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Various aspects of judgment and decision-making are key themes in this book. The model presented here serves as a loose structure for the chapters that follow this one. The notion of a model is introduced because growing research interest in the subjective aspects of group and individual behavior has led to a debate over whether judgment is a skill that can be understood scientifically. A related point of contention is whether such an understanding could lead to the development of methods for estimating people's ability to make good decisions during an emergency. There is some literature that supports the potential usefulness of this approach. However, little agreement seems to have been reached on how to define and operationalize even those basic concepts necessary to assess the soundness of decisions from within their environmental and group contexts [Jensen and Benel 1977; Godden and Baddeley 1979; Baumann and Bourbonnais 1982; Brecke 1982; Stone et al. 1985]. A look at the real-world process is clearly needed. The need to attempt a better understanding of judgment and decision-making properties stems from those occasions in the existence of an organization when there is a lot at stake. The process of decision-making (which is part of the exercise of judgment) has been analyzed in situations such as corporate takeovers [Janis and Mann1977], military combat [Begland1979], clinical emergencies [Baumann and Bourbonnais 1982], and aviation events [Billings and Reynard1984]. The fundamental assumption of these analyses is that, while there are untold successes, there are also notable numbers of failures resulting from decisions that can be ascribed to one or more errors in judgment. From a cognitive perspective, any person engaged in decision-making (either alone or in a group) is actively involved in a process characterized by certain elements. These were mentioned in chapter 1, but are reiterated briefly at this point: (1) detection of a problem, (2) definition or diagnosis, (3) consideration of available options, (4) choice of what is perceived as the best option given recognized needs, and (5) execution of the choice based on what has transpired [Flathers et al. 1982; Baumann and Bourbonnais 1982]. At any moment in this process, there are factors at play that have a large impact on one's ability to solve complex problems in a limited time: (1) an internal state [Hedge and Lawson 1979] is the sum of a person's psychomotor skills, knowledge, attitudes, etc.; (2) uncertainty [Brecke 1982] is caused by faulty or incomplete information received from the external environment; (3) stress [Biggs 1968; Jensen and Benel 1977] is generated both by the problem at hand and any background problem that may exist; and (4) complexity, as it is used here, refers to the number of elements involved that must be attended to. These variables are depicted in figure 5.1, and their relationship to each other and to an outcome is indicated. This schema is designed to suggest interaction, because while the judgment and decision-making process may be conceptualized as discrete stages, experience tells us that this is not the way people function in real-world situations.

Jan 1, 2000

By O. C. Blade

Sales of diesel fuel in the United States exceeded 150,000,000 barrels during 1953 and 140,000,000 barrels during 1952. Following are some figures on the distribution of this fuel computed from data issued by the Bureau of Mines. 2/ [ ] Deliveries of diesel type fuel from refineries totaled 91,170,000 barrels during the first six months of 1954, 3/ a corresponding figure for 1953 was 86,284,000 barrels.

Jan 1, 1954

By A. J. Kraemer

This report on the physical and chemical properties of typical crude oils of California is the 'eighth in a series on the producing districts of the United States. It includes discussion of results, tabulated data, and individual analyses of typical California crudes. Additional analyses of crude oils from the fields of Fresno, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, end Ventura Counties will be published later in another Serial of the Bureau, but the summary tabulations are presented here. The samples represented in this report were collected over a rather wide interval of tine, the early samples having been obtained during the fall of 1919, and the most recent ones dating from the summer of 1923. It is thought that the samples are fairly representative, both of the older settled production and of the new flush production of the southern California fields.

Jan 1, 1924

By Th. G. Sahama

This paper contains some new heat-of-solution measurements of geikielite (MgTiO3), limonite (FeTiO3), fayalite (Fe2SiO4), and a natural forsterite in mixed acid (HF +HCl) and gives the results of a thermodynamic attack on the problem of stability of geikielite in rocks.

