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By S. E. Phillipson

The MSHA Technical Support, Roof Control Division's primary evaluation tool for coal pillar designs is the Analysis of Coal Pillar Stability (ACPS) program. However, ACPS is limited to evaluating interactions between two seams at a time, which is not ideal for complex multiple- seam scenarios. Further, it does not recognize the influence of strata properties in the interburden and cannot be used to evaluate individual pillars. We apply the Rocscience RS2 two-dimensional finite element program as a complement to ACPS. Complex multiple-seam scenarios can be characterized by a modified pillar stability factor where the ACPS single-seam development pillar stability factor is multiplied by the ratio of average single-seam development stress to the stress in the critical pillar at the multiple-seam stage, using the values of o as predicted by RS2. Several series of test examples involving two-seam analyses with isolated remnants, gob-solid boundaries, and high extraction areas of varying width were used to calibrate simulated gob properties such that the ACPS+RS2 method generated results that matched a traditional ACPS Stability Factor to within 13%. As high-extraction areas become wider and deeper, progressively stiffer gob is simulated by increasing the Young's Modulus property in RS2. After achieving calibration with the test series, three examples of complex multiple-seam scenarios were evaluated, using reasonable properties for strata types and thicknesses based on core log data. Resulting modified stability factors are reasonably close to those predicted by ACPS, although affected by units of sandstone in the interburden and gob shadows superimposed on remnant structures. This tends to show that even in complex multiple-seam conditions, applying ACPS to the worst-case interaction should usually result in an acceptable pillar design.

Jun 25, 2024

By Syd Peng, W. B. Guo, F. Du, L. Yang, J. Yw. Cheng

The annual ICGCM China was initiated in 2014. Up to 2023, ICGCM China has been held 9 times. In the 9 conferences during the past 10 years, about 559 papers in 17 topical areas were presented and attendance ranged from 200+ to 400+ each conference. The 42nd ICGCM China was held in Xiangtan, Hunan, China, 10/20–10/22/2023. There were 86 papers presented in 26 topical areas. In addition, an MS and PhD Research Forum was held concurrently with 36 papers presented by MS and PhD candidates in mining engineering from 8 schools. The conference plays an important role in cultivating advanced degree student talents. In this paper, all 559 papers reviewed previously were summarized. In addition, the 42nd ICGCM China is used to illustrate the current and future development trends of coal mine ground control in China. It summarizes the 122 papers (including 36 MS and PhD forum papers) grouping into, and in terms of, 26 topical areas. In addition, its unique and innovative subject areas, short summary of developments as well as conference strengths and shortcomings will also be presented.

Jun 25, 2024

By Delbert Hamilton, Christopher Snyder

In the last three years there have been four uncontrolled heating events in mines that have been attributed to the use of polyurethane foam as a void fill product. These heating events are due to the exothermic reaction that occurs during application of these polymeric products. These events led the Mine Safety and Health Administration to issue a safety alert on polyurethane products used in void filling and ground consolidation in mining, with the goal of educating the mining community about this potential hazard. This paper provides an overview of various types of polymeric products and best practices, the factors that contributed to the heating events, and case studies involving polymeric products.

Jun 25, 2024

By Jin Zhao, Weijie Wei, Jinwang Zhang, Xiaohang Wan, Shengli Yang

Reasonable mining-retention ratio (ratio of room width to pillar width) is vital to recovery rate and stope stability in underground mining of solid potassium salt deposits. Based on the engineering background of a solid underground potassium salt mine in Khammouan Province, characteristics of the plastic zone of the pillar, and the variation of recovery rate and stope stability under different mining-retention ratio conditions are discussed. The results show that compared with current room width (8 m) and pillar width (10 m), the optimization method of improvement of stope stability. The research results are helpful to recover as much solid potash resources as possible under the premise of ensuring the stability of stope.

