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By John C. Robison

INTRODUCTION Sensitivity analysis is a means of gauging the impact of individual risks on a financing. Key risks can occur in three time periods: - Feasibility, engineering and construction phase; - Start up phase (usually through completion); - Operating phase (post completion). If a company has agreed to cover these risks prior to completion, then less attention will be paid to the sensitivity of the project in the first two time periods. Since the operating phase of the project generates cash for both operations and debt service and generally does not begin until two to six years after the loan is signed, it is wise to look at scenarios other than the projected "base-case" scenario in order to determine the project's capability to operate successfully under a broad range of probable future events. Lenders are compensated at a fixed spread over their borrowing base and generally are not compensated if the project is successful beyond expectation. They are also subject to the loss of principal plus funding costs if the project performs below expectation. Because of this, lenders establish sensitivities around the parameters of conservative projections developed in the project feasibility studies and the cash flows resulting from these projections. The initial cash flow projections should demonstrate the project's ability to meet cash costs, debt service requirements (principal and interest), and still have sufficient cushion to cover contingencies such as strikes, price fluctuations, force majeur situations, etc. (See Schreiber, Chapter 10). The selection of the level of sensitivity analysis to be performed is the result of both objective criteria, including probabilistic analysis applied to the technical parameters, and, of equal importance, subjective criteria applied by the analysts, especially with regard to the economic and financial parameters impacting the project cash flows. RISK SENSITIVITY Assumptions used in the cash flow projections should be realistic. Risks identified by the lenders should be identified and cash flows prepared to assess whether these project risks are acceptable. Typical project risks include the following (see also Chapter 9): - Sufficient reserves - quantity and quality - Product price - Production level - Operating costs - Availability of energy and supplies - Transportation and infrastructure requirements and costs - Interest rate - Completion risks - Tax level - Political risks - Cost over-run risks - Operator experience - Management - Technological risks - Environmental permits and risks - Foreign exchange risks - Insurance coverage - Equity of sponsors - Inflation rate - Capital expenditure during project life In order to see the effect on the cash flow projections, each risk should be analyzed for its impact on the cash flow generating capacity of the project. Sensitivities can be examined to see if the resultant cash flow projection will meet the lenders minimum credit standards. 1.Reserve Sensitivity In general, lenders will not assume the reserve risk. However, it should also be noted that lenders receive loan proposals in which reserves range anywhere from proven to possible. Sensitivities are not generally run for various reserve levels and reserve estimates are either considered acceptable or not acceptable by the lenders.

Jan 1, 1985

By Fred A. Anderson, George B. Wallace, Edward J. Slebir

Auburn Dam will be a thin, double-curvature concrete arch dam about 685 ft high. With a crest length of about 4000 ft, it will be the world's longest single-arch dam. The site is located on the North Fork of the American River about 40 miles northeast of Sacramento, Calif. Construction is scheduled to get under way in 1970. In planning for the design and construction of Auburn Dam (see artist's conception), the foundation material, with its various discontinuities, is being investigated and the structural characteristics of the rock mass evaluated. The investigation and testing programs will aid in defining the pertinent geologic features and their individual and cumulative influence on the foundation. The work includes geologic surface mapping, surface trenching, core drilling, geophysics, tunneling, excavating shafts and raises, performing in-situ tests, and conducting laboratory tests on core and block samples. Competent amphibolite is the predominant material in the foundation, but significant bodies of chloritic, talcose, and metasedimentary rocks, a strongly developed jointing pattern, faults, and shear zones also affect the deformability of the rock mass. A comprehensive rock mechanics program, closely coordinated with geologic investigations as well as the engineering studies, therefore is required The rock mechanics work is a combination of many analytical studies and experimental investigations. The experimental work includes laboratory tests on core samples from holes drilled for geological studies of the entire foundation and in-situ tests performed in selected areas. The laboratory testing program evaluates the general properties of all important rock types and aids in correlating many of the key structural features encountered within the foundation. To derive maximum benefit from the field tests, they are conducted in materials which represent a

Jan 1, 1970

By G. J. Cardwell

The rock and mineral analyst will be called upon to determine both the major and minor constituents in materials as varied as rocks, soil, sediments, concentrates and various liquids. These analyses will have interactions requiring extraction, matrix modification, and background correction. Analytical methodologies include classical gravimetric methods, such as fire assay, emission spectroscopy, X-ray fluorescence, atomic absorption, inductively coupled plasma, and neutron activation. With these capabilities the analyst can be called on to determine three-fourths of the elements in the periodic table. How can the earth scientist pick the method best suited for his particular sample?

