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By Helmut Westermayr, Michael Tergl

DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT Geographic Setting The Kops II plant is a pumped storage scheme of the hydroelectric power producer ‘Vorarlberger Illwerke AG’ which is currently under construction in the Austrian Province of Vorarlberg. The plant is located at the end of the Montafon valley and will be fed with water coming from the Silvretta mountain range (Figure 1) Description of Plant The Kops II plant shall be operated as a pumped storage plant with three highly flexible and quickly controllable power generating units. Each unit shall have a capacity of 150 MW and shall be equipped for both turbine operation and pump operation. The Kops II plant uses the existing Kops Lake as upper storage reservoir and the existing Rifa balancing reservoir as lower storage reservoir. All major plant components of the Kops II scheme are located below ground. Total investment costs areapprox. 360 million Euro. Construction Lots The construction works for the Kops II plant, which were subdivided into three lots, were launched in September 2004. It is planned that the first power generating unit shall go on line in the year 2007. The completion of the overall project and the operation start-up of the second and third unit are envisaged for the year 2008. Lot 1—Pressure Tunnel. The 5.5-km-long pressure tunnel forms the connection between the Kops Lake and the beginning of the pressure shaft. The tunnel was excavated by the use of a double-shield TBM. Lot 2—Pressure Shaft and Surge Chamber. The approx. 1.1-km-long pressure shaft was excavated by TBM, advancing from bottom to top. Featuring an inclination of80%, the pressure shaft overcomes a difference in height of approx. 700 m. Lot 3—Power House Cavern and Tailrace Structure. The power house cavern, which is being built approx. 150 m inside the mountain, forms the core of this plant. The power house is designed to accommodate three power generating units, and the transformer cavern is forseen to accommodate three transformer units. The tailrace structure serves the purpose of conveying the water to the lower storage reservoir during turbine operation and as water intake during pump operation (Figure 2).

Jan 1, 2007

By Hassell E. Hunter

The Wyoming Mineral-Conoco Crownpoint Project represents the first time that big hole drilling has been exclusively used to develop totally a privately financed mine below a depth of 1000 feet. Three shafts, one ten feet in diameter and two six feet in diameter, were successfully drilled to depths of 2243', 2188' and 2188' respectively and cased with hydrostatic designed steel casing. The largest shaft is to be used to handle muck and water from station excavation and enlargement of the other two shafts. A reverse circulation system with potassium chloride base mud was used for drilling. The mud was cleaned by settling in steel lined tanks with assistance by cyclone type separators. Deviation was monitored by gyroscopic surveying at 30 foot intervals and did not exceed 16 inches off plumb. Casing was designed to withstand hydrostatic pressures with a 1.5 safety factor to the large shaft and 1.25 safety factor for the smaller shafts. All casing welds were x-ray tested prior to lowering the casing in the hole. Cementing the annular space completed the operation. The total time to mobilize, drill and move off the three shafts was 363 days. The drilling operation was completed ahead of schedule and under budget.

Jan 1, 1983

By A. Sobhy

Froth flotation is a widely used, cost effective coal cleaning process. However, its high process efficiency is limited to a narrow particle size range between approximately 50 to 600 µm for coal and 10 to 100 µm for minerals. Beyond this range, the efficiency of froth flotation decreases sharply, especially for difficult-to-float coal fines of weak hydrophobicity (e.g., oxidized coal). This study was aimed at enhancing recovery of an Illinois fine coal sample using a flotation column featuring a hydrodynamic cavitation nanobubble generator. Nanobubbles that are mostly smaller than 1 µm can be formed selectively on hydrophobic coal particles from dissolved air in fine coal slurry. Results indicate that combustible recovery of a -150 µm coal was increased by 5-50% for different size fractions in presence of nanobubbles, depending on process operating conditions. Other major advantages of the nanobubble flotation process include lower collector dosage and air consumption since nanobubbles are produced from air naturally dissolved in water and they act as a secondary collector on particle surfaces, thereby resulting in considerably lower operating costs. Key words: Cavitation; coal; froth flotation; nanobubble.

