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By Richard A. Thomas, Liming Yuan, Wei Tang, JOHN SOLES

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery applications are increasing for battery-powered vehicles because of their high energy density and expected long cycle life. With the development of battery-powered vehicles, fire and explosion hazards associated with lithium-ion batteries are a safety issue that needs to be addressed. Li-ion batteries can go through a thermal runaway under different abuse conditions, including thermal, mechanical and electrical abuse, leading to a fire or explosion. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) mining program is conducting research to prevent and respond to lithium-ion battery fires in battery-electric vehicles in the mining industry. In this study, experiments were conducted to investigate the effectiveness of different suppression systems including dry chemical, Class D extinguishing powder and water mist for lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery pack fires. The effects of activation time and release time of the water-mist system on the suppression of the LFP battery (a type of Li-ion battery) fires were studied. The results of this study may be helpful for developing strategic firefighting and response plans for battery-powered vehicles used in mining.

Aug 1, 2024

By Connor Meinke, Shaihroz Khan, Kevin Erwin, Rajiv Chandramohan, Muhammad Usman Siddiqui

A geometallurgy study aims to link metallurgy and geology to reduce technical risk and enhance the economic performance of a mineral-processing plant. It does so by accounting for variability in a deposit to develop cash-flow models with variable throughput rates. High-quality sample selection for metallurgical test work that is representative of the deposit is an essential component of a geometallurgy study, but the large multidimensional data set makes sample selection a daunting task, as classifying the data set while respecting its heterogeneity is difficult. This paper presents a streamlined approach for sample selection, using statistical analysis techniques in Python. It cuts down time to select samples from around 1,200 s per drillhole to about 60 s for data classification and from 12 h to 8 h for handpicking samples from the classified data set, translating to cost savings. The cumulative sum method and k-means clustering method are used in the methodology to elegantly classify the data and select representative samples. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by presenting data from a prefeasibility study of a copper-iron mine in which 40 samples were selected for flotation test work.

Dec 1, 2024

By M. A. Trevits, G. Frampton

"Mine safety training materials have long included pictures of mine conditions, equipment, hazards, etc. These images are invaluable to both the trainee and the trainer to convey many important concepts. The human eye takes in a tremendous amount of information, while the field-of-view from a consumer grade camera is, generally, 40 degrees to 90-degrees. This difference in field-of-view is a primary reason that pictures, especially of dark and dusty areas, don’t adequately describe the scene. For conveying information to a trainee, these images lack context. Today, 360-degree cameras are available with consumer-grade cameras costing a few hundred dollars. Also, the display technology is already owned by most trainees and trainers and is widely available. The resulting 360-degree videos and pictures can be readily viewed on smart phones and inserted into Microsoft PowerPoint slideshows. These images and videos can easily be included in existing training modules, disseminated using the internet, and used by trainees easily. We propose a methodology for utilization of 360-degree video and images with simple display technology for miner training. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND In mining, as in other production-related industries, the safety of workers is dependent upon many interrelated factors. One of the more important safety factors is a miner's ability to recognize hazards in their workplace. The ability to perceive and identify hazards is perhaps more difficult to master in underground mining than in general industry because the work environment is confined, noisy, dark, and inherently dangerous because of the hidden unknowns created by the geological setting and the conditions created by the mine opening. Further complicating the situation is a setting that is continuously changing as mining advances (Barrett 1995) [1]. Hours of excellent mine safety training have been developed and utilized over the years. Pictures of mines, activities, hazards, etc., are included in many of these training courses. These photographs, especially those taken underground, often lack context because of the limitations of the cameras and lenses. Notable research by the US Bureau of Mines and then later by NIOSH showed that the use of stereoscopic three-dimensional slides in training exercises was an effective aid for improving the ability of miners to recognize hazardous ground control conditions (Barrett 1988) [2]. An example of type of three-dimensional slides and slide viewer is shown in figure 1."

