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By D. Markwart, B. Volk

Anode effects are a phenomenon of the aluminium electrolysis process which produce potent greenhouse gases called PFCs (CF4, C2F6). With concerns surrounding global warming, and increasing regulation of GHG emissions, anode effects have become a significant sustainability issue for aluminium producers. In modem smelters, sophisticated computer control and automated alumina feeding systems allow for very tight control of the alumina concentration in the electrolyte and thus very low anode effect frequencies. Older smelters, however, do not have these systems and must either invest heavily to obtain them, or find other, innovative ways to reduce anode effect frequency. This paper will present the integrated approach to anode effect reduction used in the Vertical Stud Soderberg (VSS) potlines at Kitimat Works. Through an innovative combination of simplified signal analysis, modified alumina feed control logic, anode effect prediction, and anode effect prevention using a pager based communication system, Kitimat W arks has been able to make significant reductions to its anode effect frequency.

Jan 1, 2006

By Yong Kang, Bingyuan Yan, Dandan Zheng, Xiaochuan Wang, Dengfeng Su, Dongyang Li

"According to the characteristics of rock mass and the directional cutting technology of water jet, a new idea of light shock controlled blasting with water jet slotting was put forward. Based on the fracture mechanics theory and the stress wave theory, the mechanism of damping with water jet slotting was analyzed. On the basis of the above, the evolution law of the pressure wave and displacement field during the blasting were simulated by FEM software ANSYS/LS-DYNA. The result shows that: the oriented slot plays a good role in orientation during the blasting, and makes the energy generated by gas released by the explosives gather at the tip of the oriented slot, which makes it easier for the main crack to expand along the oriented slot and indirectly reduce the stress effect on the protected object. Meanwhile, the energy of the seismic wave is reduced while transmitting through damping slot. Finally, compared with the normal blasting with damping ditch, the maximum acceleration is reduced by 15.62%, the maximum velocity is reduced by 52.99%, and the maximum displacement is reduced by 68.32%. INTRODUCTIONIn recent years, with increasing demand for energy and space, an increasing number of underground projects have been under construction. Drilling-blasting method, as a traditional main method for rock excavation, is still an indispensable means in the engineering construction. As is known, blasting vibration will cause the deformation and unstable of the existing building structures, so how to reduce the influence on the existing building structures caused by the blasting vibration has become the focus. Traditional shock absorption measures mainly include three kinds: the first one is pre-splitting blasting, the second measure is to change the parameter of explosive filling, and the last one is to excavate damping ditch between the protected object and blastholes. However, engineering practices show that: the protected rock may be damaged in the process of pre-splitting crack construction by blasting, the second measure is difficult in operating, and the third measure is troubled by large work quantity (Song Guangming, 1999; Lou Jianwu, 2004; Lou Jianwu, 2005; Li Xibing et al., 2008)."

Jan 1, 2015

By Willie van Niekerk

As mining projects get larger and more complex there is a need to examine the use of project management techniques developed for large construction projects in order to ensure completion of the project on time and budget. In recent years the construction/civil industry has sought new methods to ensure that multimillion dollar projects involving multiple contractors, working in an increasingly legislated work environment, are delivered to the clients satisfaction. The paper describes these methods, which range from program management to systems and tools to gather all project information such as schedule and cost, and relates how these can be applied to large international mining projects. The paper also describes the benefits that an independent project manager can bring to a client or owner?s team by setting up the relevant organization and controls together with the appropriate contract and procurement strategy.

