that the final results are optimal in both mining and environmental terms. Minimization of ground and induced structural vibration is, therefore, a matter of good blasting practice - not just an attempt to avoid complaints from neighbors. A new approach to blast vibration minimization is presented. The method utilizes the existence of the local minimums in the frequency spectrum of single-hole blast vibration. The results are presented as a delay map showing maximum ground or structural vibration velocity for many combinations of interhole and interrow delays. A blast engineer can use this map to select an optimal combination of delays that will produce a low vibration velocity at a selected location and, at the same time, will be acceptable from the point of view fragmentation or muck pile shape.

Jan 1, 1997

By G. T. Lapidus

One of Society’s major concerns with hydrometallurgical processing is the large amount of water that is quintessential to its nature. This is especially troubling in arid areas, where the population struggles to procure potable water for their daily needs. For that reason, it has become our responsibility to conceive, design and implement processing schemes that not only use as little water as possible, but recycle streams within the plant itself and minimize waste that exits its perimeter. With this in mind, the conference will center on the importance of selecting the appropriate chemical systems and integrating material balances to avoid reagent overkill and to detect impurity accumulation. The three “R’s” (reuse, recycle and recovery) of aqueous solutions within the processes are emphasized. Examples of processes for the recovery of lead, copper, precious and PG metals from minerals and waste materials will be presented.

By E. Jackson

This paper describes highlights of the Placer Dome MiniMole project - the development and testing of a robotic machine for mining narrow ore veins. A prototype hydraulically controlled robotic machine was built and tested. The machine provided a platform for testing numerous cutters in the field. Other cutters, e.g. undercutting devices, were tested in the lab. Extensive analyses were done on specific energies and cutter penetration. Three sets of quarry trials were done, then the machine was tested in an underground mine. Rock UCS values varied from 180 MPa to 230 MPa. The paper includes lessons learned and recommendations based on the project findings.

Jan 1, 2007

By P. D. Lightfoot, C. Badeen, R. Turcotte, D. E. C. Jones

Following localized (i.e. hot-spot) ignition, there is a minimum pressure required for combustion to propagate in water-based commercial explosives. The latter is usually referred to as the ‘Minimum Burning Pressure’ (MBP) of the explosive. In the present work, both an apparatus based on hot-wire ignition and an associated methodology were developed to measure the MBP of water-based explosives. It was demonstrated that the MBP constitutes a sharp pressure threshold below which the probability of inducing sustained burning in these explosives becomes very small. It was found that each emulsion explosive tested has a distinct MBP value, which depends critically on its formulation. It appears that this test may offer a firm basis for the classification of emulsion explosives for regulatory purposes.

Jan 1, 2004

By Richard E. Otoo, Evan J. Owen, Virginia T. McLemore

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a critical mineral is one that is essential to the economic well -being of a nation and whose supply may be disrupted due to geological, geopolitical or environmental factors (Nassar et al., 2020). For example, REEs are critical to the production of electricvehicle motors as well as wind turbines, yet China’s share of their global production rose to more than 95 percent in 2010 (IEA, 2021). China’s share has since declined, with production quotas dropping to nearly 70 percent by 2023 (Statista, 2023). This and similar situations with many of the critical minerals raise deep global concerns about supply-chain vulnerabilities (Bauer et al., 2011). Critical minerals are used in the production of renewable energy, electronics, agricultural products and common household items (McLemore, 2020). As the global demand for these minerals continues to grow, it is not sufficient to rely solely on scaling up production from existing operations. While increasing production from known deposits can provide short-term relief, long-term resource security requires discovering new, economically viable mineral resources. One of the most effective ways to secure future supply is through mineral exploration, which increases the global inventory of critical minerals and also minimizes risks posed by market monopolies and political instability. The major challenge of mineral exploration lies not only in identifying mineralized deposits but also in determining whether discovered concentrations are sufficient to warrant further investigation and development. A fundamental concept in this decision-making process is using cut-off grade. In this article, cut-off grade refers to the minimum concentration of minerals required to justify further exploration efforts based on factors such as type and size of mineral deposit, mining and processing technologies, associated byproducts/coproducts and the market price of these minerals. Typically, economic cut-off grades are used to determine whether a mineral deposit can be mined profitably. However, this article focuses on preliminary cut-off grades needed to establish whether the amounts of critical minerals within a deposit are high enough to justify further exploration and detailed evaluations. By comparing mineral deposit grades, size, production and extraction technology, and other economic factors with established and active mines, exploration teams can estimate cut-off grades that justify further exploration.