Jun 25, 2024

By Steve Hicks, Zach Agioutantis, Greg Hasenfus, Zach Wedding

Most prediction methods used to calculate mining-induced subsidence rely on empirical formulations, which typically assume flat topography and uniform properties in the overburden. It is also well known that when a longwall panel mines below a valley bottom surface ground deformation magnitudes and orientations may be significantly influenced by the presence of the valley. This paper discusses ground deformation data collected at different surface locations above the Buchanan mine in the eastern United States. Measurements at individual surface points and strata movement measurements using a three-point extensometer have been collected as the area was undermined. Measurements correspond to the mining of the panel immediately under the measurement points and to the mining of adjacent panels. Measurement locations correspond to valley bottom locations. The measurements are critically evaluated and compared with respect to topography and panel face location. The issue of the fluctuation of GPS measurements is also discussed.

Jun 25, 2024

By Peter Zhang, Daniel Su, Bo Kim, Berk Tulu

This paper summarizes significant findings from the ongoing NIOSH Gas Well Stability research over the past decade; in particular, the important ground control engineering considerations. Longwall-induced surface and subsurface deformations may induce gas well casing deformations and stresses, depending on a few parameters such as overburden depth, overburden geology, topographic relief, strata dip, gas well setback distance, and a gas well casing cementing alternative. Overburden depth to the mining seam is one of the most influential factors; shallow overburden depth induces large horizontal displacement and resulting casing deformation and stress, while deep overburden depth induces large longwall-induced vertical pressure. Overburden geology is another important factor affecting the longwall- induced casing deformations and stresses; the large contrast of bending stiffness at the soft-to-hard rock interfaces tends to induce large casing deformations and stresses. Large surface topographic relief and the presence of soft-to-hard rock interfaces below the stream valley bottoms may shift longwall-induced subsurface gas well casing deformations closer to the surface, thus having less impact on underground. mining operations. Strata dip magnifies longwall-induced deformations by 20% per degree of strata dip for down dip longwall excavations. The gas well setback distance is also a critical geometric parameter; the effect of longwall-induced deformation decreases exponentially as the setback distance increases. Longwall-induced casing deformation and stress will be mitigated or totally uncoupled for uncemented production casing.

Jun 25, 2024

By Shawn Boltz, Erik Westman, Derrick Chambers, Xingdong Zhaoa, Qiankun Zhua

Microseismic passive velocity tomography is becoming an effective technology for large-scale mining-induced stress monitoring in underground mines, especially in the field of early warning of mining-induced hazards. Aiming at the problems of missing low-magnitude events in traditional microseismic monitoring, as well as the potential to increase the resolution of the tomograms in both time and space, a microseismic passive velocity tomography analysis method based on the template matching method was proposed. First, the template matching method was used to pick microseismic events. Then, the probabilistic, non-linear, global-search earthquake location method was used to locate the events and calculate travel time and travel distance. Finally, the fast-marching method was used to carry out passive velocity tomography analysis to image the movement of the abutment stress associated with the longwall. The results show that the selected templates can identify more microseismic events than the traditional microseismic analysis, and the variation trend of events in each day is consistent with the data from the traditional analysis. Using microseismic event locations, travel times and travel distance can effectively complete microseismic passive velocity tomography analysis in each day during the study period and can effectively identify the forward and side abutment stress zones of that longwall panel. This study provides a reference for the identification of mine-induced high stress zones, which has implications for hazard identification and mitigation, with increased resolution of the tomograms in time and space.

Jun 25, 2024

By Grażyna Dzik, Adam Mirek, Krzysztof Król

The Upper Silesian Coal Basin is located in the area of the Upper Silesian Syncline and belongs to one of the most complex tectonic units in Europe. It occupies 5,650 km2. In 2020, there were 20 hard coal mines operating in the area. Seismological research in this area consists of observation of precursors/symptoms of shock generation and understanding of their effects. Studies (Teisseyre R. 1972, Mutke G. & Stec K. 1997, Stec K. 2007, Dubiński J. & other 2010, Idziak A. 2010) of complex impacts of rock mass provided a background for determining the conditions for the formation of exploitation and regional seismic shocks. Issues related to tectonic and exploitation stresses, successive extraction of coal seams at higher depths, operation in the vicinity of fault zones, often complex geological and organic conditions result in the activation of a discontinuity surface due to stress caused by deformation of rock layers, which, as a result, causes the emergence of strong shocks above 107 J. The article was based on analyses of extraction value, high-energy shocks, both of mining and tectonic-mining (so-called regional shocks) origin, against the background of changing operating conditions, which, as a result, creates an image of periodically changing seismic activity and location of strong shocks. Observation results show that, with an increase in exploitation depth and declining extraction, the number of strong shocks caused by tectonic stress (107 - 109 J) and exploitation stress (≥105 J) has been steadily increasing over the last 25 years.