Feb 27, 2013

By J. Olsson

Introduction Stainless steel has by tradition been a common construction material for hydrometallurgy processes and the most common grades can be found amongst the ASTM 300-series, i.e. austenitic grades of type 304L, 316L and 317L. However, there are a number of new grades available today, which imply more cost effective solutions for those designing plants where good resistance to acids, containing the desired metal ions, often contaminated with chlorides and other halides, is the key issue. There are austenitic-ferritic or duplex grades having the same or even better corrosion resistance than the austenitic grades and approximately twice the strength, which enables design in thinner gauges, which in turn implies less weight and less cost. They have also excellent engineering properties, enabling fabrication of process equipment, machinery and different types of tanks. On top of that, they contain less nickel and molybdenum than their austenitic counterparts, which implies not only lower cost for alloying elements, but also a more stable price when considering the price fluctuations for these alloying elements during the last years. This paper describes briefly the family of duplex stainless steel and it presents a number of relevant corrosion tests where duplex grades have been compared with austenitic grades. The results have in several cases been verified by in-plant exposures in zinc and copper production plants. It also describes applications and experience of duplex grades within a variety of hydrometallurgy plants. Installations of highly alloyed austenitic grades will be described as well. The corrosion tests and service experience reported cover hydrometallurgical processes based on sulphuric acid.

Jan 1, 2007

By H. A. Oliveira, A. Azevedo

Physical and chemical characterization and solid/liquid separation of turbid waters from a river affected by an iron tailing rupture disaster (Gualaxo do Norte River, Brazil) were studied at bench scale. Parameters such as turbidity, pH, surface tension, electrical conductivity, total suspended solids (TSS), particle size distribution (micro- and nanoparticles), and zeta potential were analyzed from samples collected at three different river depths. The results in all samples showed the presence of micro- and nanoparticles, ranging in diameters from 100 nm to 200 μm. Best results for flocculation and settling were obtained at pH 7.5, through an innovative combination of eco-friendly reagents: (i) ferric hydroxide precipitates (10 mg L−1 Fe3+) to sweep (enmesh) the dispersed solids and (ii) gelatinized starch (5 mg L−1 ) to form large flocs. The results showed removals between 90 and 100% of total suspended solids (micro- and nanoparticles), resulting in clear water with residual turbidity < 7 NTU. It is believed that this innovative alternative has a high potential for flocculating and treating the turbid water at Gualaxo do Norte River, assisting the water treatment stations.

By J. R. P. Aguirre

Minerales Monclova, S.A. de C.V. (MIMOSA) is owned by Grupo Acerero Del Norte (GAN). This company has 4 underground coal mines and 1 open pit to feed it?s steelmaking facilities located in the city of Monclova in the North of México in the state of Coahuila. The current underground mines are Mine 3, 5, 6 and 7 and the future projects are Mines 8 and 9. In the last years Mines 2 and 4 have been closed because they finished their coal resources. The remaining mines have bigger production and developments requirements in order to accomplish the goals of the company. The mines have been working in deeper and gassier areas. These conditions have required improvements in the ventilation design and methane control systems for all the mines. In some cases the ventilation of some of the MIMOSA?S mines has been increased 80%, and besides this, an intensive methane drainage program has been applied using horizontal in-seam boreholes and gob wells. The short-term ventilation plan includes the construction of 3 new vertical shafts with 5 and 6 meters diameter for Mines 5, 6 and 7 and the purchasing of bigger new main and backup fans for each one of these mines. One of these vertical shafts and the purchasing of the first 2 fans is already in process. This paper will explain the evolution and results of the ventilation and methane drainage systems in MIMOSA and the ventilation planning for the future years.