May 1, 2009

By M. Jackson, R. McDonald, T. Osken, D. Robinson

"The addition of sulphidic materials in the leaching of nickel laterites has several potential benefits that include improvements in the rheological behaviour of the blends, reductions in the sulphuric acid and steam requirements, sweetening of the nickel grade of the combined feed material, and the option of using a range of sulphidic materials. The current study examines the oxidative processing of 30% w/w blends of nickel concentrate and nickel laterite ore at 250oC. In particular, the viability of using low oxygen overpressures was examined for significant amounts of nickel flotation concentrate, up to 12% w/w. Further to this the impact of process water quality, in particular the presence of chloride, upon the kinetics of extraction and the mineralogy of the residue were also investigated. This paper will present the results of preliminary work in this area.INTRODUCTIONThe use of sulphidic ore as a source of sulphuric acid during oxidative hydrometallurgical processing is not a novel idea and can be traced back over forty years (Seidel & Fitzhugh, 1968). A series of patents pertaining to application of this approach for laterite ores can be subsequently found (O’Neill, 1973; Opratko et al., 1974; Rodriguez, 2008a, 2008b; O’Callaghan, 2010; Liu et al., 2011) and a few of articles containing published data (Ferron & Fleming, 2004; Quinn et al., 2009). The use of pyrrhotite tailings as a source of sulphuric acid has also been employed for the leaching of converter slags (Perederiy et al., 2011).It is known that hydrometallurgical operations such as the HPAL plant at Murrin Murrin have added small amounts of sulphides as either transitional (mixed sulphide/oxide) ore or non-smeltable concentrate. This can improve the rheology (Rodriguez, 2009) and provide heat credits. However these plants are generally limited in their ability to add such materials due to their reducing nature and given under highly acidic conditions that the breakdown potential of the titanium used for the autoclave lining is significantly reduced. A suitable oxidant must therefore be present to ensure the potential remains sufficiently high."

Jan 1, 2012

By Michael Loken, April Montera

"The process of blending consistent and predictable feed for the roasters is critical to optimizing product quality and controlling production costs. To assist in this process, Online PGNAA Slurry Analyzers have been installed and evaluated at a Sudbury Ontario smelter. They are used to measure 100% of the full process stream to obtain elemental composition data in real time. This paper explains the application details at Sudbury and the benefits achieved from their Full Stream, Elemental Slurry Analyzers.INTRODUCTIONSudbury Integrated Nickel Operations (Sudbury INO), a Glencore Company consists of two underground nickel/copper mines in Sudbury, Nickel Rim South and, Fraser, along with the Strathcona mill and the Sudbury smelter. The facilities are spread throughout the 60 kilometer-long, oval-shaped geological formation known as the Sudbury Basin (Figure 1). The company has been mining nickel-copper ores in the Sudbury area since 1929. Nickel and copper are the primary focus of operations at Nickel Rim South and Fraser. Other base metals such as cobalt and precious metals are also produced."

Jan 1, 2016

By Jan Butra

Longstanding mining of copper deposits in the Legnica-Glogow Mining Basin, Poland has accumulated broad experience concerning the impact of geological and mining conditions on seismic and rockburst hazard. Methods of rockburst prevention for deep copper mines have been developed based on gathered data. Methods of rockburst hazard evaluation and rockburst control constitute a set of rockburst prevention measures. Due to their nature and location within the production process, prevention methods can be passive or active. Active methods of rockburst prevention consist of the liquidation of stresses in the areas where they are concentrated through controlled generation of rock-mass tremors and rockburst by blasting works (group extraction blasting, release blasting in the rock mass and pillars able to accumulate the stress, as well as in the roof and floor). Group blasting works as a basic method are very effective in copper mine conditions. Provocation of dynamic events makes it possible to control the timing of their occurrence. In Polish copper mines, all blasting works are made during the absence of miners in the mining fields. Daily distribution of both the number of recorded strong seismic events and volume of energy released, confirm the advisability of using this kind of rockburst hazard prevention. The rockburst hazard prevention methods developed over 40 years of copper deposit extraction are economically reasonable and offer sufficient effectiveness under high rockburst hazard conditions.