Apr 26, 2022

By Atsushi Sainoki

Induced seismicity is deeply related to various engineering projects entailing anthropogenic in-situ stress change in deep underground. Hence, there is a persistent demand for estimating and mitigating the risk. Significant efforts have been made in simulating induced seismicity with a variety of numerical simulation techniques; however, there are still discrepancies between characteristics of induced seismicity numerically simulated and observed in the field. One of such discrepancies is the simulation of triggered seismicity defined as seismic events caused by an infinitesimal amount of anthropogenic stress change, which is frequently observed in geological structures. The present study aims to develop a methodology to simulate triggered seismicity whilst reproducing a complex stress state in a fault zone. For the purpose, a discrete fracture network within a fault damage zone is first generated. Then, an equivalent continuum model, in which each zone has a different anisotropic compliance tensor, is constructed by employing the crack tensor theory. A fault core is simulated at the center of the model with interface elements. Using the equivalent continuum model, an initial stress condition is simulated with the boundary traction method, which results in a very complex stress state with stress anomalies due to the stiffness anisotropy and heterogeneity. Subsequently, the effective normal stress on the fault plane is decreased in a stepwise manner to induce slip. The result demonstrated that many seismic events are induced on the fault plane with a slight decrease in the confining stress, thus being regarded as triggered seismic event. Further analysis on this seismic activity shows that the magnitude of triggered seismic events is inconsistent with the amount of shear stress drop, implying that a relatively small triggered seismic event could produce a large stress drop, generating locally intense ground motions and thus inducing severe damage to the nearby rock mass.

Apr 26, 2022

By Klein E., Kinscher J., Lizeur A., De Santis F., Lhoumaud E.

Seismic repeaters are rarely observed phenomena in underground mines. However, recent studies in Garpenberg mine (Sweden) have demonstrated that seismic repeaters and multiplets may represent significant portion of the total number of microseismic events (> 80 %) related to excavation operations. Detailed seismic analysis, involving template matching, multiplet clustering, double-difference relocation, source parameter and mechanism estimation, and interevent time analysis, suggest that seismic repeaters represent brittle frictional parts (asperity) of creeping, planar shaped, pre-exiting structures of several meters length. It is furthermore suggested that seismic repeater occur preferentially in weak rock-mass materials (e.g. talc) associated with strengthening friction behaviors. These results may imply that postblast related stress redistribution may be governed by “silent” aseismic movements in preferentially weak rock mass materials, what questions the reliability and performance of seismic monitoring to survey stress evolution during excavation operations. However, once the seismic and aseismic coupling processes and the geological nature linked to repeater occurrences are better understood, their detailed monitoring bears also opportunities to survey and quantify aseismic post-blast stress transfer. Here we present ongoing investigations on repeater occurrences aiming at better understating on their geological and geomechanical origin. Furthermore, we try to develop advanced monitoring tools helping to quantify aseismic slip and to provide criteria for seismic hazard as asperity density and the related potential to generate larger dynamic rupture zones. For this respect a local monitoring network has been set up close to certain repeater target families. Furthermore, geological well log drilling throughout repeater occurrences as well as geotechnical strain measurements (e.g. extensometer, optical fiber etc.) are currently conducted to provide crucial information on the geological nature of repeater and to quantify and characterize background creep induced from excavation.