Jan 1, 2018

By T. Glenn Pobanz

For more than fifty years Walter Kidde & Company, Inc. has engaged in the development and manufacturing of both fire suppression and detection equipment. Our initial work for the mining industry centered around dry chemical extinguish-ing equipment for mine haulage cars. To fulfill this need, Kidde engineered and developed a manually activated dry chemical system to provide protection for the wheel wells, cable reels, and motor compartments on various pieces of underground mining equipment. The next phase of mining operation fire protection for Kidde was the area of detection and automatic fire suppression for conveyor belt heads. Early in 1970, a field evaluation program and belt head demonstration unit was taken to 10 areas throughout West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. This extensive field program was a joint effort with National Mine Service Company of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The objectives of this program were to study mine hazard problems and to determine further requirements of mine operators. The resulting belt head detection system centered around our Continuous Strip Thermistor Core heat detector in conjunction with a Kidde stored pressure dry chemical extinguishing system. Continuous Strip detection has been in use for a number of years in aerospace applications. It has proven flexible and reliable for the rapid detection of overheat conditions and fires in engines of over half the aircraft flying today. The use of Continuous Strip gave us flexibility to protect surface areas over and around the actual conveyor belt head equipment. The nature of Continuous Strip allows us to bend, wrap, and attach the 20 foot long thermistor element over the desired protected points of the belt head. An integral part of the conveyor belt head protection system is the control panel utilizing our comprehensive knowledge of fire alarm control logic. This panel contains supervision circuits which sound trouble signals upon detecting a break in the Continuous Strip; breaks in the wiring to the remote electrical extinguishing activators or to the alarm bell; or loss of primary power. A separate control module provides the adjustable alarm temperature setting of the

Jan 1, 1971

By Chee S. Theng

As the 2015 president of the Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration Inc., I am pleased to present the 2015 issue of the Transactions of the Society for Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration Inc., Vol. 338. A significant portion of the contribution that we make as a professional society is the publication of professional and technical papers that accelerate the advancement of scientific knowledge and enable the transfer of technology. Communication within the mining community is the key to a successful society. This technology exchange continues a tradition that dates back to the 1871 meeting of 22 mining engineers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, that resulted in the founding of AIME. Those individuals envisioned that these transaction volumes “would form a most valuable and greatly needed addition to our professional literature.” This volume fulfills that pledge. The 2015 Transactions contains some of the most interesting research and insights from the past year and features an international slate of authors spanning industry, academia and government. Papers include the latest findings from the U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) and special-focus articles on gold processing, iron ore processing and coal processing. The 2015 Transactions consists of a total of 67 technical papers, encompassing all 22 papers published in 2015 in the Technical Papers Section of Mining Engineering (Vol. 67) and all 29 papers published in 2015 in Minerals & Metallurgical Processing (Vol. 32). Additionally, this volume contains 15 papers and one discussion that are being published for the first time in this issue. The papers presented in this volume were written by some of the most distinguished professionals in the industry worldwide. All of the technical papers were peer-reviewed. The process of review and publication requires much hard work by authors, reviewers and our publications staff. As the 2015 president of SME and on behalf of all our members, I would like to extend our gratitude to all whose volunteer efforts contributed to the publication of this volume.

Jan 1, 2015

Due to the relatively remote location of the St. Anthony Mine, the high cost of transportation and milling, plus the low grade nature of the deposit, the United Nuclear Corporation began investigating methods of mechanical upgrading approximately eighteen moths ago. This investigation culminated in the installation of Model 17 and Model 18 ore sorting machines. The machines are marketed in the United States and Canada by Ore Sorters of Canada (Ltd.). The installation of this advanced technology will enable United Nuclear Corporation to fully realize the residual potential of St. Anthony.