Aug 1, 2013

By P. M. Huck, R. John

"The National Uranium Tailings Program was established in 1982 to develop, in part, a mathematical predictive model which would allow the assessment of the impact of uranium mill tailings on the environment and particularly on humans. . To achieve this , various studies were undertaken to establish the role played by key constituents of the tailings. This paper summarizes the findings of a study carried out under that program, to examine the leachability of barium-radium sulphate sludges produced in the treatment of uranium mill tailings decants. The investigators performed detailed chemical an alysis of the sludge, applied geochemical computer models to investigate sludge leaching behaviour, and conducted experiments to assess the impact of bacteria on leaching. The modelling showed that the redox state o f the sludge-leachant system was the most important factor. Substantial bacterially-mediated dissolutio n of the sludge and release of radium was demonstrated experimentally under suitable reducing conditions . INTRODUCTIONIn September 1981, Phillip A. Lapp presented the final report of the National Technical Planning Group on uranium tailings research to the federal government (Lapp, 1981). Lapp' s group had performed an in-depth survey of the status of uranium tailings research in Canada and, as a result, recommended that a national program be funded in the amount of $18 .6 million. Half of this fund ing was to come from the federal government, with the two producing provinces , Ontario and Saskatchewan, providing the balance. However , the provinces declined to support the program and the federal government decided to inaugurate a reduced program with $8.5 million o f funds .In late 1982, the formation of the National Uranium Tailings Program (NUTP) was announced by the minister of state for mines. A primary objective of this program was to develop a mathematical predictive model that would permit the assessment of the impact of uranium mill tailings on the environment, a nd particularly on humans. The program was to use existing information to the greatest possible extent, and then fund research to fill in gaps or substantiate data where necessary .The NUTP was established to administer this program of contract research over a five-year sunset life. By the end of the 1986-87 fiscal year the NUTP had completed about 100 contracts. One of those projects was to study the effect of placing barium-radium sludge ba ck within the tailings matrix. Th is paper gives the results of that study."

Jan 1, 1989

By Ki-Bok Min, Seokwon Jeon, Seung-Beum Choi, Taehyun Kim

"In order to investigate anisotropic characteristics of Boryeong shale in Korea, which clearly shows transverse isotropy, a series of experimental tests were carried out. Using Brazilian test, five elastic constants and tensile strength of the shale were evaluated. Elastic constants were determined by iterative procedure and in order to perform this procedure, constitutive model was modified to fit the experimental condition. The anisotropic ratios of elastic constants were evaluated and the applicability of the methodology was assessed. Apparent Brazilian tensile strength profile was investigated and the ratio of the maximum to minimum tensile strength was estimated. Results showed that the tested rock type had low to moderate anisotropic characteristics.INTRODUCTIONMechanical, thermal and hydraulic characteristics of many rocks vary according to direction, which is known as inherent anisotropy, and it is originated from stratified and/or foliated structure of intact rock and discontinuity of rock mass. Anisotropy is one of the long standing issues of rock mechanics field and it has to be taken into account in several engineering fields such as civil, mining and petroleum engineering. An anisotropic medium has 21 independent elastic constants without any assumption of symmetry. If a material has any symmetry, the number of elastic constants required to define its behavior reduces and eventually two constants are necessary if it has complete symmetry, which is known as isotropy. An anisotropic medium that has remarkable planar structure due to its stratification and foliation such as bedding is often called as a transversely isotropic medium. Transversely isotropic model is frequently adopted in many applications especially for sedimentary rock formation and five elastic constants are required to establish the constitutive model."

Jan 1, 2015

By J. Zou

Open-cut method is most widely used for shallow utility lines installation. In urban areas, unexpected utility lines buried underground potentially turn open-cut construction into a highly risky operation, increasing the construction cost while presenting additional safety hazards. Examples include: breaking existing water main leads to flooding the downtown area; hitting an unexpected gas line causes an explosion. To prevent those accidents, the current practice is to stake out the underground utility lines before the open-cut construction based on the as-built information collected from various utility companies and government agencies. However, the as-built information is not always complete and accurate. To verify the locations of some important utility lines and protect them against damages caused by open-cut construction, new techniques and technologies are used but have their limitations in revealing underground utility lines, such as hydro vacuum method and ground penetration radars (GPR). The emerging technology of ultra-wide band (UWB) radar holds the potential to provide a cost-effective, non-destructive detection method. In this paper, a critical review of current practices and established methodologies is given. The functionality and working mechanism of UWB radar technologies are described. Application potential in open-cut construction is demonstrated by conducting lab experiments. Testing set-ups for detecting unexpected utility lines in soil along with preliminary results are presented. The effects of soil moisture content on the detection range are discussed. Research findings are summarized and constraints are discussed in conclusions.