Jan 1, 2009

By A. J. Martin, M. J. Peoples, D. J. Adams, A. Opara

"The weathering of coal mine waste rock releases iron, calcium, sulfate and associated trace elements like selenium (Se). Nitrogen species are also found in association with coal-mining drainages mainly due to the leaching of residual blasting compounds. Elevated concentrations of Se are a ubiquitous occurrence in coal-mining environments in British Columbia. A major concern with waterborne Se in British Columbia is the potential for its bioaccumulation in aquatic food chains.Treatment to remove Se from coal-mining waste waters has proven to be challenging for conventional water-treatment technologies. Compounding this challenge, many streams are characterized by high flows and low selenium concentrations. Conventional membrane and ion exchange treatments produce concentrated brine streams that are difficult to treat or require disposal. Conventional biotreatment systems use excess nutrients to provide the required electrons to compensate for inefficient and variable electron availability, as well as to adjust reactor chemistry.This paper's electro-biochemical reactor (EBR) technology provides a controllable and consistent supply of useable electrons to the microbes directly at a low voltage potential (1-3 V) and low current. In this manner, the EBR technology overcomes the shortcomings found in conventional systems, as it reduces the required nutrient addition and provides a more controllable, efficient, economical and robust biotreatment system. Additionally, the EBR process does not produce excess solids or biomass; therefore, solids management post-treatment is not required.Laboratory EBR bench-scale and on-site pilot-scale systems were used to treat five British Columbia coal-mine waste waters; influent Se concentrations ranged from 35 µg/L to 531 µg/L. Se treatment targets for the tested waters ranged from 5 to 10 µg/L. Mean Se concentrations in EBR effluents ranged from 0.5 µg/L to 1.4 µg/L, while reducing sulfate concentrations. The test data demonstrate that the EBR technology is an effective Se removal option for British Columbia’s coal-mining waste waters.IntroductionSelenium in Mining. Selenium (Se) is a naturally occurring trace element, which is an essential nutrient in small amounts (Thompson and Robinson, 1980; Brown and Arthur, 2001). However, it is also toxic to aquatic life, birds, and humans at very low concentrations. A major concern with waterborne Se is the potential for its bioaccumulation in aquatic food chains, resulting in acute and/or chronic toxicity to fish, water birds and amphibians (Besser et al., 1996; Conley et al., 2009)."

Jan 1, 2015

By Verya Nasri, Scott Thorburn

The City of Toronto and the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) have conducted an Individual Environmental Assessment (EA) for a 6.2 km, 4-station underground extension of the Spadina Subway from Downsview Station to Steeles Avenue. This Environmental Assessment Study was performed in three phases including routes and general station locations, alignments and station concepts and detailed assessment of the effects of the undertaking. URS Canada Inc. has led the consultant team for this Study. The anticipated total duration of the project is approximately 6 years and its estimated total cost is about $1.4 billion. This paper presents the planning process of the project, the environmental and engineering challenges, and the measures taken to address them.

Jan 1, 2007

By Anna Sukhanova, Svetlana Babaeva, Sergey Andreev, Victor Beltenev

"The Zenith-Victoria /1/ and Jubileynoye /2/ hydrothermal fields have symmetrical structural position on the Mid Atlantic Ridge (Fig. 1). In order to compare the evolution of hydrothermal systems, we conducted mineralogical and geochemical studies of SMS from both sites.Radiochemical and geochemical investigations of massive sulfides of the Zenith-Victoria field distinguishes three major stages of evolution: initial, interim and final represented by Fe-S, Cu-Fe and Zn-Fe types of SMS respectively /3/. In this talk, we describe the results of geochemical analysis of massive sulfides from the Zenith-Victoria field. Geochemical varieties of SMS are considered to be indicators of the evolutionary stages of the hydrothermal system."

Sep 1, 2014

By H. A. Oliveira, A. Azevedo

Physical and chemical characterization and solid/liquid separation of turbid waters from a river affected by an iron tailing rupture disaster (Gualaxo do Norte River, Brazil) were studied at bench scale. Parameters such as turbidity, pH, surface tension, electrical conductivity, total suspended solids (TSS), particle size distribution (micro- and nanoparticles), and zeta potential were analyzed from samples collected at three different river depths. The results in all samples showed the presence of micro- and nanoparticles, ranging in diameters from 100 nm to 200 μm. Best results for flocculation and settling were obtained at pH 7.5, through an innovative combination of eco-friendly reagents: (i) ferric hydroxide precipitates (10 mg L−1 Fe3+) to sweep (enmesh) the dispersed solids and (ii) gelatinized starch (5 mg L−1 ) to form large flocs. The results showed removals between 90 and 100% of total suspended solids (micro- and nanoparticles), resulting in clear water with residual turbidity < 7 NTU. It is believed that this innovative alternative has a high potential for flocculating and treating the turbid water at Gualaxo do Norte River, assisting the water treatment stations.