Jan 1, 1949

By Charles L. Kimbell

In 1988, the aggregate value of total world international export trade in mineral commodities was estimated at nearly $542 billion in current (1988) dollars, which was about 8.6% above the 1987 level, but still 23.7% below the record high set in 1980. Comparable comprehensive data for 1989 were not available in time for inclusion in this chapter, but 1989 returns for developed market economy countries only were 1 1.8% above those for 1988. These countries accounted for about 50% of the total mineral commodity export trade in 1988. It would be unsound to utilize the overall 11.8% growth rate for mineral commodity export trade for these countries to extrapolate the growth in total world mineral commodity trade because these developed market economy countries account for substantially different shares of the five major mineral commodity groups listed in table 2. Specifically, developed market economy countries in 1988 accounted for 56% of world export of ore, concentrate, and scrap, 74.7% of world exports of iron and steel, 71.7% of world exports of nonferrous metals, and 57.8% of all exports of crude nonmetals, but only 26.6% of world exports of mineral fuels. Moreover, even within each of these groups, the actual product mix included in developed market economy country aggregates differ from that in developing market economy country aggregates and in centrally planned economy country aggregates. Nonetheless, an increase of 9% to 12% in the value of world mineral commodity export trade seems indicated by available returns.

Jan 1, 1992

By H. W. Sohns

A retort was constructed in which fine particles of shale, entrained in steam or other gaseous media, could be retorted at controlled temperatures and residence times and the effects of retorting variables upon quality and quantity of products could be determined. Studies of the effects of temperature upon products obtained from Green River (Piceance Creek Basin, Colo.) and Chattanooga (Tenn.) oil shales were completed. The feasibility of using the retort to process a shale of extremely high moisture content from Brazil also was investigated. Air was used as the entraining medium in a series of studies in which combustion of some of the products of retorting within the retort tube supplied a major portion of the process heat. In another series, shale oil from a conventional retort was cracked thermally to obtain data for comparison with results of retorting en-trained shale. In still another series the effects of rates of steam flow and solids feed upon rates of heat transfer from the furnace to the process stream were studied. Crushed quartz rather than oil shale was charged to the retort in this series. A study was begun in which raw shale was partly retorted, the products separated, and the partially retorted shale recharged to the retort. The shale was to have been recycled until it was completely retorted in an effort to improve oil yield by recycle retorting; however, the project was terminated before the investigation was completed.

Jan 1, 1959

By Walter R. Storms

This paper , which describes the mining methods and costs at the Atwood copper mine in the Lordsburg ( Virginia ) Mining District of Hidalgo County , N. Mex . , is one of a series being prepared by the Mining Division of the Bureau of Mines on mining practices , methods , and costs in various mining districts of the United States . The mine and surface plant are situated in the west half of sec . 7 , T. 23 S. , R. 18 W. , about 3 miles by road southwest of the center of Lordsburg , near the old abandoned townsite of Valedon ( see fig . 1 ) . The main line of the Southern Pacific Railroad passes through Lordsburg , as does the paved eastwest U. S. Highway 70-80 . A spur line of the Southern Pacific ends near the mine . A good graded road connects the mine with Lordsburg . The following pages present a brief history of the district , describe the geology , and outline methods of prospecting and exploration, including sampling and estimations of tonnages and values . Development, and mining methods are explained , and transportation , ventilation , drainage ,. safety measures , and organization are described . The wage scale and costs of development and mining comprise the corrcluding sections of this circular .

May 1, 1949

By Albert W. Deurbrouck

This report describes the preparation characteristics of the significant, presently producing coalbeds in Mercer County, W. Va. Approximately 650,000 tons of coal was produced in Mercer County, W. Va., in 1960, of which over 630,000 tons was cleaned in four preparation plants. In 1960 the Pocahontas Nos. 3, 6, and 11 coalbeds supplied 99.5 percent of the total coal mined in the county. Because the number of working mines In this county was small, only six samples were collected; four of which were of metallurgical quality as mined. The remaining two samples could be upgraded by washing at suitable specific gravities. Many of the samples taken were of metallurgical quality as mined; however, the float-and-sink analysis on these coals has been included to point out their amenability to the production of premium quality, special purpose coals. In general the coals were low-volatile bituminous in rank with low ash and sulfur contents.

Jan 1, 1963

By D. C. Dahlin

To identify and characterize potential domestic chromium resources, the Bureau of Mines investigated podifom chromite deposits along the Border Ranges Fault in southern Alaska. Part 1 of this two-part report describes an extensive field investigation and preliminary resource evaluation studies by the Bureau's Alaska Field Operations Center. This paper, part 2, describes the mineralogy of 38 samples that were collected from low-grade deposits in the Chugach Mountains, on the Kenai Peninsula, and on Kodiak Island, and presents the results of laboratory batch beneficiation tests designed to concentrate the chromite. The samples are peridotites and chromites that consist primarily of variable amounts of chromite, olivine, and serpentine. They were beneficiated by a sequence of grinding, sizing, and gravity concentration operations. Twenty-four high-chromium or marginal high-chromium chromite concentrates, six high-iron or marginal high-iron chromite concentrates, and five submarginal concentrates were produced with chromium recoveries that ranged from 37 to 95 pct. Three very low-grade samples were not beneficiated. These results indicate that several of the de- posits may be significant chromium resources, Potential precious metals association with the chromite was also investigated. Analysis of these samples indicates that the chromite deposits are not good platinum sources.