Aug 1, 2013

By G. J. Reid, D. H. Stewart

"A diversity of structures and rock types in the Aft on pit has resulted in the occurrence of several different types of wall failure. Delivery of ore to the mill has not been affected and safety has not been compromised thanks to effective remedial 1V0rk and to a system of structural mapping, back analyses of failures, groundwater monitoring, and simple movement monitoring. Remedial measures have included artificial support, dewatering (including vacuum-assisted drainage), flattening of slopes and temporary buttressing. This paper describes six different wall failures at Afton and highlights the features of each. Examples given include rates of movement, extent and direction of movement, and piezometric responses. The practical, low-cost monitoring system was sufficient in one case to allow the prediction of date of failure. IntroductionThe Afton copper deposit is located 13 km west of Karnloops, British Columbia and has been mined for nine years out o f an expected eleven-year life. Open pit mining has reached 700 feet below sur face and is designed to proceed to 970 feet below surface by the time the pit is completed. The excavation is in a structurally and lithologically complex environment. Inevitably, some wall failures have occurred but these have been limited to small, manageable failures which have not compromised production or safety. To handle the failures it has been necessary to understand their nature. Of prim e concern has been the rate s of movement, but displacement vectors and hydrology have been monitored as well. The monitoring system is based on EDM surveys and on wire extensometers and plates set across cracks. Water levels have been read in standpipe piezometers. At Afton the emphasis has been on simple, practical, and inexpensive monitoring and because rock type s and structures play such a major role in any failure, detailed geologic al mapping is carried out."

Jan 1, 1988

By P. W. Percival, J. J. Janssens

"Whitehorse Copper is a 2600-ton-per-day underground copper mine located within the city limits of Whitehorse, Yukon . In early 1978, due to increasingly difficult ground conditions. it was decided to investigate the conversion from longhole open stoping to vertical crater retreat mining. On-site crater testing by C-I-L demonstrated the feasibility of V.C.R. mining at Whitehorse Copper.After some investigation. a down-the-hole drilling rig was chosen and drilling began in November /978. Blasting began in June /979. and to September 1980 approximately one million tons of ore had been blasted. In-field changes to both drilling and blasting techniques have been implemented. Some of these changes were dictated by problems encountered; others were made to improve efficiencies.To date. V.C.R. mining has proven successful from a drilling and blasting aspect.IntroductionWhitehorse Copper Mines Ltd ., a division of Hudson Bay Mining and Smelting Co., Limited , is a 2600-Lp.d. underground copper mine. The plant site is located I mile west of the Alaska Highway, and approximately 7 miles south of Whitehorse city center. Production is from the Little Chief orebody, and total output is from vertical crater retreat stopes.The Little Chief and Middle Chief orebodies at Whitehorse Copper had original reserves in excess of 6 million tons, most of which graded 2.00/0 copper or higher . The orebodies are typical skarn deposits that have developed along the contact between an intrusive diorite and a limestone-quartzite flank pendant. The limestone has been metasomatized to form a calcium-magnesium skarn which, along the limestone / quartzite contact, has locally further developed into a mineralized magnetite-serpentine skarn. The principal copper minerals are bornite and chalcopyrite, with minor chalcocite and valleriite. Skarn gangue minerals are serpentine, diopside, garnet, epidote, calcite and wollastonite. Appreciable values in gold with some silver are present and recovered as well."