Jan 1, 1979

"2016 marks an amazing accomplishment in the mining industry as Hecla Mining Company celebrates its 125th anniversary. Mining Engineering sat down with Hecla chief executive officer Phil Baker to gain insight on this tremendous longevity and to get his view on how the company demonstrated persistence, gained perspective and created position for its future.How did Hecla Mining Co. get its start?In 1891, a group of investors formed Hecla Mining Co. to acquire and trade mining claims. No one envisioned at the time that the Coeur d’Alene Mining District would become known as the “Silver Valley” and produce more than 37.2 kt (1.2 billion oz) of silver. Or that Hecla would become the United States’ largest primary silver producer and the last of the pioneer mining companies from this illustrious mining district.What is the origin of the name “Hecla?”That will forever be a bit of a mystery. Some say it was named for an Icelandic volcano. Or that it was the foresight of James Toner, who staked the original claim, that it would go so deep, fulfilling the medieval folklore definition of the word ‘Hekla’ which is the ‘Gateway to Hell.’ I kind of like that one as the Lucky Friday Mine is almost 3.2 km (2 miles) below the surface. It has operated for more than 70 years and has all the markings of being one of only a handful of mines that will exceed 100 years of operations.Is there a common theme, or thread throughout the 125 years?Yes, Hecla has always had a solid core of high-quality and long-lived assets, positioning the company to survive times of low prices and reap the rewards when cycles turn and higher prices are realized. But it is not just assets. Hecla has extraordinary expertise that gives us the perspective of how to acquire, explore, develop and operate mining assets, particularly underground. Hecla is one of the few companies to acquire assets in the last five to six years and we did not have to write down the value of them, which means we paid a fair price for the asset despite the metals price reductions that followed the purchase. And our culture has given us the persistence to develop mines and complete projects despite lower prices. For almost a decade we have been advancing the #4 Shaft project at the Lucky Friday. We will complete this project this year, positioning the mine to operate for decades. We have elected to spend capital on San Sebastian (Durango, Mexico) and Casa Berardi (La Sarre, Quebec, Canada) to start a new mine and increase production, respectively. And we are spending money on new techniques, new equipment and innovations to our operations. Our insistence is on developing for the future, and our persistence in doing so is in contrast to many companies that are reducing investment and shrinking production"

Jun 1, 2016

By K. W. Deter

The gold ores in the Jerritt Canyon district have been recognized as refractory since they were first encountered by FMC geologists in 1976. Upon obtaining managing rights as joint venture partner, Freeport McMoRan Inc. developed an operating plan featuring carbon-in-leach gold recovery techniques for the oxide portion of the ores and a patented sulphide oxidation step followed by chlorination for treating the organic carbon constituents of the refractory ores prior to CIL gold recovery. The plant was successfully started up in 1981 with the first gold poured on July 4, 1981. Initial plant throughput was designed to be 2495 MTPD (2750 STPD) total through the dual processing trains.

Jan 1, 1991

By Danny Chan, Shahram Tafazoli, Nicholas Himmelman, Edmond Chow

"While wearable technology has been garnering attention in the consumer market, enterprise and industry have just begun exploring its potential applications. Since February 2014, Motion Metrics International has been working in collaboration with Vandrico Solutions Inc. to apply wearable technology to improve productivity and safety in the mining industry.This article discusses the value proposition of using wearable technology to deliver critical notifications in mining. The advantages and disadvantages of various form factors are explored. The challenges, both specific to mining and in general to wearable technology, are defined. Finally, the concept of MetricsGear, the first wearable technology platform developed for mining by Motion Metrics International in collaboration with Vandrico Solutions Inc., is described. MetricsGear is designed to notify the user with minimal distraction to keep the user focused on his or her primary task and aware of mission-critical events. This focus and awareness allows the user to work more efficiently and safely. The mining process consists of a series of intricate stages, where certain events or conditions in one stage can have a huge impact on other stages. The notification of these critical events or conditions is vital for ensuring the overall efficiency of the mining process. Critical notifications can be classified as two types: timecritical events and contextual information. Time-critical events are situations where a timely response from a responder can have a significant impact on seizing an opportunity or mitigating cost. Some human-computer interaction (HCI) experts classify notification types based on the interruption, reaction and comprehension (IRC) framework. Time-critical events are classified to have high interruption, high reaction and low comprehension due to their urgency. The responder should have just enough information to identify the crisis and react as soon as possible (Chow, 2014). For example, when a tooth is lost during shovel operation, it is necessary to recover the missing tooth before it jams the primary crusher. The consequence of missing this critical time period is a jammed crusher that can cause the mine to be out of production until the jammed tooth is extracted (Baumann, 2013). In this case, the responder only needs to see an image to confirm if the tooth is missing and information to identify which equipment and when the tooth went missing (Fig. 1)."