Jan 1, 1985

By F. F. Aplan, J. A. Gutierrez-Rodriguez

"Contact-angle and flotation techniques were used to evaluate the influence of oxygen - both that inherent in the coal and that introduced by ambient temperature, aqueous oxidation - on a wide range of coal ranks. Oxidation was found to decrease the hydrophobicity and floatability of coal; with the effect being minor for coals of high rank but becoming increasingly important as the rank of coal is reduced. As an approximation, oxidation makes a coal behave as if it were one of lower rank. Frother only flotation' of coal· correlates with the captive-bubble contact angle whereas when oil is used as a collector, the flotation appears to follow the pattern shown by the water sessile drop on a fresh, un-reagentized coal surface. Coal recovery lost through oxidation may often be recovered by use of a variety of collectors, of which No. 2 foe! oil is among the best of those reagents tested. A simple alkali-extraction test may be used to estimate the influence of oxidation on coal preparation processes and use.INTRODUCTIONThe hydrophobicity of coal is not only a function of its rank but also of the extent of oxidation of the coal during and subsequent to its formation. Weathering and oxidation processes may proceed in-situ for coal deposits that outcrop near the earth's surface, or the oxidation of the coal particles may occur during mining, stockpiling or processing. Such oxidation, whether it affects the bulk-coal sample or on1y a thin outer layer on the coal surface, can dramatically influence the wettability of the particle and hence such processes as flotation, filtration, flocculation and dispersion.Many of the studies made on the oxidation of coals ·were designed to study its effect on flotation, coking or pyrolysis. The. present study 'is directed exclusively toward the effect of oxidation on the hydrophobicity and floatability of the coal. One of the first studies of the effect of oxidation on coal flotation was that of Sun [l] who found that as oxidation proceeds, coal becomes progressively more hydrophilic. Low-temperature oxidation (100-150°C for 250 h) generally lowered the coal floatability with an oily collector only slightly, but more extensive oxidation (200- 3500 C for 250 h) reduced coal floatability seriously. Sun also found that cationic amines were effective collectors for the oxidized coal which infers that oxidation makes the coal more negative in solution. He attributed the loss of floatability to be due to the accumulation of water-insoluble oxidation products at the coal surface. Gayle et al. [2] found that oxidation adversely affected coal flotation when an aliphatic-alcohol frother was used, though a small amount of oxidation appeared to improve the floatability of some coals using a kerosene-pine oil, collector-frother mixture in pilot-plant testing. Prolonged oxidation adversely affected the flotation recovery of the coals tested, the effect being more pronounced when an alcoholic-type frother only was used. They also noted that the reduction in floatability of lower rank bituminous coals was more affected by oxidation than was that of higher rank bituminous coals."

Jan 1, 1989

Since March 28, domestic producer prices on 99.5 percent aluminum ingot have been at 5l¢ per pound. Dealers in this same time frame have held ingot quotes at 49¢-50.5¢ per pound. COBALT: Imports from southern Africa in 1976 constituted 73 percent of total cobalt imports. Moreover, the United States is 98 percent dependent on imports of cobalt. For this reason, the Bureau of Mines is closely monitoring developments abroad to ensure an advance notice of any possibility of a shortfall in supply. Included in these imports were those from Zaire (41 percent directly from Zaire and 15 percent via Belgium-Luxembourg), Zambia (11 percent), and Botswana (6 percent). Also being closely watched are industry stocks.

Jan 1, 1977

By David R. Peterson

This report presents a deep ocean mining operational simulation which is capable of describing the response of the bottom collection unit to specified mining ship maneuvers and the corresponding operation of the mining ship maneuvering system. Bathymetry, obstacles, collector and pipe dynamics and ship maneuvering capabilities are included in the simulation. The simulation is capable of evaluating the technical requirements and operating costs for specified mine plans, Results are useful in assessing mine size requirements and provide operating 'cost 'estimates useful as inputs to deep ocean mining economic feasibility assessments, The simulation is used to determine the consequences of obstacles to mining system operations in terms of impact on mine size requirements and reduced production arising from obstacle avoidance maneuvers of a towed (unsteered) collector.