By Philip Morey

Large scale surface coal mining will be required to fill future energy demand in the United States. In realization of this long-term commitment to coal resources, the U.S. Energy Re-search and Development Administration sponsored a study to determine the costs and problems of large-scale surface coal mining. As a result of this study a series of computer models were developed that can be used by government and industry to: 1) facilitate mine design and equipment selection, 2) provide detailed analyses of mining and processing costs. Two types of models were developed: detailed simulation models, which provide detailed information on mining systems and equipment to assist in mine design and equipment selection1 and broad models, which provide a first-order evaluation of deposits and new ventures for an entire mining complex. The complete model series permits examination of surface coal mining under a variety of terrain conditions. Six different mining methods were analyzed and documented during the overall project: 1) Area stripping with draglines, 2) Area stripping with draglines, extended bench, 3) Contour stripping with draglines, 4) Area stripping with shovels (loaders) and trucks, 5) Mountain top removal with shovels (loaders) and trucks, 6) Multiple dipping seam mining with shovels (loaders) and trucks. Each major operation in the coal mining pro-cess is represented in these models so that the best methods and equipment may be selected and 50 that the impact of such selection will be reflected in estimates of capital investment, operating costs, and coal price. Individual models allow the user to separately analyze overburden removal, overburden drilling and blasting, coal drilling and blasting, coal loading and hauling, coal preparation and handling, land reclamation, and premining, facilities, and administrative expenses. Because it is impossible to cover all the models in this paper, only the detailed simulation models representative of the technique "area stripping with draglines," are described. The Fort Union Strippable Coal Resource Region, one of eight test cases, is used as an example to describe the models.

Jan 1, 1978

By M. Javier

This concept paper is presented in the hope of raising the awareness of mankind on the necessity for its peaceful coexistence with nature. It is a food for thought. It takes compromise and sacrifice of people, who will have to learn to curb their greed and move toward a more organic form of prosperity. A nature-friendly sustainability is first step toward the protection of nature that is critical to the mutual survival of mankind and nature. People need the resources from the finite earth to survive and nature needs the prevention of human destruction in order to continue to regenerate and provide. The contemporary notion of sustainability is self-serving. It serves the interest of industry by camouflaging itself to look like nature?s protector. The ?sustainability? concept presented in this paper aims to extend the longevity of the utilization of the limited natural resources for many generations to come. It is an important, responsible first step in creating a healthy sustainability concept that, when implemented, extends the longevity of mankind by the most efficient use of the finite resources on this limited Planet Earth, all the while taking into consideration the increase in anthropogenic activities due to exponential human population growth. This new definition of ?sustainability? has completely different characteristics than its contemporary versions. Nature has its own destiny, rules and principles. Being a part of nature, human society depends on it for survival and must play by its rules and never the other way round as in its initial pretensions. Society should not try to humanize nature, but rather to respect the rule of the nature in a peaceful way of co-existence. When implemented, this new concept of sustainability aims to affect the designs of engineered structures and revolutionize the recovery methods and processing of natural resources, such as mineral resources in the most efficient manner. Finally, this paper intends to stimulate critical thinking and initiate serious discussions aiming at producing a general consensus for the best definition for human society to not only enrich, but to extend its existence. Thus, the spirit of this new definition is pro future generations and environment. KEYWORDS: Sustainability Definition, Nature, Geomímic, Deproduction.

Feb 27, 2013

By B. C. Vargas

The Toulon tunnel project is a key component of the Highway corridor on the French Riviera between Marseille and Nice and is a fundamental transportation infrastructure for the region. The first design studies started in the 1960?s. The tunnel project is made of 2 separate tunnels: South and North tunnel. The North tunnel was built between 1992 and 2002 after 10 years of difficult construction (for example, on March 15th, 1996, a collapse of the tunnel in the ?Marchand Area? generated a sink hole in the city Center, causing 20 months delay). The South tunnel alignment runs parallel to the North tunnel at the same depth below Toulon historical downtown (20 to 40m depth with some areas with less than 10m of cover). The Risk management program was studied to be a State of the Art program in urban tunneling construction. The Hydro Geological Context The whole project area is covered with backfills and colluviums of 1 to 4m thick. The Schist, marls and sandstones, randomly distributed along the alignment below the first layer have different characteristics. While the Schist are pretty compact, the marls are fractured. The other layers have very different characteristics, and many faults are located along the alignment, especially in the limestones. The Breccia are heavily decompressed and deformable, as well as the other soils located in the Marchand Area. This 80m long area is where the settlements need to be controlled with an extensive monitoring program. The complete Geological profile is presented in Figure 1. [ ]