Jan 1, 2014

By Gordon V. lewis

The Penjom gold mine treats highly preg-robbing carbonaceous ore by using relatively inexpensive gravity and hydrometallurgical methods. The mine is a joint venture between Avocet Gold Limited, a subsidiary of Avocet Mining PLC, a U.K listed mining company with interests in gold and tungsten, and the Pahang State Development Corporation (PKNP) who receive a 2% royalty. The operating team at Penjom embarked on a programme of innovation during 1998 following a realisation that almost all of the primary ore in the gold deposit was highly carbonaceous in nature. Earlier attempts at desliming and leaching the deslimed product through a normal CIL circuit had failed, and through shear necessity, the team turned to new technologies which were considered most suited to the ore characteristics indicated from pre­feasibility testwork. Between April and September, 1998, the mine introduced three key processes, which combined represent the elements of "The Penjom Process". The gravity circuit was boosted to maximise the capture of leachable sulphide and free gold from the relatively carbon free cyclone underflow stream, kerosene and diesel blanking was introduced to treat the cyclone overflow and RIL (resin-in­leach) technology utilised to replace the existing CIL (carbon-in-leach) circuit. Further experimentation with selective resin in partnership with Mintek of South Africa yielded a significant improvement to the process during 1999. Minix­Dowex resin was introduced mid year to replace a non-gold selective resin, which had been used in a flotation/batch leaching circuit for about nine months. Lower carbon levels in the feed at that stage led to the abandonment of flotation and the introduction of continuous RIL, which has been adopted as the major chemical process at the Penjom gold mine since September, 1999. Given the proven performance of the circuit to date, this process may be considered as a low cost option for the treatment of highly carbonaceous ores, particularly those which are not refractory and contain a reasonable percentage of free gold.

Jan 1, 2000

By J. S. Gardner, K. E. Houston, A. Campoli

INTRODUCTION Disposal of coal refuse is a costly and challenging problem facing the coal industry today. After the Martin County Coal Company slurry spill and the subsequent regulatory changes state and federal agencies are now beginning to require companies to justify new slurry impoundments. The authors have performed an analysis of different means of disposing of coal refuse for a major coal producing company located in the eastern Kentucky coalfields (the name of which will be withheld for the purpose of this paper). The company’s existing slurry impoundment is nearing its maximum permitted elevation and also an elevation where it may come in contact with abandoned underground workings. Due to the increased concern with underground mine works near slurry impoundments, additional consideration was given to raising the existing impoundment. Several other alternatives were evaluated, including but not limited to raising the existing impoundment, constructing a new slurry impoundment, constructing slurry cells, belt presses and others. This alternatives analysis was performed as part of a Section 404 permit for a valley fill and is currently being reviewed by the U. S. Army Corp of Engineers. All of the known possible alternatives were discussed in detail in the analysis. Due to the findings of the alternatives analysis, the company considers the engineered construction of the proposed impoundment to be the most favorable option of all the other alternatives evaluated, from both an economic and environmental standpoint. ALTERNATIVES EVALUATION FOR COALREFUSE/SLURRY DISPOSAL Background The company currently operates several deep mines and employ over 300 people and produces over 3.9 clean Mt/a (4 million stpy) of high quality, low sulfur coal. Currently, coarse refuse is belted to a valley fill, while, fine refuse is pumped to the existing impoundment. Coarse refuse is trucked to the existing impoundment as needed for construction purposes. The average recovery is approximately 50%; therefore, over 3.9 Mt/a (4 million stpy) of coal refuse must also be separated and placed.

Jan 1, 2003

By Robert S. Mayo

My subject today is "Drilling-and-Blasting of Small Rock Tunnels". I am sure that there will be some people, primarily college students but perhaps Consulting Engineers, who will say: "Drilling-and-Blasting? I thought that went out with the invention of the Tunnel Boring Machine". A few years ago I talked to Dick Robbins and he told me that they did not try to sell a "Robbin's Mole" unless the tunnel was two miles long. For easy calculations I use 10,000-ft. (3km) A Mole today costs about $2 million which works out to $200 per lineal foot. This is "front money". You cannot place the order unless you are the uncontested low-bidder and then you must wait at least six months for delivery. Of course you can use that time to square up your portals, ready to turn-the-eye, or maybe you have shafts to sink to reach the tunnel grade. But this is "dead-time" and it is a heck of a feeling to have a job and cannot get started on it until you get the Mole. I do not have the American figures on lengths of tunnels but there was an article a few years ago in a British magazine: NEW CIVIL ENGINEER, on this subject. This stated that 75% of the jobs in Britain which were bid were for small tunnels, 10-ft x 10-ft (3m x 3m) or smaller, and that they were less than 5,000-ft (1.5km) in length. This does not mean that 75% of the footage in Britain was less than 10-ft in diameter. It means that 75% of the jobs being bid were less than a mile in length. From my experience in the U.S. I believe that we have substantially the same ratio: so many of the jobs with which I was associated were short, 1,000-ft, 2,000-ft and sometimes 3,000-ft and the bores