Jan 1, 1981

By D. Madsen, B. Salamondra, A. Moss, D. Etienne

"Raise mining at the Namew Lake Nickel Mine in Manitoba uses 3 m diameter bored raises driven at 45 to 50 degrees dip for stope access and drilling. These raises are developed within the orebody on 20 m centres to accommodate electric-hydraulic longhole jumbos and charging wagons. Critical elements of stope development include delineation of are contacts, control of deviation during raise development, optimal stope sequencing to permit a high extraction rate, drill anchorage installation, production drilling and blasting, and ground control. Procedures to deal with these elements are described, with emphasis on the geotechnical investigation for design of open stopes and pillars.Although mining with drilled raises does not have the flexibility to follow large variations in orebody dip, results to date indicate that it can be used successfully in the thicker ore zones. Thinner zones are currently mined using a modified Avoca method. Some flexibility to accommodate variations in orebody dip in thin are zones may be obtained by using alimack raise climbers to drive access raises, and carry longhole drills and charging equipment. Rock quality has been sufficiently good to maintain stable stope walls for full-height mining of primary stapes at 20 m strike length.IntroductionThe Namew nickel deposit is located 60 km south of Flin Flon, Manitoba. It is a moderately dipping (45 to 50 degrees) pipe-like ultramafic intrusion with a sulphide halo enrichment. The diluted recoverable ore reserves at January I, 1990 are 2.2 million tonnes grading 2.05% Ni and 0.7% Cu. The operation is a joint venture between Hudson Bay Mining and Smelting (60%) and Outokornpu Mines Ltd. of Toronto (40%). The mine is budgeted to produce 530 000 tonnes in 1990. The deposit was discovered in 1984 and mine development commenced in 1987.In the raise mining area, primary stopes will be filled with a high quality backfill consisting of cement and quarried limestone. Secondary stopes will be mined out between the primaries in the second pass of mining. The design extraction rate is 94% over all.The orebody above 120 level has an average mining width of 2.4 m, so is too narrow for raise mining. A modified form of Avoca stoping is used."

Jan 1, 1991

By L. M. Ame, W. D. Harwood

"This paper outlines a management philosophy aimed at promoting employee involvement, quality and process improvement at Inco 's Thompson operations. It describes the use of statistical process control techniques, lessons learned and examples of progress.IntroductionThis paper provides an overview of the Manitoba Division's performance through the promotion of greater employee involvement, quality and process improvement. Having learned from other practitioners o f quality management, the Manitoba Division believes its experiences are applicable to all mining and other businesses.The Thompson operation consists of two underground mines, an open pit, a mill, a smelter and an electrolytic refinery. The workforce consists of 2000 members. The main products are electrolytic nickel slab and proprietary nickel rounds. Production levels are currently at capacity in response to heavy market demand.Paralleling much of the mining industry the corporation was faced with six years of decreasing nickel prices (Fig. I). Inco Limited survived by focusing on productivity and cost improvement. Manitoba Division productivity improved 32070 over three years beginning in 1982-the worst financial year in the company's history (Fig. 2). A real unit cost reduction of 20%, net of inflation, was also achieved (Fig . 3)."

Jan 1, 1990

By w. w. Milde

"Since its startup in 1975, the Rabbit Lake mill has been modified (0 process both increased tonnage and higher grade ore. Ore initially came from the Rabbit Lake pit . In 1985, a major mill expansion was commissioned to allow treatment of B-zone pit ore, which is mineralogically and metallurgically different fromRabbit Lake pit ore.Mill modifications, and the changing ore characteristics and processing targets which made them necessary, are described. Mill LocationThe mill complex, shown in Figure I, comprised of milling facilities, acid plant, power generation , warehouse and administration offices, is located approximately 1.5 Ian south of the Rabbit Lake pit, and about 8 Ian southwest of the B-zone open pit mine.Original Milling CircuitOre feed to the mill commenced June 10, 1975. The mill was designed to process 1500 tonnes per day , 483 000 tonnes per year with an average grade of O.44OJo Ups and an annual production of 2000 tonnes UPs' Run-of-mine ore was dumped directly onto a 60 em square opening grizzly. Oversize was broken with an Ingersoll-Rand hydrauli c rock breaker. Minus 60 cm ore was fed to a 6 m diameter by 1.8 m long Hardinge semi-autogenous (SAG) grate discharge mill. Mill discharge was screened over a Tyler double-deck vibrating screen, with screen oversize returned to the SAG mill feed chute via conveyor belt. Screen undersize (minus 2.4 mm) was pumped to 51 cm diameter Krebs cyclones in closed circuit with the SAG mill. Cyclone overflow (about 50% minus 74 micron) was thickened to 55% solids in a 30 m diameter neutral thickener .Thickened pulp was stored in two mechanically-agitated wood stave tanks (5.5 m diameter by 6 m high), to which sulphuric acid was added to obtain a pH range of 1.5 to 2.0. The fmalleaching was carried out in five more identical tanks. Sulphuric acid and sodium chlorate were used to maintain a pH of 1.5 and a terminal emf of -450 to -500 mV. Steam sparge was utilized to obtain a temperature of 45°C."