Jan 1, 1984

By Roswell Johnson

THE prevailing system of wells on a rectangular basis, as shown in Fig. 1-A, has developed because of the exigencies of offsetting at boundary lines. When, however, a very large tract is, being drilled, it is often possible to abandon this inferior method for the superior arrangement C- PROPER STAGGERING FIG. 1.-THREE SYSTEMS OF SPACING WELLS. known as "staggering," which is illustrated in Fig. 1, B and C. The advantages of the triangular over the rectangular method are evident from Fig. 2, computed on the basis of one well to 10 acres (4 ha.). With the triangular system, no land is more than 409.4 ft. (124.8 m.) from a

Jan 8, 1918

By T. Cantwell, N. C. Rasmussen, H. E. Hawkes

Beryl is a mineral that may be difficult to distinguish from quartz by casual field inspection. The easily recognized green color and hexagonal crystal form of coarse-grained beryl are by no means universal, even in beryl from pegmatitic deposits. If it occurred as a fine-grained accessory mineral in an igneous rock, it would almost certainly escape detection unless samples were submitted for petrographic or chemical analysis. There may be substantial deposits of some beryllium mineral, other than beryl, that has been overlooked because that mineral also closely resembles the common rock-forming minerals. A reliable and simple method of identifying beryllium minerals and determining the beryllium content of a rock would be helpful in exploration. This article describes preliminary experiments in applying nuclear reaction to the qualitative identification of beryl and to the semiquantitative determination of the beryllium content of rock samples.

Jan 9, 1959

By George Otis Smith

The Secretary of the Interior in his recent report to the President has defined the new public-land policy, which is in fact "but a new application of an old policy." His words may be more acceptable on this subject of land classification than the repetition of phrases which have served some of us for several years. Secretary Lane says of the past: 1'Congress has always been most generous as to the disposition of the national lands.... There was land for all, and it was the government's glad function to distribute it and let those profit who could.... And this generous donor was not so petty as to discriminate between kinds of lands, the uses to which they could be put, or the purposes which those might have who got them. Land is land, save when it contains minerals; this was roughly the broad principle adopted. To classify was a task too difficult or not worth while. The lands would classify themselves when they arrived in individual ownership. And so the door was opened for monopoly and for fraud." Of the reaction and the evolution of a new policy, the Secretary con. tinues: • ' " A reaction was inevitable. If lands were to be withdrawn from public service, why might not the government do the withdrawing itself? The old philosophy that land is land' was evidently unfitted to a country where land is sometimes timber and sometimes coal; indeed, where land may mean water—water for tens of thousands of needy neighboring acres. For the lands of the West differ as men do, in character and condition and degree of usefulness. We had not recognized this fact when we said 'land is land.' Lands fitted for dry farming and lands that must forever lie unused without irrigation; lands that are worthless save for their timber; lands that are rich in grasses and lands that are poor in grasses; lands underlain with the non-precious minerals essential to industry or agriculture; lands that are invaluable for reservoir or dam sites— these varieties may be multiplied, and each new variety emphasizes the fact that each kind of land has its own future and affords its own opportunity for contributing to the nation's wealth.

Jan 1, 1915

By J. C. Osler

The design of a tailings dam is a geotechnical engineering project of considerable scope. For the design, it is necessary to establish the engineering properties of the soil or rock strata which will support the dam and the tailings or other fill which will be used to construct the dam. The various field and laboratory investigations which are necessary to obtain the required design parameters are discussed in the paper and the use of these parameters to compute stability, settlement, and seepage are considered. The designer of a tailings dam can never assume an absolute knowledge of the properties of the foundation strata. Further, initial design assumptions are often approximate, particularly with regard to the distribution of pore pressures through and beneath the dam. Thus, the installation of performance monitoring instruments is recommended, since data obtained from such instrumentation can be used to check the stability of the structure both during construction and after its completion.