Jan 1, 1981

By Joaquin Ruiz

Although Mexico is known for its important base-and precious-metal deposits, and lately oil, some industrial minerals play an important role in the Mexican economy. Sulfur, the most important industrial mineral produced, accounts for approximately 7.5 percent of the total value of mineral production. This commodity is followed by fluorspar, which accounts for 6.4 percent. Predominantly, the fluorspar deposits are very high grade (75 percent CaF) and are contained in lower Cretaceous limestone in the states of Coahuila and San Luis Potosi. Base-metal deposits in the area of Parral (notably San Francisco del Oro), however, have become important fluorite producers in their own right. (San Francisco del Oro has 12 percent fluorite gangue.) Salt from the Guerrero Negro solar-evaporation ponds in Baja California account for 6 percent of the total shares; phosphate from Baja California also accounts for 6 percent. Barite from man to deposits in Lower Cretaceous limestone in Coahuila and exhalative deposits in the Paleozoic section of Sonora account for 1.0 percent. In addition, Mexico is an important producer of gypsum, graphite, and celestite. Although graphite and celestite are not large-scale operations and thus do not contribute much to the Mexican economy, the Mexican graphite and celestite deposits are among the most important in the world; Mexico is one of the world's few sources of celestite. The celestite is in the form of large, high-grade mantos in Cretaceous limestones in northern Mexico.

Jan 1, 1987

By Kurt Wiener

A major process control system is in some ways like a complex organism. The extremities, (that is, field instruments) are exposed to many hazards and suffer malfunctions of relatively minor and repetitive nature. Here I equate a stuck valve or dead transmitter with a skin abrasion or cut. The maintenance and repair of the extremities can be done by technicians with basic but thorough knowledge of relatively few problems and their solutions. Here I equate with administering Band-Aids and aspirin. On the other extreme, when the master control device (such as a computer) fails, one does not attempt home remedies. A "brain" specialist is called in. It is, however, crucial that the patient be able to clearly describe his symptoms. Getting down to the case at hand, a complex system consisting of field instruments, instrument racks, interface equipment, and perhaps a computer, may require maintenance at all levels. At the field equipment end where physical damage, corrosive atmospheres, reconfiguration, and routine calibration checks are common, the customer has the opportunity to develop a competent staff of maintenance people. The relatively high maintenance activity assures competence through repetition.

Jan 1, 1980

Introduction The US mineral industry in 1983 participated in the recovery from the recent recession. Compared with 1982, the value of raw nonfuel mineral output rose 8% to $21.2 billion. The $218 billion worth of goods processed from this crude mineral output represented a 9% increase over 1982. Even in real terms, these figures reflect growth. Demand for nonfuel mineral materials, of course, depends on the overall state of the economy, which steadily improved each quarter in 1983. Of particular importance to the mineral industry were surges in key mineral-consuming sectors such as construction and automobile manufacturing. New housing starts rose one-third, to 1.7 million units, while automakers turned out about 35% more cars (6.8 million) and 25% more trucks (2.4 million) than in 1982. These are significant increases, even considering recent trends toward smaller, lighter vehicles, and multiple-unit housing. A comeback for the mineral industry, however, is bound to proceed unevenly, particularly at the beginning. Traditionally, the industry lags behind the rest of the economy during a recovery, and some mineral products respond to overall economic improvement more quickly than others. This pattern has been repeated many times and the industry is used to it. Mineral executives know it is best to be patient and cautious during the first stages of an economic upturn. Many experts say that it may take extraordinary toughness, patience, and caution this time around. Steel Improves Raw steel production - a major indicator of both material use and mineral production - rose 14% to 77 Mt (85 million st), stimulating a 7% rise in domestic iron ore production to 39 Mt (38 million It). Still, the iron ore industry operated at less than half capacity, with most major mines remaining closed for part of the year. Iron ore imports dropped 24% to 10 Mt (11 million st), so demand was partly met by withdrawals from stocks. Despite the increase in steel production for 1983, output remained far below levels of just a few years ago. For example, 1983 production was still 29% less than in 1981. Raw steelmaking capacity actually declined about 10% during the year to 122 Mt (135 million st). The industry continued to cite steel imports, especially those from developing nations, as a major cause of domestic capacity loss. As long as steel production remains weak, steelmaking metals suffer. Domestic producers of bulk ferroalloys of chromium, manganese, and silicon operated at about one-third capacity in 1983, with six of the 19 companies involved being closed all year. The US mined no manganese or chromium, and very little nickel, although the country's only nickel mine did resume production in November. Molybdenum production, at 13.6 t (15 st), was only about one-third as much as in 1982. The major molybdenum mines, Climax and Henderson in Colorado, remained closed all year. To meet demand, molybdenum stocks were halved to 19 t (21 st). Mine shipments of tungsten, another mineral tied to steel production, dropped 30% to 1.1 kt (1,200 st) of contained metal. One of the most positive responses to the general economic recovery came from the aluminum smelting industry. By the end of the year, it was operating at about 79% capacity, compared to 59% in January. Nevertheless, the 3.3 Mt (3.64 million st) of primary aluminum produced represented only a slight increase over 1982. Total bauxite imports were about 27% below 1982 levels. Production of magnesium metal rose 11% to 100 kt (110,000 st). But titanium was more typical of other