Jan 1, 1989

By Emmanuel Henry

Hanging wall deformation monitoring at the Kiruna Mine is a major concern for Luossavaara- Kiirunavaara AB (LKAB) since underground production is deepening towards the Kiruna Town. In the quest for more effective monitoring techniques, LKAB decided to evaluate satellite-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry?s ability to monitor ground subsidence by generating continuous deformation maps from satellite radar images. While adopted by other geoscience-related industries, SAR interferometry is still relatively untested in the Mining industry. This paper describes how subsidence is actually monitored on the Kiruna Mine?s hanging wall and gives an insight on SAR interferometry?s principle. The encouraging results are discussed as well as the technique?s benefits (continuous deformation mapping, low cost, fast, etc) and limitations (sensitivity to snow and vegetation cover).

May 1, 2003

By G. Anger, J. Enser, H. Antrekowitsch, S. Koch

Homogeneous chemical composition and microstructure are always necessary, but not always attained in practice. As-cast aluminium alloys tend to have a segregation microstructure. Features of the cast structure, which affect subsequent processing or properties, can be altered by the homogenization. The main task of the Department of Nonferrous Metallurgy was to investigate the effect of homogenization treatment on precipitation hardening of aluminium alloys 6061 and 6082. The effect of the solution heat treatment (SHT) temperature on the mechanical properties was also analyzed. The homogenized and non-homogenized rolling slabs were produced according to the usual conditions and methods. The metallographic investigations were carried out on the as-cast samples, after homogenization, after the hot and the cold rolling mill, and after natural and artificial ageing. Then, Brinell hardness measurements and tensile tests were conducted on both alloys in order to examine the influence of the homogenization.

Jan 1, 2006

By R. P. Townsend

It is a widely accepted "fact" that a Koepe friction hoist is generally the best solution for production hoisting when compared to a double drum hoists. This would appear to be true if one looks at the initial capital cost of just the hoist, and also if one compares the size of the motors selected for the duty. But is this the whole story? What are the longer term costs involved in the hoist's operation, and what are the relative efficiency's of the two designs? Perhaps the Koepe hoist design enjoys a better reputation than it deserves.

Jan 1, 2011

By Franco Chiesa, David Levasseur, Bernard Duchesne

A 500kg aluminium AlSi7Mg03 casting has been poured and the metallurgical quality at different locations inside the casting has been thoroughly investigated. It included measuring the local tensile properties (YS, UTS, El) in the T6 condition, the dendrite fineness (DAS) and the level of microporosity. A correlation was found between the microporosity level, the local solidification time and solidus front velocity; this correlation allows to predict the porosity level in large aluminium castings (solidification times between 20 and 200 minutes). Quite expectedly, properties varied widely within the casting and the actual mechanical properties were much less than the "textbook values" based on measurements carried out on separately cast standard specimens. A correlation between the secondary dendrite arm spacing (DAS) and the local solidification time was in keeping with previously published data. Finally the conditions to obtain an acceptable finish on machined surface were determined.