Aug 1, 2025

By Richard E. Otoo, Evan J. Owen, Virginia T. McLemore

Disruption in critical minerals supply chains has resulted in the evaluation of various types of mineral deposits for critical minerals potential. Much of the study on critical minerals focuses on occurrence and characterization, but little research has addressed what concentrations of critical minerals in a mineral deposit are required to make an exploration target into an operating mine. Understanding the cut-off grades of ore deposits being actively mined is one criterion to determine if concentrations in an exploration target are high enough. Cut-off grade is defined as the minimum amount of mineral contained in a ton of ore that is sent to the processing plant. Among many factors, cut-off grade depends upon the size and type of the deposit and mining operation, the processing technique, and market prices. This research does not aim to define cut-offs for determining if a mineral deposit is economic. Rather, it defines estimates of concentrations of critical minerals that could be considered good enough for further exploration. For example, ~2% total rare earth oxide (TREO) is the cut-off grade for Mt. Pass carbonatite, but 500 ppm TREO could be an exploration target for coals.

Feb 1, 2025

By R. Addison, T. Swendseid, R. Kehmeier, D. Larsen, J. Uhrie

"The development of a mining project necessarily progresses through many steps, beginning with the identification of a mineral resource and continuing through project construction. Several classifications of engineering study development are described, including preliminary economic assessment (PEA) or scoping studies, prefeasibility studies (PFS), feasibility studies (FS) and regulatory codes, each with a specific project organizational objective. This paper addresses the PEA, PFS and FS types of reports that are used by companies to evaluate projects, meet regulatory requirements and seek financing. The minimum requirements for engineering studies, focusing on the needs of financial institutions considering investment in a project, are outlined. IntroductionThe financing of mining projects in recent years has come under increased scrutiny by financial institutions owing primarily to an increasing percentage of projects whose capital expenditures had overrun project budgets or had failed to produce the economic returns anticipated during the project development process. Often, unfavorable project outcomes are not the result of widespread failures of the project engineering process but arise from inadequate engineering in limited specific areas of the project scope, such as overestimated mineral reserve, inadequate mine design, insufficient metallurgical testing or underestimated capital costs. Mill facilities and process infrastructure typically are responsible for up to 80 percent of the capital expenditures required by greenfield mining projects. They are often the project areas where capital costs are inadequately developed, and consequently are the areas highly scrutinized by financial institutions. This paper offers a perspective on the level of engineering expected by financial institutions as a prerequisite to committing support to developing mining projects.The evaluation of a mining project from exploration through development and production is a lengthy and complicated process. Mine development commitment activities for a potential project are initiated when a mineral resource is identified and continue through to the start of construction. The technical feasibility and the economic viability of each project are determined during the phases of mine development with more detailed engineering data required at each stage. There are at least four levels of engineering studies during development that are commonly acknowledged by the mining industry:"

Jan 1, 2016

Gold rooms represent a high security area and preventing theft is a challenging task. Where gravity concentrates or high value unit intermediate products are present, particular and specific security procedures must be put in place. This paper describes the development and implementation which reflects best practice in gold room security. Procedures involving key holder systems, key locks, swipe cards and double locks preventing any one person having access to the gold room, including specific procedures for gravity gold concentrators, will be addressed. The use of monitoring and how to deal with alarms and potential hold ups will be reviewed. The use of cameras and archival DVD recorders is common in gold rooms. The use of electronic surveillance, movement detectors, seismic monitors and the two person policy and gold room entry procedures are described, including how to deal with visitors. The importance of confidentiality regarding smelting and gold pick-up days, plus strategies employed to minimise storing large quantities of gold on site will be presented. The role of metallurgical accounting in providing quality auditable information and the minimum standards of record keeping required is discussed. The role of the Gold Squad will be outlined. Regular auditing and risk analysis and several case studies are cited where security was deficient or improved.

Aug 1, 2010

By Luis Hoyos-Reyes, Jesus Gonzalez-Trejo, Adriana Cervantes-Clemente, Marco Gutierrez-Villegas, Manuel Palomar-Pardave, Cesar Real-Ramirez

Recent improvements on Peirce-Smith Converters (PSC) have combined numerical and physical simulations. However, most of the physical simulations have been carried out in cold-water models with only one tuyere. Several authors have proved that 2D numerical simulations do not reproduce the hydrodynamic behavior observed in physical simulations. On the other hand, most of the 3D numerical models have used a PSC thin slice with only one tuyere, but symmetric boundary conditions on the virtual walls have been imposed in order to reproduce the behavior of the whole converter. Therefore, there is no coincidence with the rigid walls of the physical models. The aim of this work is to quantify the effect of the virtual walls boundary conditions of a PSC thin slice and to determine the minimum number of tuyeres to characterize the fluid flow behavior of the entire converter.