Jan 5, 1984

By J. W. Gunnett

Abstract. The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977 (PL-95-87), Section 522, establishes requirements for state regulatory authorities to designate lands unsuitable for all or certain types of surface coal mining. Any party having an interest in an area that may be affected can petition for it to be designated unsuitable for mining. Section 522 could present major obstacles to the mining industry by typing up an area in an endless round of petitions. The program under development for Kentucky is examined and analyzed as an example for determining the hidden impacts of Section 522.

Jan 1, 1980

By J. W. Currier

The compositions and natures of the materials charged to a blast furnace, as well as their respective distributions within the furnace, are known to int1uence furnace performance. However, fifteen years ago, there was little reason to believe that any significant variation of these parameters had been overlooked. Nor was there any particular reason to believe that olivine might be a particularly useful raw material for blast furnace applications.

Jan 1, 1989

By Xuebin Liu, Yi Shang, Can Zhou, Hongqiu Zhu, Junbo Du

In the neutral leaching process of zinc hydrometallurgy, the pH value directly affects the leaching rate of zinc calcine. However, due to the complex mechanism of the leaching process and frequent fluctuation of working conditions, it is difficult to control the pH value by manual control. Therefore, this study proposes a fuzzy control method based on rule extraction under multiple working conditions, and analyzes the pH control performance. Firstly, the different operating states are classified according to process mechanisms and the Pearson method. Secondly, under the framework of the active learning algorithm, the approximate linear dependence (ALD) method is introduced to iteratively select samples with rule information in the original sample set for manual annotation. Then, the support vector machine (SVM) method is used to extract fuzzy control rules in different working conditions. Finally, a fuzzy rule set is established according to the samples mapped by the support vector. The simulation results based on industrial data show that the proposed method has better control performance than conventional fuzzy control and proportional–integral–derivative (PID) control.

Apr 1, 2024

By Clement K. Chase, J. A. Eisele, Paul D. Chamberlain, Terry Laverty, Lee Rice, Larry Sevenker, Albert G. Law, Daryl Tweeton, John Peters