Jan 1, 2012

By Patrick J. Doig

The contract for the construction of the Inline Pump Station for the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District involves the sinking of three shafts and the excavation of a pump chamber. The shafts are being sunk to a depth of 104 meters and pass through 52m of sediments before encountering dolomitic bedrock. The pump chamber is constructed in dolomite. The sediments are alluvial, estuarine and lacustrine in origin, with some ice margin deposits. They comprise loosely consolidated fine to coarse grained sand, silts, clays and gravels, and they are heavily saturated with a water content often above 60%. The water table is at a depth of 3m. The dolomite is silurian, generally dense, with some clay-filled vugs and shale partings. Until 1983, underground construction in the Milwaukee area had been limited to depths of 26m in the sediments and 20m in the dolomites. Water control methods had included caissons, compressed air, extensive internal and external dewatering, and grouting. Flows of 20 liters per second were commonplace with as much as 80 liters per second being encountered in the rock. However, in 1984 work was commenced on the deep sections of the Milwaukee sewerage scheme with the letting of three major contracts including the Inline Pump Station. With excavation taking place at greater depths, it become obvious that previous methods of water control would be inappropriate. To protect against major inrushes of high pressure water in the rock, an extensive program of pre-grouting from the surface was specified. Water control in the sediments was left to the discretion of the contractor and in each case freezing was choosen. This paper describes in detail the grouting and freezing procedures.

Jan 1, 1985

By Eduardo Pimenta de Melo, Rambabu Pothina, Rajive Ganguli

Sensors are everywhere in the mining industry, with sensor information being used to monitor and operate processes. Therefore, when sensor information is wrong, economic losses can occur. Unfortunately, sensor errors are usually not detected till they become large. This is problematic as most calibrate their sensors no more than once a year (Beamex, n.d.). Using principles of data mining, where all relevant information is tapped to glean hidden information, Pothina [8] designed an algorithm to detect errors in temperature sensors in gold stripping circuit in Pogo mine, Alaska. This paper continued his work by analyzing the behavior of the algorithm on baseline data and testing the algorithm in new data and under more rigorous conditions. It also made a change to the algorithm. The modified algorithm performed very well in the new data. It also worked well under the new error conditions. Three types of errors were seeded, a fixed additive error (+ 2%), a fixed subtractive error (− 2%), and a noisy, normally distributed error, with a mean value of + 2%. Artificially seeded errors were detected within about 20 gold stripping cycles. Inherent bias in operation impacted algorithm performance by increasing the number of cycles needed to detect errors. This paper reinforced Pothina’s [8] conclusion that when data mining approach is used, sensor errors can be detected even when they are pretty low. Significant economic losses can thus be minimized.

By Mahiyar Nasarwanji, Jonathan K. Hrica, Jonisha P. Pollard, Lydia M. Kocher, Brianna M. Eiter

Within the metal/nonmetal mining sector, fall-related incidents account for a large proportion of fatal and non-fatal injuries. However, the events and contributing factors leading up to these incidents have not been fully investigated. To help provide a clearer picture of these factors, an analysis of imminent danger orders issued by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) between 2010 and 2017 at both surface and underground metal/nonmetal mine sites revealed that most orders are associated with fall risks. Of these cases, 84% involved the workers not using fall protection, fall protection not being provided, or the improper use of fall protection. Fall risks for workers most frequently occurred when standing on mobile equipment, performing maintenance and repairs on plant equipment, or working near highwalls. In most cases, a single, basic, corrective action (e.g., using fall protection) would have allowed workers to perform the task safely. Overall, these findings suggest that a systematic approach is needed to identify, eliminate, and prevent imminent danger situations. Furthermore, to protect mineworkers from falls from height, frequently performed tasks requiring fall protection should be redesigned to eliminate the reliance on personal fall protection.