Apr 26, 2022

By Jurgens PE Hamman, Faisal Putra, Hadnaltias Alpeki, Willem de Beer

The Deep Ore Zone mine is the third lift of caving at PT Freeport Indonesia’s East Ertsberg Skarn System. An increasing trend in seismicity along the northern boundary of the DOZ cave, as well as the northern fringes of the DOZ production and infrastructure levels, was taken as indicative of an interaction between the approaching DMLZ cave and the DOZ subsidence zone. Seismicity trends and locations indicated a reducing crown pillar and an associated stress increase along these DOZ excavations, as well as the regional area along the DOZ cave boundaries. Although rockbursts were not identified as an immediate hazard, seismic shakedown was a highly probable hazard in the case of remote large (≥3.0) seismic events. An evaluation process, as described in the Canadian Rockburst Support Handbook (1996), was followed to identify and quantify the various parameters that could contribute to a shakedown evaluation. A shakedown assessment, based on the Peak Particle Velocities scaling relation, was conducted to assess the current installed ground support systems along the northern fringes and the fixed facilities of the DOZ mine. The range in ground support systems were mostly due to different geotechnical environments. The load–deformation characteristics of these support systems were evaluated to determine the support capacity and compared to the potential support demand under varying shakedown conditions. Shakedown hazard maps were compiled to indicate the installed ground support system’s vulnerability to seismic shaking. Based on this information, areas were divided into zones indicating whether they were sufficiently supported, additional support was required, access was to be restricted, and / or they were to be abandoned. Mine management utilised these hazard maps to strategize actions for the various operational zones within the DOZ, including the fixed facilities. This paper briefly describes the derivation of the PPV scaling relationship. Seismic and geological data for the DMLZ – DOZ interaction areas were evaluated to determine the likely source of large events. Subsequent larger events and their effects are shown to assess the veracity of the magnitude and PPV estimates, as well as the effectiveness and appropriateness of the ground support systems.

Apr 26, 2022

By KOKOWSKI J., RUDZIŃSKI Ł.

The LUMINEOS network was established in 2013 to monitor mining-induced seismicity in Legnica-Głogów Copper District (LGCD), located in south-western Poland. Since the starting time, the network was improved and today consists of 17 seismometers and 10 accelerometers. Up to now, the strongest recorded earthquake in the region had Mw4.0. Both raw seismic data and earthquakes catalog for events recorded by the LUMINEOS network are fully open and available on the EPISODES platform (https://tcs.ah-epos.eu/#episode:LGCD). During the last 7 years, the network improvements gave us a possibility to increase location accuracy for shallow mining events. This accuracy is influenced by factors such as the configuration of seismic stations, noise level at seismic stations, and the influence of the velocity model. Here we encountered two main issues which are worth to discuss. The first one is the low detection threshold of two seismic stations and their significant impact on the location errors. The second one is the large uncertainty in the S-wave picking. Even though S-waves are not so clearly visible on seismograms, they are very helpful in the estimation of source location and strength of seismic events in the region. In our work, we present the history of LUMINEOS network and corresponding improvement on location accuracy as well as the influence of noisy stations on the error distribution and how it is connected with location results. We also investigate the effect of the S-wave phases and how they are related to the accuracy of the earthquakes locations in the network.

Apr 26, 2022

By Kathy Kalenchuk

To develop strategic and tactical strategies to manage seismic hazard in a safe and economic manner, it is necessary to understand the spatial and temporal distribution of mine wide seismogenic behavior. Global mine-scale numerical stress modelling provides a means to forward predict seismic susceptibility thereby facilitating informed decision making for the development and implementation of strategic and tactical risk mitigation measures. To make forward predictions of hazard susceptibility using global stress models with reasonable confidence, it is necessary to rigorously calibrate numerical stress models to the observed history of ground reaction. This paper demonstrates quantifiable methods for calibrating numerical models and developing probabilistic prediction criterion using seismic data. The appropriate applications of model inputs (including boundary conditions, constitutive models and material parameterization) specific to global mine-scale modelling are also discussed. Lastly, this paper demonstrates how the calibration process adds value not only to informed decision making, but also to the improved understanding of site geomechanical conditions; including enhanced identification of geotechnical domains and mechanical indicators required for seismic mechanism domaining.

