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By G. H. Lind

New South Wales has a successful history of pillar extraction stretching back more than 60 years. Various methods of pillar extraction ranging from the rib pillar methods (such as the Wongawilli system) to the more recent pillar stripping techniques (similar to those used in the USA) are discussed in this paper. These discussions are based on the experiences of the author stemming from a recent research tour of seven underground pillar extraction operations in New South Wales as part of the Coaltech 2020 collaborative research initiative. Some operational issues of each site visited are presented before some general comments pertaining to the overall success of pillar extraction in New South Wales are discussed. Generally pillar extraction in New South Wales is on the decline in favour of longwalling. However, the pillar extraction that is conducted is done so along specific guidelines to ensure their success, and these are also discussed.

Jan 1, 2002

By K A. Bunker, A D. Campbell, E Ah Mu, A R. Penney

The Ernest Henry mine is a transverse sublevel cave (SLC), which is relatively unique due to the 45 degree inclination of the orebody. To economically recover ore, each sublevel is horizontally offset from the previous level by around 25 m, depending on the orebody geometry. Mine development, slotting and initial production within this zone occurs in a high stress abutment that increases in magnitude at depth. These areas are seismically active and close to the hanging wall where cave propagation is yet to initiate. High stress conditions and the close proximity to the cave seismogenic zone results in challenging geotechnical conditions in the step out zone of each level and requires management of hazards including stress driven rockfalls, rock bursts and pillar failure.This paper outlines how these hazards were forecast using numerical modelling and geotechnical monitoring. Risk management techniques included dynamic ground support design, development of a new mine layout and extraction sequence as well as delayed re-entry into seismically active areas. Ongoing monitoring, instrumentation measurements and field observations were used to track the effectiveness of the controls.Future production levels are forecast to experience increasing stress and seismicity, which will increase demand on excavations and installed ground support. Ensuring the techniques and controls for monitoring, measuring and mitigating stress and seismic hazards are enforced is essential for continued safe production.CITATION:Campbell, A D, Bunker, K A, Ah Mu, E and Penney, A R, 2016. Managing stress and seismicity in an inclined sublevel cave, in Proceedings Seventh International Conference and Exhibition on Mass Mining (MassMin 2016), pp 319–328 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2016

By John S. Brown

The northeastern United States embraces that area of the Appalachian Mountains, and adjacent territory, beginning on the south at the Potomac River. It thus extends from the flat-lying Paleozoic terrane of the Appalachian plateau on the west, across the folded Paleozoics of the Great Valley and adjacent ridges (Paleozoic and Precambrian), over the Piedmont and New England metamorphic complex (mixed Paleozoic and igenous rocks), broken by the great Triassic rift remnants, onto the subdued coastal plain of Cretaceous and Tertiary sediments. Although not noted as a metal mining region, the area does contain numerous substantial and several outstanding mines, chiefly of the more prosaic metals, particularly iron, zinc, and copper, as well as many minor occurrences of these and a few additional items. These deposits occur to some extent in every subdivision of the area. The region to date (1966) has produced almost 500,000,000 tons of medium to lowgrade iron ore, especially magnetite, including ilmenitic magnetite; 50,000,000 tons of highgrade zinc ore; and 5,000,000 tons of lowgrade copper. In the past, it has yielded small amounts of chromite and nickel, and at present is a large producer of titanium. Precious metals are conspicuously absent, and so also are the Tertiary or Mesozoic igneous phenomena so commonly associated with mines of the West. Hence, a survey of the extensive mineralization · of this region should be instructive

Jan 1, 1968

Evaluation of Grinding Medium Wear in Stirred Mills The standard fine grinding machines in the minerals industry are stirred mills whose performance largely depends on the competency of the grinding medium. Medium wear in stirred mills is one of the key parameters for medium selection. A wear evaluation methodology is developed and applied in this paper to measure the wear rate of river sand using a laboratory batch stirred mill. The procedure is demonstrated by testing the sand medium in a 0.55 kW batch stirred media detritor (SMD). The sand wear rate determined in the laboratory batch mill is successfully scaled up to that determined on a full-scale Metso 355 kW SMD mill.