By T. Bajpayee, J. Ellenberger

Microseismic monitoring and evaluation is one aspect of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) research program. Roof falls are often preceded by a period of elevated microseismic activity, but not all periods of elevated activity result in a roof fall, nor do all roof falls occur after some amount of elevated activity. The objective of this study is to review periods of elevated microseismic activity and determine whether fracture activity rate can be used to anticipate the initiation of roof falls. The study was carried out at an underground limestone mine where major roof falls are associated with excessive horizontal stress. The progression of roof falls was detected by the microseismic signature produced by the rock falling from the mine roof onto the mine floor, which is termed a roof fall impact event. A total of nine elevated fracture activity periods that resulted in seven major roof falls were examined. It was observed that elevated fracture activity preceded the initial roof fall impact event in three out of four major roof falls. The initial impact event was not identified for the remaining three roof falls. Fracture event rates were analyzed and a roof fall alarm trigger of five fracture events in a ten minute time period was established for this test case. The fall alarm trigger was tested against six of the elevated activity periods. Four roof falls occurred in the six periods of elevated activity, and two would have triggered the alarm before the roof fall occurred, while two false alarms were generated. The results show that limited success would have been achieved by the microseismic system as a roof fall alarm trigger. However, the trigger would have been successful at warning of the onset of elevated activity, allowing mine employees to respond appropriately. The study highlighted some issues with implementing such a system in an operating mine, including the need for real time identification of fracture related microseismic signals among mining induced signals, and accurate location and identification of fracture clustering.

Jan 1, 2007

By A. Noble

The design of separation circuits can be a complex, labor-intensive and costly process. While the engineer?s experience along with extensive data sets and simulation are crucial tools for determining the final solution, a more fundamental approach is suitable to compare preliminary options and reduce the number of potential alternatives. In light of this need, the authors have developed the Circuit Analysis Reduction Tool (CART?). This software package relies on the fundamental principles of linear circuit analysis; however, the solution methodology has been streamlined to automatically incorporate stream splitting and unique separation performance for each unit. The resulting tool allows preliminary analysis of circuit designs without the need of detailed feed characterization. In addition to the basic analytical approach, this paper supports the veracity of the methodology with several simulated examples for various separation models.

Feb 27, 2013

By H. Tudeshki, A. Tayebi

"The large extent of global production and consumption of aggregates from quarries, grabs one´s attention and makes its substantial and essential standpoint in the world today pretty clear. A great amount of aggregates is utilized in civil engineering applications such as road construction, railway industry, concrete production, etc. Considering this fact that igneous rocks display a higher strength and abrasion resistance, this type of rock is preferred in the field of civil engineering. For all these applications, rock quality assurance is a key factor and certainly unavoidable, and it has great influence on the quality of constructions in civil engineering. One of the major problems encountered by both the producers and users of igneous rock is the fact that, with the passage of time, some specific rocks lose their strength, up to a complete loss of structure or in other words, their disintegration and degradation. In the last decades, different methods and procedures such as Glycol test, methylene blue dye test, as well as the Los Angeles test have been introduced to distinguish these rock properties, and to identify these problems. However, as these methods are time consuming, hard to perform, only to be applied to hand-piece samples, requiring special laboratory equipments, and only possible to be accomplished under laboratory conditions, their application has always been limited to some specific cases, and they are neither recommendable nor advantageous. In addition, these methods provide partially different results for the same rock. To address this widespread quality management problem of the quarry industry, a relatively quick, easy and user-friendly approach is necessary. It calls for a systematic solution with a device that can simply be used day to day in a mine for quality control of the quarry´s daily production. This scientific research is concentrated on developing a systematic method for early recognition and diagnosis of rock quality, in order to control and manage the quality of the quarry production in advance. This method was developed, based on the procedure of the magnetic susceptibility measurement. The obtained values can lead to valuable information regarding the quality of the rock and allows the quality control process to be accomplished and performed at the borehole location. This approach has been assessed through extensive field and laboratory studies. A detailed and comprehensive discussion will be made on the results of the experiments. The advantages and impacts of the application of this method, on increasing the reserves and environmental protection are also discussed."

Jan 1, 2011

By J. Bertisen, G. Davis

Previous analyses of small samples of mining projects have found that feasibility studies tend to well under-estimate the actual capital costs of the project. Our review of 63 mining and smelting projects completed over 4 decades confirms that as-built capital costs are, on average, 25% higher than as estimated at the bankable feasibility study stage. There appears to be little attenuation over time of this bias in capital cost estimation, at first appearing to reflect an absence of learning on the part of the consulting engineer. We instead argue that this persistence of bias is intentional, driven by a scarcity of project financing and the need to inflate the project economics in a bid to secure financing. Around this intentional bias is a considerable amount of scatter. Roughly half of all projects’ as-built capita costs fall outside of the expected ±15% of the feasibility study capital cost estimate, even after allowing for intentional estimation bias. Cost overruns of 100% or more happen in roughly 1 out of 13 projects. The data reveal that a shifted lognormal probability distribution should be used when modeling mining project capital costs in a Monte Carlo analysis.

Jan 1, 2007