Apr 26, 2022

By Musa D. Manzi, Raymond J. Durrheim, Richard T. Masethe

Large mining-induced seismic events and their aftershocks cause hazardous working conditions, damage infrastructure, delay production and pose a risk to miners in the deep-level gold mines of South Africa. Stress changes affecting pre-existing zones of weakness are the main drivers of large mining-induced seismic events, which are often followed by aftershocks triggered by quasi-static stress transfer within the rockmass. A better understanding of seismic source mechanisms is important if the seismic data is to be used more effectively for mine planning and to reduce the rockburst risk. Four large seismic events (ML≥2.0) associated with the mining of the Ventersdorp Contact Reef (VCR) at Kloof Gold Mine occurred on 13 June 2017. The events and their fore- and aftershocks were studied in detail to establish the circumstances and the cause of the incidents. The local magnitudes ranged from ML 2.3 to ML 3.0, the seismic moment from 0.69 to 2.25 x 1013 Nm and the source radius from 92 – 150 m. The main shocks were preceded by foreshock sequences, which were especially vigorous in the four hours before the main shock. Seismicity was recorded by in-mine arrays of three-component 4.5Hz geophones (detection threshold approx. ML -2.9). Following all four main seismic events, ML 2.3, ML 2.3, ML 2.9 and ML 3.0, the network detected a total number of 300 aftershocks ranging from ML -2.9 to ML 1.6 spread within a 1300 m radius from the centre of the seismic network. The statistical properties of the aftershocks were analysed using three scaling relationships: (i) Gutenberg–Richter frequency magnitude relationship; (ii) modified Omori’s law; and (iii) Båth’s law for the magnitude of the largest aftershock. The geological or mining feature that controlled the failure (e.g., fault, dyke, pillar, abutment) was determined by calculating the orientation of the nodal planes of the large seismic events using moment tensor analysis and studying the aftershock distributions.

Apr 26, 2022

By Lourens Scheepers

Mining induced seismicity and rockbursts have been part of the deep level gold mining industry in South Africa for many years. One could be forgiven for thinking that we should know everything there is to know by now to have rockbursting under control to a level that it has minimal impact on safety and production. Well, we don’t… There are things we know that we know, and they are implemented, or should be. There are thigs we know that we don’t know, and they are researched, or should be. There are things we don’t know that we don’t know, and, well, we don’t know… We know that seismicity and the associated potential for rockbursts generally increase with an increase in stress (increase in mining depth and/or mining span and creation of remnants) and proximity to faults and dykes. We know there are a number of potential sources of events in a mine; that is: mining abutments, pillar abutments, mining faces and geological structures (faults and dykes). We know there are a number of event mechanisms associated with these sources; that is: slip on a geological structure, shear through intact rock and bursting of the rock near the edge of a mining excavation. One of the tools used more and more and with increased success to identify event source mechanisms is Moment-Tensor analysis (MT). This typically assist in differentiating between three event mechanism components: volumetric deformation component, axial deformation component and slip / shear component. The insight gained from MT assist greatly in identifying the most likely event source to assist in understanding the rockmass response to mining. We know that the seismic response in our mines are mining induced (not natural). This may seem trivial, but it is important to realise that we influence the seismic response with the way we mine, and by how much we mine (extraction ratio). Therefore we put design rules and strategies in place to reduce the seismic hazard and we install rockburst support in our mining excavations. We know the seismic response to mining is influenced by the properties of the rockmass, including strength, stiffness and brittleness, but quantifying its influence is typically more difficult than expected. We know numerical modelling can improve the engineer’s understanding of the potential rockmass response associated with designed mining layouts and strategies. For our environment (narrow, tabular large area) elastic boundary element modelling remains the most convenient and practical approach, but it overestimates the stress at mining abutments and underestimates the stress further away from these abutments. Adding a crushing (based in limit equilibrium) modelling approach vastly improves the boundary element modelling ability to simulate the deformed (interpret fractured) zones and associated redistribution of stress. We don’t know how to quantify what an acceptable seismic risk is. We don’t know if we can mine remnants at an acceptable seismic risk. Some remnants are extracted surprisingly easy, others serve us with devastating rockbursts. The limit equilibrium modelling shows potential to significantly improve our ability to quantify the rockburst risk. We don’t know if large-scale preconditioning is possible and will be effective to significantly reduce the seismic risk associated with remnant and pillar mining. Research is required (and has been initiated). Vast areas of ground have been extracted historically in the South African gold fields. Most gold reserves are now in deeper ground (4000 m) and historic remnants (areas left before due to mining difficulties) as well as pillars (regional stability pillars). If we cannot find ways to extract these reserves at acceptable risk levels, the future of the South African gold mining industry is very short.