Jan 1, 1979

By Kenneth G. Skinner, Hewitt Wilson, Thomas L. Hurst

Although chromite deposits occur in California , Oregon, Washington, Montana, Wyoming , Pennsylvania, Maryland , New Mexico , North Carolina, Alaska, and the Phillippine Islands , less than 1 percent of the ore used in the United States is obtained from these deposits . Most of the ore in peacetime has been supplied by imports from South Africa, New Caledonia, Turkey, and Cuba . The mineral chromite , the most important chromium ore , is an isometric spinel with an ideal composition of FeO Cr2O3 , but commercial chromite has the variable composition (Fe , Mg) Oʻ (Cr , Al , Fe) 203. Chromite has a black color , a specific gravity of 4.4 , and a hardness of 5.5 . In thin section the color is reddish -brown to black . Chromite occurs in dunite and pyroxenitic ultrabasic rocks , which are composed of iron- magnesium silicate minerals such as olivine , saxonite , serpentine , and enstatite . These are also the gangue minerals . Com mercial ore occurs at random in the country rock in kidney- or lens - shaped deposits , which have no apparent relationship to each other . Stringers , veins , and bands often cut the country rock without regard either to fracture or to other deposits . Some beach sands , such as those in southern Oregon, contain chromite .

Mar 1, 1943

Reduce face methane concentrations and help prevent miners from working under unsupported roof while moving the curtain. Approach Use water sprays on the continuous mining machine to move and direct air to the face, and also provide appropriate installation guidelines for the most effective use of the system. I n laboratory tests and under actual mining conditions, the spray fan has proved an effective means of ventilation. Recent observations in the field, however, have shown that not enough technical information is widely available on proper installation of the spray fan. This Technology News is designed to rectify that situation by providing a concise guide for spray fan installation. How the System Works Good ventilation is essential for methane control. The spray fan system repositions regular water sprays to help the normal exhaust face ventilation do a more effective job. The various water sprays help in many ways: 1. Side sprays bring clean air along the side of the miner into the off-curtain corner.

Jan 1, 1983

By A. B. Needham

A number of the pegmatites in the southern Black Hills of western South Dakota contain sheet mica; and as the demand increased during World War II the area became an important producer of strategic qualities of mica. During this period of maximum activity, the U. S.. Geological Survey made detailed studies of the geological structural control, the mineralogical associations, and the production Of many pegmatites in the Black Hills. On the basis of results of this study, and at the suggestion of the Geological Survey, several of the pegmatites were examined by the Bureau of Mines, and a few were selected for further investigation. Accordingly, the White Bear, Silver Dollar, Buster Dike, and Hot Shot mines were diamond-core-drilled in 1947. The Hot Shot mine was investigated further by deepening the shaft and crosscutting the pegmatite in 1948. The mica-bearing deposits occur in lenticular intrusions of pegmatite in schists of various mineral composition. Eleven diamond-drill holes, totaling 2,111.4 feet in length, were completed on the four deposits. The shaft on the Hot Shot deposit was deepened 44 feet to the 112-foot level, and crosscuts were driven from the bottom of the shaft to the hanging Wall and foot wall of the pegmatite. This publication briefly describes the location, ownership, and history of the deposits and gives details of the work done by the Bureau of Mines and the Geological Survey.