Jan 1, 2009

By Egon Pohl, Friedrich Steinhäusler, Werner Hofmann

INTRODUCTION Anticipated increase of nuclear fuel production in the future coincides with growing concern about the occupational health risk of miners from inhaled radon decay products. As a consequence it has been suggested to even lower presently permitted exposure levels (NIOSH, 1980) and implement more stringent control on measurement programmes. Compliance with these regulations requires large investments in new or modified ventilation systems as well as in increased expenditure for staff and instrumentation for health physics operational monitoring. Since both costs are directly related to the overall ore production costs, this can have far reaching implications with regards to the economic feasibility of certain mining operations and consequently reduce estimates of low-cost minable ore reserves. In addition there is increasing evidence that the radon problem is not limited to the nuclear fuel cycle only, but can also represent a significant hazard to non-uranium miners. A key component in the cost-effective implementation of legislative control measures is the monitoring system employed. The choice of system is decisive for the total costs of installation and maintenance, manpower requirements and accuracy of nuclide determination. In the following operational specifications are defined for monitors in mining and milling environments. Different types of available instrumentation are discussed with regard to their suitability for practical radiation protection in underground mines, open cut mines and mills. ATMOSPHERIC CHARACTERISTICS Underground mines Radon in the air of underground mining operations is exhaled from surrounding rock surfaces, crushed material and, to a lesser extent, from water seepage. Whilst in uranium mines radon releasing ore bodies are generally localized in distinct areas, radon sources in non-uranium mines can be very dispersed throughout the system of mine tunnels. The ventilation scheme used influences the absolute atmospheric level of radon as well as the equilibrium conditions between radon and its decay products (factor F). In uranium mines mechanical forced-air ventilation is normally the only way to achieve and maintain legally required nuclide levels. This causes the F-factor to be rather low, e.g. in French CFA-mines F is of the order of 0.2 (Francois, Pradel, Zettwoog, 1975). At the same time the fraction of unattached radon decay products (fp) can increase due to the high air velocities employed. However, it is possible to find non-uranium mines with either natural draught ventilation only or assisted on demand by forced air ventilation during special operations or climatic conditions. Thereby the F-factor is more dependent on seasonal changes of temperature differences between outdoors and mine atmosphere and work routines. As a result F can cover a wide range from 0.02 to 0.95 (Steinhäusler, 1976). The use of filters or electro-precipitators in mine ventilation systems can modify the atmospheric characteristics twofold as it generally decreases the content of radon decay products, but at the same time increases the content of the unattached fraction fp . Average concentration levels of radon decay products are mostly lower in mechanically ventilated non-uranium mines than in equally ventilated uranium mines and are below 0.3 Working Level (UNSCEAR, 1977). However, some working places in non-uranium mines, specially with only natural draught ventilation can occassionally approach maximum permissible levels as defined for uranium mines (Strong, Laidlaw, O&apos;Riordan, 1975; Snihs, 1976; Sciocchetti, Scacco, Clemente, 1981). Open pit- and surface mines Radionuclide levels of radon decay products in the atmosphere of these mines are mostly too low to represent a significant inhalation hazard for miners, ranging typically from 0.03 to 0.1 Working Level (Steinhäusler, 1976). However, personnel using airpurifying respirators or working in cabins ventilated with filtered air can be exposed to a radon atmosphere with low value for the F-factor (F [<] 0.1) and high fp-value up to 80 % (Leach and Lokan, 1979). Mills Atmospheric radon concentration in crushing, grinding, drying and packing sections depends on the radium 226 content of the ore, ore storage methods and ventilation system employed. Providing adequate ventilation ([>] 2 air changes per hour) and control of dust production radon and its decay products represent only a minor problem (Saconney, 1979). MONITORING OF OCCUPATIONAL EXPOSURE Objectives Operational monitoring of the working places provides information on: - confirmation of appropriate control of the routine mining methods employed - indication of abnormal conditions. Although this type of monitoring enables the location

Jan 1, 1981

By J. A. Finch, Zhenghe Xu, Z. A. Zhou

A particle-bubble collision model was used to investigate the minimum recovery zone height, H(r,min) required for flotation columns. The criterion used to define H(r,min) is that height which gives unit collision probability. It is shown that H(r,min) is determined by particle and bubble size, gas hold-up and bubble-bubble interaction. Under typical operating conditions, for flotation of particles less that 10 micrometres in size H(r,min) is greater than 10 m, but it reduces to less than 1 m for particles greater than 100 micrometres