Jan 1, 1972

By WALDEMAR T. SCHALLER, EDWARD P. HENDERSON

THE material available for mineralogic study, consisted of drill cores, 2 to 3 in. thick, supplemented by small well cuttings. Such study has added no essential new information regarding the minerals, though the refractive indices, used for determinative purposes, have been determined more accurately than before, permitting the development of a scheme for the rapid identification of these minerals. The essential points brought out by the investigation are two: (1) that certain mineral associations evidently point the way to an understanding of the geologic history and (2) that a definite sequence of mineral formation has taken place so that the original minerals formed have been in part-reacted on producing new compounds and associations; Twenty minerals have been found. The most important are :

Jan 1, 1929

By H. W. Schreiber, H. R. Babitzke, R. E. Rodriquez, Patterson J. A., C. D. Masters, J. J. Schanz, R. B. McCammon, E. A. Noble, P. M. Krishna

A five-year effort by the ASTM subcommittee E10.14 on uranium resource evaluation has culminated in the approval of E901-82, Classification System for Uranium Resources (ASTM Standard E901-82, April 1983). The standard classification was prepared with participation of representatives from the US Department of Energy, the US Department of Interior's Geological Survey and Bureau Mines, utilities, and consultants. The classification a resource is based on level of knowledge and the economic producibility of the resource at a given time. Alphanumeric identifiers are used rather than words to avoid confusion with existing terms, definitions, and classifications. An example demonstrates the dynamic nature of the process of classification and attests to the necessity of addressing both the aggregate needs of broad-scale resource planning and the specific needs of individual property evaluation. Problems that remain infixing the classification a given uranium resource include uncertainty in estimating the quantity of undiscovered resources and resolving differences that may exist in deciding when the drill-hole spacing is adequate to determine the tonnage and grade of discovered resources.

Jan 1, 1985

By George Smith

THE Secretary of the Interior in his recent report to the President has defined the new public-land policy, which is in fact "but a new application of an old policy." His words may be more acceptable on this subject of land classification than the repetition of phrases which have served some of us for several years. Secretary Lane says of the past: "Congress has always been most generous as to the disposition of the national lands. . . . There was land for all, and it was the government's glad function to distribute it and let those profit who could. . . . And this generous donor was not so petty as to discriminate between kinds of lands, the uses to which they could be put, or the purposes which those might have who got them. Land is land, save when it contains minerals; this was roughly the broad principle adopted. To classify was a task too difficult or not worth while. The lands would classify themselves when they arrived in individual ownership. And so the door was opened for monopoly and for fraud. Of the reaction and the evolution of a new policy, the Secretary continues: "A reaction was inevitable. If lands were to be withdrawn from public service, why might not the government do the withdrawing itself? The old philosophy that `land is land' was evidently unfitted to a country where land is sometimes timber and sometimes coal; indeed, where land may mean water-water for tens of thousands of needy neighboring acres. For the lands of the West differ as men do, in character and condition and degree of usefulness. We had not recognized this fact when we said `land is land.' Lands fitted for dry farming and lands that must forever lie unused without irrigation; lands that are worthless save for their timber; lands that are rich in grasses and lands that. are poor in grasses; lands underlain with the non-precious minerals essential to industry or agriculture; lands that are invaluable for reservoir or dam sites these varieties may be multiplied, and each new variety emphasizes the fact that each kind of land has its own future and affords its own opportunity for contributing to the nation's wealth.