"Name your poison," wrote Forbes, Jan. 3, 1983, in an article describing the plight of much of the mineral industry as it entered the new year. "To ask which (mining) segment is better these days is almost like asking which of several stones would make a better life preserver." "The scene has seldom seemed darker or apparently less promising," said the Mining Journal in June 1982. And the Northern Miner described the year as the third in a "3-year drought which has completely dried up (company) coffers." Thus, 1982 became the worst year for much of the mining industry since the Great Depression. Low prices, commodity surpluses, output reductions, layoffs, temporary and permanent closures, and financial losses made headlines as the general recession continued to hurl blows at an industry facing strong foreign competition, increased government regulations, and plummeting market demand. At fault were tight US monetary policies and the resulting high interest rates that, while forcing inflation to slow, also threw the economic wheels of the country into reverse gear. Automobile production, housing starts, consumer durable sales, and capital spending all fell dramatically. US industrial production fell about 8.5% in 1982, with the GNP dropping by 1.7%. Production Value Not a single mineral escaped this recession. According to the US Bureau of Mines, US nonfuel production value dropped for all but four out of 21 metals and 14 out of 44 nonmetals. Production quantities increased for only gold, lead, and zirconium among metals and for only six nonmetals. Total nonfuel mineral production value dropped a whopping 21% from 1981 levels, the largest decline since 1938 and the first since 1971. Production value was estimated at $20 billion. Metal commodities showed heavier losses than nonmetals-37% vs. 12%-because of their link to depressed automobile and construction industries. Prices From peaks in early 1980, prices of precious and base metals, ferrous and nonferrous metals, and virtually every mineral dropped to 30-month lows in June 1982. Gold dropped to $9.64/g ($300/oz) compared to a high of $27/g ($850/ oz). Silver was quoted below 164/g ($5/oz) versus a $1.61/g ($50/oz) high. Copper was offered at a five-year low of $1.22/kg (55.5¢/lb) compared with a high of $3.30/kg ($1.50/lb). Lead went for 53¢/kg (24¢/lb) versus $1.21 (554). Nickel begged for buyers at $4.19/kg ($1.90/lb) compared to a high price of $7.72/kg ($3.50/lb). Molybdenum was available at or below $8.82/kg ($4/lb), down from a high of $44/kg ($20/lb). Cobalt went for $11/kg ($5/lb) versus $55/kg ($25/lb). Adjusted for inflation, increased currency costs, and currency devaluation, many of these prices are the lowest reached in decades. Financial Profits & Losses Low prices severely impacted companies' earnings, turning profits into sometimes disastrous or fatal losses. Robert Norton, director of the US Bureau of Mines, noting there has been a recession in the mineral industry for years, said, "Profit rates as related to invested capital have been considerably lower (for mining) than those of other industries. Mineral industry profits have been subject to greater cyclical swings and debt equity ratios have been significantly greater than

Jan 5, 1983

By John A. Cordes, Thomas F. Torries

INTRODUCTION Nonfuel mineral markets have always tended to be volatile due to the cyclical nature of demand and the difficulty of fine-tuning capacity and output levels. Experiences over the past two decades, however, have been especially perverse. This short volume attempts to provide insights into this era and some guidance for the future. The papers are linked together by their focus on issues of productive capacity. At the same time, they provide a useful description, explanation and evaluation of the industry's evolution and its implications for the near-term. The regnant pessimism of the 1980s was very much alive during the early months of 1987 when the theme of this symposium was formalized. Indices of real metal prices had only inched-up from all-time lows in 1986. The hemorrhage of corporate red-ink was still a powerful memory. Frustration with the apparent inability of closures and reduced capacity utilization to re-establish market balance was strong. To the more pessimistic, the industry appeared destined to a quarter century of persistent excess capacity and nonremunerative prices. The conditions to support this pessimism were readily apparent. Economic literature tells us that surplus capacity is a complex, usually unexpected and often long-lived phenomenon caused by the interaction of at least three factors. The first is a rising capital-intensity of production. The second is the presence of aggressive new entrants whose capacity additions are typically (1) trade- dedicated because local market absorption is low; (2) cost-competitive for natural or policy-support reasons; (3) heavily burdened by debt-repayment obligations; and (4) viewed as important sources of employment, regional development and foreign exchange. The third, and often decisive, factor is an unanticipated decline or stagnation in demand growth for the sector's output. The first two factors combine to increase competitive pressures and to raise the actual or perceived cost of idle capacity. Market rigidity reduces responsiveness to price signals and distorts the burden of adjustment. Demand atrophy exacerbates these pressures especially on unprotected producers in the higher quadrants of the global supply function. In the mid-1980s, evidence of the existence of all these factors were easy to cite. Culprits were often identified. Claims for protection, global sharing of adjustment burdens, and imposition of disincentives to new capacity regardless of inherent economic status were co-dominant themes with the buzz-words of "competitiveness" and "level playing fields." This, notwithstanding the suggestions of the same economic literature that excess capacity persists longest when interventionist remedies permit it to continue. Today, only eighteen months later, the mood is decidedly more buoyant and most analysts are cautiously optimistic about the next few years. Many informed analysts have concluded that the excess capacity of the recent past has disappeared. For the present, the marketplace seems to have restored a balance between supply and demand. That the adjustment took five or six years longer than anticipated attests to the dramatic structural changes which have characterized the industry. The implications of these changes for the future are unclear. Were the macroeconomic shocks, coupled with industry transitions, so extraordinary in magnitude and timing that experiences were unique? If so, the next years may hold more stable and cautious times for the industry. Alternatively, is the inherently volatile metals industry facing a future of cycles equally perverse in terms of amplitude and duration due to economic uncertainities and inflexible industry response capabilities?

Jan 1, 1989