Apr 26, 2022

By Rene Padilla, Siyanda B. Mngadi, Gerrie van Aswegen, Peter Stonestreet

While many mine tunnels are developed through ground that must be riddled with the sources of small (and larger) mining induced seismic events, recorded by the mine seismic monitoring systems, we do not see planar discontinuities classified as seismic sources in the geotechnical databases. Here we list criteria that may be useful to identify discontinuities in drill core which are dynamic slip surfaces, parts of mining induced seismic sources. Such shear rupture surfaces in core would generally be powdery, cohesionless, and rough on cm scale. Finely broken rock and rock flour may be found in the core boxes at the discontinuities. Slickensides would be soft (easily destroyed) and kinematically consistent with the local stress field. In some cases, a cross fabric would be present, orthogonal to the slickensides, being the intersections of en-echelon extension fractures, within the dynamic shear zones, with the shear zone walls.

Apr 26, 2022

By David Beck

In Australia, Safe Work legislation requires mines to have a documented ‘Safety Case’ explaining how a mine will safely manage all major hazards. A similar requirement is legislated or inferred by regulation in all jurisdictions. For small scale, instabilities leading to day-to-day seismic hazards, a ‘Stability Safety Case’ built around observational methods and measurement triggered responses can be effective because adverse situations are easily identified and the costs of lower control measures are not onerous. Also, if the influence of a volume of yield on the mine load system is small, the response of the system will be more predictable. However, for episodes of large scale mine instability, the hazard derives from the widespread, multi component influence of the event on the mine load system. As the system response depends on interactions between many parts, the resolution of predictions will be lower and situations can arise without local precedent. Further, as episodes of large scale instability change the stiffness and nature of the connectedness between parts of the mine load system, the behavior of the system before the event will be a poor empirical basis for forecasts of event related hazards. Most importantly, Triggered Action Response Plans (TARPs) and ‘traffic light’ warning systems cannot make design choices or identify new hazard phenomena. They are ‘lower’ control measures targeting explicit human-made instability hypotheses. As such, the Safety Cases related to management of hazard from potential large scale seismic events and mine instability cannot rely solely on TARPs. Mines that successfully manage meaningful dynamic instability always acknowledge the ultimate reliance on expert human intuition, knowledge and imagination to appreciate the range of possible hazard scenarios, to make stability hypotheses and propose solutions. Complex analysis, TARPs and measurements are critical steps in the human decision cycle, but only support the making and testing of ‘Stability Hypotheses’ made by expert engineers. Relying on expert skill and judgement as essential components of a Safety Case, however essential, introduces human vulnerabilities. Another challenge is that the expert decision making process is hard to document. Beck et al 2019 first described an organizational and procedural framework for maintenance of an ongoing large-scale ‘Stability Safety Case' where a degree of expert judgement and imagination is needed to manage a seismically active mine. The structured data appreciation process outlined sufficient measurements, analysis and appreciation to confirm the stability state of the mine and was applicable to all underground mines. After several years of implementation in various forms in stoping, caving and room and pillar mines, this update addresses lessons learned and describes some considerations for numerical forecasting to establish a base case, and some challenges for empirical hazard identification.