Jan 6, 1914

By H. K. Work

THE Bessemer process is one of the most interesting methods of making steel. At one time it was by far the most important. In recent years, however, it has steadily lost ground to the open-hearth process. The forces working against this method of steelmaking are partly economic and partly metallurgical.' In this paper, dealing as it does with the control of the process, the metallurgical factors alone will be considered, although it is obvious that economic factors must play a part in determining the ultimate status of the Bessemer process. This discussion has been limited in another respect-it deals primarily with the acid Bessemer process in bottom-blown converters, although much of the information is applicable to basic and side-blown converters. The fact that open-hearth steel has superseded Bessemer steel to a large extent has tended to create an impression that Bessemer steel is inferior. As a matter of fact, Bessemer steel is actually superior to open-hearth for many applications.2 There are, however, definite metallurgical limitations to the use of Bessemer steel, resulting largely from two factors: (I) the physical properties conferred by nitrogen and phosphorus, and (2) the variability from blow to blow. These, of course, are not entirely independent, since some of the variability covered in the second item is undoubtedly due to nitrogen. But the variability is also caused by other factors. One of these is the relatively small size of the Bessemer heats. Because of this, a given shipment of Bessemer steel is more likely than a shipment of open-hearth steel to contain the product of several heats, each with its own distinctive and slightly different characteristics. Added to this is the fact that the refining of Bessemer steel proceeds so rapidly that the timing of the end point is limited to a matter of seconds, whereas the finishing period in the open hearth extends over a period of one or two hours and the timing of the end point may vary by several minutes without seriously affecting the product. There is no doubt that this has contributed to the variability of Bessemer steel and has led to the use of open-hearth steel in many optional applications. That Bessemer steel may vary is not necessarily objectionable, and it may even prove an advantage, providing a precise control is available to secure the desired qualities for any specific application. With this in mind, a comprehensive research program was undertaken, one phase of which was directed toward securing more accurate control of the blow. The results have been encouraging, and it is the purpose of this paper to describe a method in which modern scientific instruments, based on photocells, are currently being employed to assist the blower. THE CONTROL PROBLEM In this day of scientific control of technical processes, where the operating

Jan 1, 1941

Our merchant marine is rapidly outgrowing our consular service, according to Edward N. Hurley, Chairman of the United States Shipping Board, who urges that steps be taken immediately to provide facilities abroad for handling the millions of tons of shipping which will be afloat under the American flag in peaceful trade when the war is over. When peace is restored and our present tonnage is scattered over world trade routes, the consular service will be inadequate to handle our ships: Besides, it will have to work against the handicaps of obsolete shipping regulations and, in many cases, lack of experience. There are nearly 100 pages in the United States consular regulations dealing with shipping platters. . Many of these regulations are based on old treaties and many of them are obsolete. There are also differences between treaties with various countries. Our consuls often lack authority to handle matters involving the interests of our sailors and shipowners. Before we can operate a modern merchant marine we must revise, standardize, and simplify this whole mass of regulations and bring them up to the efficiency of other nations' practice.