Aug 1, 1995

By M G. Hawtin

The Rocklands copper project is a multilode, iron oxide copper gold (IOCG) + cobalt mineralised system located in the Eastern Fold Belt of the Mt Isa Inlier. Rocklands orebodies cover a range of oxidation zones from oxide, to supergene and primary. Each zone contains different economic minerals of interest. The supergene zones contain significant amounts of native copper and the primary zones are dominated by chalcopyrite. The juxtaposition of these oxidation zones and minerals make it an interesting mineralisation system.Current mine production sampling collects a nominal 3 kg drill chip sample from a 1 m composite, RC drilled interval. A site specific sampling procedure was needed to quantify introduced sampling error when taking grade control samples. Due to oxidation and mineralogical variation in ore zones we needed to develop a practically achievable sampling methodology that ensures minimum sample mass and sample error requirements are achieved to ensure ‘representative’ samples for all ore types.These issues are planned to be resolved using an experimentally derived method using principles from the Theory of Sampling. This method uses an experimental calibration of parameters K and a for Gy’s fundamental sampling error formula using a modified 32-piece sampling tree experiment to compile sampling nomograms for the primary and supergene ores. This paper demonstrates the process undertaken to improve the quality and standard of existing mine production sampling procedures at the Rocklands operation.Results indicate a sample mass of 5 kg for RC drill chips is appropriate for both the primary and supergene ores to achieve a fundamental error below 0.01 or 10 per cent relative error, which is slightly higher than the existing sampling protocol of 3 kg. An additional experiment is recommended to compile sampling nomograms using the exact laboratory comminution and mass reduction stage information to assess the use of a 3 kg sample. The results also indicate no changes are required to existing sampling protocols when sampling RC drill chips in primary and supergene ore at Rocklands.Sampling nomogram results also provide a useful ‘rule of thumb’ reference guide to other mining and exploration companies to help understand minimum sample mass requirements and sampling error during exploration drilling, resource evaluation and mining production stages when targeting similar IOCG mineralised systems. A sample mass of 5 kg is recommended when RC drilling similarly IOCG mineralised prospects and deposits in the Cloncurry area. Future test work is recommended when additional open cuts become active as well as including resource drilling drill core to provide better three-dimensional sample representivity.CITATION:Hawtin, M G, 2017. Minimum sample mass from reverse circulation grade control drilling at Rocklands copper project, in Proceedings Tenth International Mining Geology Conference 2017, pp 337–346 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Sep 20, 2017

By John Nadolski

Intensive hydrologic monitoring of the Powder river basin has been on-going since the early 1970&apos;s. Data were used in environ- mental assessments and for determination of hydrologic consequences associated with coal mining activities. For most coal mine operators, data collection has continued in this baseline mode with little or no statistical analysis of the data and with no statistical procedure established to detect changes in groundwater quality. For the past four years Powder River Coal Company has studied several statistical techniques to analyze groundwater quality. Three objectives were pursued: 1) to determine the baseline water quality for key aquifers; 2) to determine which wells could be deleted from the monitoring program without reducing monitoring effectiveness; and 3) to define a statistical test to determine water quality changes. Knowledge of the regional geo-hydrologic system was combined with an analysis of the water quality monitoring in order to identify homogeneous aquifer zones. All wells within an aquifer zone were treated as one population, and a t-test was used to determine the minimum number of samples needed to define the water quality for each aquifer zone. Results indicate that the data for each aquifer zone were nor- mally distributed and that groundwater quality could be defined using a fairly small number of samples. Because of the minimum sample size test, groundwater quality sampling was reduced by between 75 and 85 percent.

Jan 1, 1989

By R. Mohan Srivastava

"The goal of estimation is considered in the light of decision analysis. A simple example reveals the essential elements of decision-making in the face of uncertainty. A second example shows that these elements are also key features of many mining decisions. These two examples cause us to revive an old probabilistic notion that the goal of estimation should be to quantify what is unknown. The conditional probability distribution provides the complete statement of one&apos;s uncertainty. Once the conditional probability distribution has been established, one should retain as an estimate the value which minimizes some objective loss function. A third example shows how the ""best"" estimate depends on the chosen loss function. Current practice is almost exclusively based on the least squares method, which assumes a loss function which penalizes underestimation and overestimation equally. This is unfortunate not only because symmetry is an unrealistic assumption but also because mining offers a rare opportunity to state the loss function directly in terms of profitability. Both the theoretical framework and the practical tools exist to allow us to reconsider the conventional notion of the ""best"" estimate. IntroductionThis paper looks at estimation in the mining industry from the point-of-view of decision analysis. Virtually all decisions depend on estimates since few of the important parameters are ever known exactly. In this paper we will be referring mainly to the estimation of ore grades, though the approach discussed here is generally applicable to any decision in which relevant information is uncertain.In the first section we look at a very simple example of decision-making in the face of uncertainty. We will then tum to a mining example and see that the essential features of the simple example still pertain. From these two examples it will be clear that the decision analysis approach rests on two key concepts: the conditional probability distribution and the loss function. A third example demonstrates how different loss functions produce different ""best"" estimates from the same conditional probability distribution. In the final sections we willexamine the current practice of estimation in the mining industry. Though the tools for estimating the conditional probability distribution already exist, a change in the way we think about ""best"" estimates is needed. Very little attention is presently paid to the loss function even though it is readily available in many mining applications."

Jan 1, 1987