Sep 13, 2010

By S. K. Bradford

(Pittsburg Meeting, March, 1910.) FOR years past I have traveled in quest of promising mining-properties, over almost impassable mountain-trails to remote places in the mining-regions, usually, many miles from an assay-office. If, upon examination, the formation and the ore-deposit appeared favorable, a quick determination of the value of my samples was necessary, in order that I might take intelligent action with reference to the acquisition of the property. A journey with my samples to civilized regions often meant weeks of delay, and perhaps loss of opportunity. How many, under similar circumstances, have returned with their assay-results from such a journey, only to find that some audacious speculator had " optioned" the property ! True, a first payment could have been made and the chances taken on the results; but experience has taught that rich-looking ore is not of necessity valuable. Personally, I would not hazard a ten-dollar bill on any property without first determining by assay the value of the ore. To carry the usual complete assay-paraphernalia over such mountain-trails was impracticable by reason of the loss of time involved, the great expense of transportation (charged according to weight), and the fact that a few such trips would almost certainly wreck the outfit. For these reasons I began a process of elimination and substitution which finally enabled me to carry, in an ordinary 26-in. valise, sufficient apparatus and supplies for, say, 100 assays of adequate commercial accuracy. My final outfit was as follows: APPARATUS. Small hammer; steel mortar (2.5 in. wide, 3 in. high, with stand sawed off flat, so that it can be used as an anvil and for

Jan 1, 1911

By Cosmin Carpinisan, Erich J. Hofmann, Stephen J. Hall

"Since presenting a technical paper regarding their unique capabilities in Forged Steel Mill Gearing at the SAG-2006 Conference, Australian heavy engineering company Hofmann Engineering has pioneered a number of new manufacturing processes and design concepts for components of large comminution equipment. These include: 1. Novel design improvements for HPGR Rolls with forged steel tyres and a unique patented tungsten carbide insert designed to improve wear life, enhance autogenous layer build-up, and to reduce breakage & chipping under load. 2. Development of forged fabricated Mill Heads using rolled & welded high-tensile steel plate as alternatives to cast conical mill heads. 3. Insitu Girth Gear measurements for profile and wear via portable 6-axis CMM. 4. Gear and Pinion designs to AGMA-6114 for SAG mills of 38’-40’ diameter to 24MW and for Ball Mills of 26’ diameter to 18MW. The paper presents case studies from the Australian heavy manufacturing facilities of Hofmann Engineering, combined with news of their new gear manufacturing and gearbox overhaul facility in Canada."

Jan 1, 2012

By Oliver Bowles

The National Granite Commission at its annual meeting in Norfolk, Va., in January, 1930, passed a resolution requesting the Bureau of Mines to conduct an economic study of the granite industry. In with this request a preliminary review has been made of trends in the production and uses of block granite.. Some unfavorable conditions were thus brought to light, and certain suggestions regarding a more orderly and consistent growth in the industry are herein discussed. The results of the study are, presented in this report for the earnest consideration of. the industry, and comments are invited, not only on this report but as to future work that might be accomplished by the Bureau of Mines. The authors desire to acknowledge many helpful suggestions and comments from Paul M. Tyler of the Bureau of Mines and from Harris F. Sherman, secretary of the National Building Granite Quarries Association. Miss A. T. Coons of the Bureau of Mines rendered valuable assistance through her wide knowledge of granite statistics. The block granite industry has shown little expansion during recent years. While the value of the annual production has grown from about $14,000,000 in 1904 to nearly $25,000,000 in 1928, the increment in value is caused mainly by mounting prices rather than by increased production. Even granite for memorials shows a very small advance in production volume, although the value has increased from about $3,500,060 in 1904 to more than $11,000,000 in 1928, which is the most consistent growth of any branch of the industry. The value of building granite has fallen for a number of years much below the figure for 1904, and in 1928 was very little in advance of the value attained 24 years previously. The use of granite paving blocks and rubble has shown a gradual decline.

Jan 1, 1931

By M. A. Amarante

Beneficiation studies were conducted on a Portuguese feldspar ore, in order to obtain final products capable of being used in the ceramic industry. A simple scrubbing operation is enough to break the lumps in the feed. The ore deposit contains ca 35 x 106tonnesfrom which, by screening, three main products could be obtained. This paper focuses on the beneficiation of the 500/74 µm fraction, which constitutes about 27% of the ore, assaying 9.42% Al2O3,equivalent to approximately ca 46% feldspar, with a mean iron content of 0.29% iron oxides. Magnetic separation and froth flotation testwork was carried out, in order to decrease the iron contamination and increase the feldspar content. Magnetic separation alone decreased the iron content of the feed to values between 0.04 and 0.08% iron oxides with an average yield greater than 90%. Flotation with HF, provided a feldspar recovery of 45?46% with a concentrate assaying 17.6% Al2O3. The use of H2SO4, gave a recovery of 35?36% of feldspar concentrate, assaying 16.1% Al2O3. However, economic and environmental advantages of using sulphuric acid may compensate for the lower mass recovery. The iron content of0.12% iron oxides in these concentrates, could be reduced to 0.04?0.05%, by further magnetic separation.