Jan 12, 1918

By Pramod C. Thakur

Introduction Methane is contained under pressure within the fractures and adsorbed on the surface of the coal seams and adjacent strata. It is released into the mine atmosphere during mining of the seam creating explosive gas-air mixtures. Large volumes of air, sometimes as high as 20 tons of air for each ton of coal mined, are circulated constantly to dilute and carry away methane from coal mines. Removal of methane from solid coal, wherever high methane emissions occur, has been discussed by Spindler and Poundstone (1960) and Thakur and Davis (1977). Methane control in longwall gobs is much more complicated. As longwall mining progresses, the overburden continually subsides, and the immediate roof caves behind the roof supports. Even the underlying strata heave and open up communication channels feeding gas to the longwall gobs. The pressure of gas in the underlying and overlying strata is usually higher than the ambient air pressure in the mine. Thus the mine workings become natural pressure sinks, into which gas flows from the entire disturbed zone. Winter (1975) defines this zone as the "gas emission space". Depending on the number of gas-bearing zones in the gas emission space and their gas contents, the total methane emission from longwall gobs could vary from a few to more than one hundred cubic meters of gas per ton of mined coal. Hence the ventilation of longwall faces demands a large quantity of air. This ventilation need is further enhanced by high air losses specially on caving faces (with no stowing of the gobs). The old system of longwall ventilation, the 'U' pattern, where all the air was brought down one gate road and exited through the other gate road, loses large quantities of air through gobs giving a high methane concentration at the return end of the face. The 'Y' ventilation pattern where intake air is brought down both head and tail gate roads relieves the situation to some extent but, on most longwalls, some kind of methane control is still needed. With the onset of longwall mining in Europe several decades ago, the initial work on methane control on longwall has naturally been done there. The basic principle of methane control has always been, and still remains, some means of "bypassing methane from the gas emission space without letting it mix with the mine air". In most cases the bypassing mechanism is either a strategically located borehole or a roadway. A successful methane control program depends on the following basic premises: a. Determination of the geometry of the gas emission space and location of gas bearing horizons therein. b. Estimation of the rate of methane influx into the longwall gob. c. A scheme to bypass the gas in the most economic and efficient manner and thus prevent it from entering the mine atmosphere. In successful methane drainage programs a high proportion, usually between 50 and 70 percent, of the total gas emissions in a working district is removed before it can enter the mine airways. Advantages of methane drainage can be summarized as: 1. Generally reduced methane levels in the mine leading to increased safety and productivity. 2. Reduced air requirements and corresponding savings in ventilation horsepower. 3. Faster rate of advance for development headings and economy in the size of headings. 4. Possible use of mine gas as an additional source of fuel. The purpose of this paper is to briefly review the geometry of gas emission space and methane influx therein and discuss more successful European and U.S. longwall gob gas control techniques.

Jan 1, 1981

Report of Secretary TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF MINING AND METALLURGICAL ENGINEERS Gentlemen -I herewith present a report of some of the more important activities of the Institute for the year of 1922. The outstanding feature of the year is the optimism felt by our members despite the continued depression in the mining industry. January 1, 1921, found many of our members out of employment or drifting into other industries to tide them over the depression; but almost universally the feeling has been that this was but a temporary condition and that sooner or later the necessary production of raw materials would enable these members to return to their former activities and renew their participation in Institute affairs As the year passed conditions improved and, before it ended, many had found employment in their previous occupations. Bearing in mind that this depression has been very real, we have reason to be well satisfied with the work that the Institute has been able to do The loss of members through inability to pay dues has been large, and income has been correspondingly reduced, but it proved to be materially in excess of that anticipated early in the year, so that a substantial and unanticipated balance was carried forward toward the activities of 1923.

Jan 1, 1923

By Charles Frey

TIE fundamental principle of resistance thermometry lies in the determination of temperatures by the measurement of an electrical conductor subjected to various temperatures and the translation of the resultant changes, in ohms, into temperature equivalents. Such resistance measurements can be made with maximum precision by the use of a standard Wheatstone bridge and a reflecting galvanometer of high sensitivity. Under such conditions, results are obtainable that may be accurate within 0.1 or even 0.01 per cent., and the "idiosyncrasies" of heated electrical conductors can be studied with advantage and profit, even if the latter is not of a financial nature. The chief requisites for producing a serviceable -commercial instrument may be enumerated as follows: First, there must be a resistor or "bulb" that can stand the maximum temperature without deterioration and which has a pronounced temperature coefficient. Second, there should be constructed an "even" bridge, having two fixed arms of equal values, in ohms. Third, a rheostat, the maximum resistance of which will be equal to the total change in the resistance of the bulb, between temperature extremes, is required. Fourth, there must be a sensitive galvanometer which is aperiodic, or nearly so. Finally, there should be a fairly steady source of direct current. The general scheme of this type of apparatus, in its simplest form, can be readily understood by reference to Fig. 1. Resistors A and B are constructed of manganin, therlo, or some other resistance wire having a negligible temperature coefficient. The sensitive D'Arsonval galvanometer G has its zero in the center. R is a rheostat and X is a resistor or bulb made of insulated platinum wire, or else of nickel, copper, or some alloy, according to requirements. K is a battery, but a direct-current service line is often used instead, with sufficient ballast in series to properly reduce the current.