Jan 1, 2014

By Ludwig Strah

"The paper outlines the history of rubber mill liners beginning with the awarding of the first North American patent rights in 1923. It includes the early-day applications and installations of the 1920s and 1930s through to their present-day application. Over-all rubber mill liner design is discussed in relation to present day installations employing rubber mill liners in various grinding applications. A brief overview is given of a manufacturer's procedures to produce rubber mill liners.IntroductionIn early 1910, it became apparent that the productive life of the silver mines in Cobalt, Ontario, could be substantially prolonged by mining lower-grade ores.The mining of lower-grade ores required the establishment of treatment facilities which initially employed jaw crushers, stamp mills, jigs and concentrating tables. The recovery of silver in other than a coarse metallic form required the additional step which was introduced at that time: the cyanidation of silver concentrates from the tables. The resultant requirement for increased and improved recovery led to the introduction of grinding mills, i.e. tube mills.Shortly after the introduction of the tube mills to the Nipissing Mine's mill in 1914, the idea of using rubber as a mill liner material was spawned. However, no action was taken due to the advent of World War I. It is interesting to note that the idea of rubber mill liners emanated from having used pieces of solid rubber tire as an emergency repair on a set of liners when a liner had broken and no immediately available spare was on site.The credit for this ingenuity and subsequent application for a patent on rubber mill liners falls to James John Denny, the mill superintendent, and Rolla Barnum Watson, the general manager of Coniagas Mines Limited. The patent application was formally made on December 3, 1921. The U.S. Patent Office issued Patent No. 1,470,597 on October 16, 1923."

Jan 1, 1982

By Roger J. Goodman

"Major industrial restructuring, which started to manifest itself in the mature economies of the Western World and Japan in the 1970s, will accelerate in the 1980s and 1990s. Conventional heavy manufacturing industries will continue to lose ground to lighter processing/assembly operations and the new wave of high technology, information and service sectors. The decline in heavy manufacturing has severely impacted on the steel industries of Western Europe, the U.S.A . and Japan.World trade in metallurgical coal has shifted correspondingly, with declining demand in the mature developed countries being only partially offset by large increases in the steel intensity of the newly-industrialized countries (NICs) of the Far East, Latin America and, to a more limited extent, the Middle East and Africa. These trends will be accentuated in future years with direct implications for the distribution of metallurgical coal trade. This paper discusses, in quantitative terms, such changes in the 1980s and 1990s, and examines the implications for, and impacts on, Canadian metallurgical coal exporters.IntroductionThe twenty-year period from the early 1950 s to the early 1970s was characterized by inexorable growth in consumer demand and industrial expansion in most of the advanced countries of the western world. Long- term forecasting during this period typically used linear extrapolation techniques which , despite their simplicity, invariably ended up predicting future demand and production level s with uncanny accuracy. Times have changed!The last decade has been characterized by a n abysmal failure of our economies to respond to simple long-term, linear growth patterns. We appear to have entered a new world in transition, where we can observe a wave of dying or sunset industries reluctantly being submerged by a wave of emerging or sunrise industries.This paper is aimed a t examining the evidence for long-term industrial restructuring trend s. For want of a better word, these so -called, megatrends are then used to predict future demand level s and spatial distribution of steel development and , hence, metallurgical coal trade. It is tempting to correlate the decline in economic activity in the western world with the first Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) crisis of 1973. This crisis was probably no more than the straw that broke the camel's back, as the megatrends and embryo s of major industrial restructuring were already evident. Today these megatrends are merely more apparent and transparent than they were ten years ago.While the concept of industrial restructuring is the new economic buzz word, the process was at work, to a lesser degree even throughout the period of strong economic growth of the post-Second World War boom. Many people still remain convinced that our present-day sluggish economy is just part o f the typical , though rather more prolonged, recessionary cycle. Yet, we have always been part of a dynamic economic system and industry throughout history has been the subject of a continuous process of evolution, restructuring and reconstitution . Now the time is ripe to examine the evidence for such restructuring in order to develop coherent policies of adjustment in this transition from one industrial regime to another."

Jan 1, 1985