Apr 26, 2022

By Stanisław Lasocki

We present an algorithm to integrate the uncertainties of mean activity rate and magnitude cumulative distribution function in the interval estimation of the primary seismic hazard parameters: the exceedance probability and the mean return period. The algorithm is applicable for both the parametric and nonparametric modeling of magnitude distribution. When the Gutenberg-Richter relation-based parametric model of magnitude distribution is used, the interval estimation of its parameters is based on the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimators. When the nonparametric kernel estimation of magnitude distribution is used, we apply the iterated bias-corrected and accelerated method for the interval estimation, based on the smoothed bootstrap and second-order bootstrap samples. Previous studies indicated that the uncertainty of mean activity rate significantly affects the interval estimates of hazard functions only when the activity rate is low and the inference period is not long (Orlecka-Sikora & Lasocki 2017). With increasing mean activity rate, the uncertainty of magnitude distribution dominates over the uncertainty of mean activity rate in the aggregated uncertainty of the hazard functions. The provided algorithm is generic and can be applied to capture the uncertainty of any multiparameter function from the uncertainties of its parameters. Here we present a further development of the algorithm developed by Orlecka-Sikora & Lasocki (2017) by presenting its implementation in the Traffic Light System approach. As an example of use, we present the confidence intervals estimation of hazard parameters for the datasets related to induced seismicity accompanying underground exploitation of copper ore in the Legnica-Głogów Copper District (LGCD) in Poland. The algorithm is under implementation to the EPISODES platform (https://tcs.ah-epos.eu/) - an IT platform that provides access to integrated research infrastructures of the Thematic Core Service of Anthropogenic Hazards (TCS AH) of EPOS (European Plate Observing System). The algorithm is also a component of the pilot developed within the EPOS SP project (No 871121), which aims to strengthen the interaction with the private sector and the added value for society. The pilot demonstrates the potential of the IS-EPOS platform software applications for the technology-related probabilistic assessment of time-dependent seismic hazard. The pilot supports a Traffic Light System approach. The current seismic hazard is compared to threshold values based on the exceedance probability for a given magnitude.

Apr 26, 2022

By Evan Dressel, Mark S. Diederichs, Kathy Kalenchuk

As hard rock mining develops deeper over time, there is an increasing need to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of adverse seismogenic rockmass reaction to mining. Real-time monitoring and feedback of mine data are used to tactically manage risk associated with induced-seismicity; however, strategic risk management requires reliable tools for forward predictions of seismic hazard. The forward prediction of seismic hazard is strengthened by understanding of potential seismic intensity, which often relies on well calibrated mine-wide numerical models. This paper uses a case study to explore how future seismogenic potential and the nature of future seismicity can be domained according to numerically predicted stress-strain paths at past seismic event locations. Delineation of high confinement seismogenic volumes vs. lower-confinement, high-strain seismogenic volumes at the mine-scale can be achieved, based on a loading and unloading stress path analogue, to refine understanding of seismic intensity. Practical qualitative and quantitative methods to achieve this delineation will be demonstrated. Once seismogenic mode (high-stress vs. high-strain) is identified, detailed analyses of seismic source parameters demonstrates change in seismic hazard between the domained volumes.

Apr 26, 2022

By Kazmierczak J. B., Klein E., Kinscher J., Lizeur A., De Santis F.

In this work, we propose to implement machine learning methods for the automatic classification of mining-related seismic data. The approach retained for the classification is based on a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) which has been tested and applied to two different mining datasets: the active ore mine of Garpenberg (Sweden), currently under exploitation, and the abandoned coal mine of Gardanne (France), where mining stopped in 2003. The first step of the approach consists in creating a well classified (manually) database of seismic signals separated in different classes as a function of the seismic sources. The selected database is then divided into two groups: train, containing the 70% of the signals, and test, which contains the remaining 30% of the signals within the selected database. The learning phase of the algorithm consists in creating a classification model based on the train group, which is further validated on the test group. The application of CNN for the automatic classification of Garpenberg and Gardanne seismic data shows, respectively, that about 88% and 98% of the seismic events of the two sites can be properly classified. These results demonstrate that machine learning could be a powerful tool for microseismic monitoring in mining and post-mining environments, which could be further extended to the whole automatic processing of seismic data, including signal’s classification as well as microseismic event’s localization.

Apr 26, 2022