Jan 1, 1950

By R D. Fleming

A single-cylinder research engine was operated on pure hydrocarbons and simple (two-component) mixtures of pure hydrocarbons to study the effect of fuel composition on exhaust emissions from a spark-ignition engine. Used as fuels were three pure hydrocarbons that represented the primary hydrocarbon types present in commercial motor fuels: A paraffin (2,2,4-trimethylpentane), an olefin (2,4,4-trimethylpentene-2), and an aromatic (meta-xylene). The engine was operated at the same equivalence ratio for all of the fuels used in the experiment. Exhaust gas samples were collected and quantitatively analyzed for carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, nitrogen oxides, aldehydes, and hydrocarbons. Exhaust hydrocarbons were separated and quantitatively measured with a chromatographic system employing a flame-ionization detector. Unknown hydrocarbons and oxygenated materials in the exhaust were identified with a Time-of-Flight mass spectrometer coupled to a chromatographic system. The results of the exhaust gas analyses showed that ethylbenzene, l-methyl-3-ethylbenzene, and l-methyl-3-vinylbenzene were more abundant in the exhausts from either 2,2,4-trimethylpentane--m-xylene or 2,4,4-trimethylpentene-2--m-xylene fuel mixtures than in exhaust produced from m-xylene. Also, the pure 2,4,4-trimethylpentene-2 fuel produced smaller amounts of C2 to C7 olefins in the exhaust than that produced by the pure 2,2,4-trimethylpentane fuel. The exhaust from pure m-xylene fuel contained aromatic hydrocarbons of higher molecular weight than the parent fuel. The amount of total hydrocarbon (moles of exhaust hydrocarbon per mole of fuel used) in the exhaust from the three pure fuels decreased in the following order: 2,2,4-trimethylpentane > 2,4,4-trimethylpentene-2 > m-xylene. The hydrocarbon mole-fractions of unreacted fuel in the exhausts produced from each of the pure fuels were 0.20 for 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, 0.13 for 2,4,4-trimethylpentene-2, and 0.66 for m-xylene.

Jan 1, 1970

By G. W. Jones

In cooperation with the Edison Electric Illuminating Co. of Boston, Mass., and the Boston Consolidated Gas Co., a survey has been conducted continuously since 1929 by the Bureau of Mines to determine the general hazards of combustible gases and vapors in manholes of the Edison Electric Illuminating Co. The New England Telephone & Telegraph Co. also has cooperated in the investigation, and tests have been made in its manholes since May 1, 1933. Yearly reports6/ on the results obtained since the beginning of the survey have been published. The method and procedure of conducting the survey in 1936 were the same as heretofore.

Jan 1, 1938

By G. W. Jones

In cooperation with the Edison Electric Illuminating Co. of Boston, Mass., and the Boston Consolidated Gas Co., a survey has been conducted continuously since 1929 by the Bureau of Mines to determine the general hazards of combustible gases and vapors in manholes of the Edison Electric Illuminating Co. The New England Telephone & Telegraph Co. also has cooperated in the investigation, and tests have been made in its manholes since May 1, 1933. Yearly reports6/ on the results obtained since the beginning of the survey have been published. The method and procedure of conducting the survey in 1936 were the same as heretofore.

Jan 1, 1938

By G. L. Hundley

The Bureau of Mines has devised a procedure to recover chromium chemicals from concentrates derived from low-grade domestic chromites. These domestic chromites contain silicon and aluminum impurities at levels that are too high to permit processing by present industrial processes. The Bureau procedure consists of reacting chromite with molten NaOH under oxidizing conditions to form sodium chromate (Na2Cr04)' The reaction product is leached with methanol to recover the majority of the unreacted NaOH, then with water to extract the Na2Cr04 and the remainder of the NaOH. The Na2Cr04 product is recovered by evaporative crystallization from the aqueous solution. This report presents laboratory results of studies to determine the optimum leaching conditions for the reaction products of several domestic chromite concentrates. Results of solution purification and crystallization studies are also presented. The concentrates are from a variety of sources including the Stillwater Complex in Montana, Red Bluff Bay and the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska, and a Ni-Co laterite from southern Oregon. Sodium chromate crystals were produced that contained less than 0.01 pct NaOH.

Jan 1, 1988

By K. Robert Dorman

Spray-applied polyurethane foam was used to insulate the walls of heated rooms excavated in permafrost. The experiment was designed to determine whether polyurethane foam can be sprayed successfully on frozen ground under freezing conditions and to measure the effectiveness of the insulation in maintaining--at elevated temperatures for an extended period--a room excavated in frozen ground. Two manufacturers' foams were investigated in the laboratory. Subsequently, one of the foams was employed to insulate two small rooms, one in frozen gravel and one in frozen silt, in an experimental tunnel belonging to the U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (USACRREL) near Fairbanks, Alaska. Following insulation, heat was introduced into the two rooms. Heat migration across the insulating barrier into the walls, in addition to wall closures, was monitored over an 8-month period. The results show that polyurethane foam can be successfully sprayed on frozen ground in below-freezing temperatures. Given this type of insulation, together with winter cold to supercool the surrounding ground, it should be possible to maintain a shaft or heated room in permafrost for several years.

Jan 1, 1970