Jan 8, 1919

By Ernest A. Hersam

Accurate ore-sizing with screens is drawing attention to certain details that now, more than ever before, require attention. There are many tests that must be preceded by careful sizing. The assayer often could profit by a more careful selection of screens. In milling, more attention is given the slimes produced. Cement-manufacturers are pulverizing and screening finer than they formerly did, and others are reducing materials to fine sizes at high cost, with screens used to govern the fineness of the pulverized product. Fine screens are expensive, easily injured by misuse, are carried in stock sparingly by most dealers, and are handled often by those who know little about them except their designated number. More attention, on the whole, needs be given the actual size of the mesh-openings, and less emphasis placed upon any custom or conventionality in numbering. An effort to classify wire screens, in this respect, leads at once into computations, where one is confronted with details of sizes and standards, of different wires, different gauges, and different customs. There is always uncertainty about the exact working-size of a screen until one gives the matter special attention, and devotes more time to it than its simplicity seems to demand. To know only the number is not sufficient for all uses. Often, in sets, superfluous sizes are used; and sizes are omitted that are of critical importance. In wire screens, the use of different standard sizes of wire makes important differences in dimensions that must be taken into account. The dealer usually grades screens by the number of openings per linear dimensions, regardless of the size of the openings or of the wire. Certain 100-mesh screens in use are found, by measurement, to be actually coarser than others of 90-mesh, a result which is due, of course, to the use of larger

Jan 1, 1907

By Rudolf Kudlich

THE problem of eliminating the hazards of hoisting in mines has been with us since the industry passed its earliest stages, when coal and ore could be won from surface working and tunnels. At first, safety devices were introduced as means of decreasing the amount of labor necessary, to produce the mineral, or to increase the amount that could be obtained from a certain opening. For example, crude, ladders replaced winding footpaths or steps cut into the walls of the pit or shaft, decreasing the distance it was necessary to carry the product to the surface and eliminating, to some extent, the hazard introduced by the precarious footing afforded by such paths and steps. Later, instead of being carried from the pit on the backs of men, the product was hoisted in buckets or baskets on a rope passing over a pulley or around a windlass. Thus the capacity of the pit was considerably increased, and the hazard due to making many trips up and down the shaft was eliminated. From such beginnings accident prevention in mine hoisting advanced with the importance of the industry, until at present hoisting compares favorably with other branches of the mining industry with reference to safe practices. As in the other branches, this progress has been accomplished along two general lines-by legislation, rules, and education, and by the installation of safety devices. Though due credit must be given the former, it is not so satisfactory as the latter. Legislation, to be effective, requires a policing and inspection system to guarantee enforcement, such as we cannot hope to inaugurate. Rules may be satisfactory so long as the employer controls the labor market, and dismissal or some other form of discipline is an effective means of insuring obedience to the rules; but where labor demand is in excess of the supply, or where labor organizations are in control, such measures are not effective. An educational campaign will draw attention to hazards and may awaken a desire to avoid accidents by exercising the proper care.

Jan 2, 1922

By AIME AIME

THE American copper mining industry is threatened with disintegration and destruction. This threat is not one which may only materialize in the distant future. The destruction has already commenced. At present, many domestic mines have already closed down. .Others are operating on a greatly curtailed basis. Those operating are doing so only at tremendous loss-because the selling price of copper is below the cost of production and rapidly diminishing financial resources and credit clearly forecast the early suspension of operations in most of the industry. Unemployment in the mining districts is increasing by leaps and bounds. While this condition is due in some measure to the present unsatisfactory state of business in general, the copper industry, unlike other lines of business, sees no possibility of recovery without definite aid. The fundamental, underlying cause of present conditions in the American copper mining industry is the unprecedented rise in foreign production, and the basic change which has taken place in the world copper industry in the last three years. The American industry had begun to feel this change early in 1929 long before the general collapse of business in the fall of that year. While the distress in the industry is undoubtedly aggravated by the present economic depression, it nevertheless would have arrived and. have been present at this time, regardless of general business conditions.

Jan 1, 1932

Jan 1, 1956

Jan 1, 1957