Jan 1, 1997

By Richard D. Lang

Introduction Argyle is located in the Kimberley region in northwest Australia (Fig. 1). It is a significant diamond discovery by world standards and is the first major diamond find in Australia. The deposit consists of a pipe and associated alluvial deposits. Before the 1970s, diamonds were known to exist only sporadically in Australia. They have been found occasionally in association with gold deposits in Western Australia. There is a small deposit near Copeton in New South Wales. Some alluvial occurrences have also been found in Victoria, South Australia, and New South Wales. The first indicator minerals in the Kimberley region of Western Australia were discovered in January 1973. Production from the alluvial deposits at Argyle began in 1983. A $430-million construction program to develop a mine and treatment plant capable of producing 25 million carats per year was completed in December (1 carat = 0.2 grams). Ownership and management Participants in the project are known as the Argyle Diamond Mines Joint Venture. The group consists of CRA Ltd., 56.8%; Ashton Mining Ltd., 38.2%; and the Western Australian Diamond Trust (formerly Northern Mining Corp.), 5%. The project is managed by Argyle Diamond Mines Pty. Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of CRA. Marketing is undertaken separately by the Western Australian Diamond Trust and by Argyle Diamond Sales Ltd. (for CRA and Ashton Mining groups). History Ownership of the Exploration Joint Venture has changed over the last 12 years as various parties changed their shareholdings. The original Kalumburu Joint Venture was formed in 1972 with five participants, each holding a 20% interest. By 1983, a number of ownership changes had occurred. The end result is that two original participants have sold out. CRA now holds a 56.8% share and the Ashton Mining Group holds 38.2%. CRA also assumed project management in January 1977. Table 1 demonstrates the long lead times involved in developing a project.

Jan 1, 1986

By M. Hooman, W. M. Marx, R. C. W. Webber-Youngman

This paper discusses a study that investigated different underground bulk air heat exchanger (>100 m3/s) design criteria. A literature review found that no single document exists covering all design criteria for different heat exchangers, and therefore the need was identified to generate a guideline with decision analyser steps to arrive at a technical specification. The study investigated the factors influencing heat exchanger designs (spray chambers, towers, and indirect-contact heat exchangers) and the technical requirements for each. The decision analysers can be used to generate optimized, user-friendly fit-for-purpose designs for bulk air heat exchangers (air cooler and heat rejection). The study was tested against a constructed air cooler and heat rejection unit at a copper mine1. It was concluded that the decision analysers were used successfully. This tool (decision analysers) can be used by engineers for the efficient and cost-effectively design of heat exchangers.

Jan 1, 2015

By M. Felsenthal

Engineers are frequently faced with the problem of having to predict oil recovery from a solution gas drive reservoir in the early life of a field. This is often the time when actual laboratory or field-derived gas-oil permeability (kg/k0) data are not yet available. Although excellent collections of k0/k0 data for various types of rocks may be found in the literature,1,2,3 a need exists for a more detailed correlation of k0/k0 data with core properties such as porosity, permeability, clay content or pore-size distribution. It is the purpose of this article to present this type of correlation for sandstone material. The correlation is based on laboratory tests performed on over 300 core samples from 19 reservoirs in the United States and Canada. EXPERIMENTAL Cores were analyzed by routine procedures, using samples of conventional size (7/8-in. diameter, 7/8-in long) cut parallel to the bedding planes. Air permeability was measured at 1.67 atm mean pressure in a Hassler-type apparatus. Porosity was determined with the aid of a Ruska bulk volume meter and a Boyle's Law rock volume meter, An evaporation method' was used to evaluate irreducible water saturations. Core samples were saturated with 25,000 ppm NaCl brine. The brine was reduced to the irreducible saturation, and the remainder of the pore space was filled with kerosene. This was followed by multiphase flow tests using the so-called "dispersed feed" technique.5 n this technique, gas and oil (kerosene and kerosene-saturated air) were dispersed with the aid of a porous Alun-durn feed head, the face of which contained a waffle-shaped system of Lucite-lined grooves. Oil entered the back side of the feed head and emerged at the raised areas of the front face. Gas was introduced directly into the system of grooves at the front face. The gas-oil mixture then entered the test core which was kept in capillary contact with the feed head. Permeabilities were determined from rate and pressure measurements and saturations from weights. All determinations were performed at equilibrium or steady-state conditions. Pore-size distributions were determined on selected samples by a mercury injection technique.6 GENERAL CORRELATIVE TRENDS When examining data from a given reservoir, it was noted that k0/k0 vs saturation curves became generally less steep as specific air permeability increased, a development that has a favorable effect on oil displacement efficiency by solution gas drive. This trend has also been reported by others in the literature.' An effect of porosity on k0/k0 data was also noted. This effect was not generally discernible in a study of relative permeability data for a given reservoir but became apparent when data for sandstone reservoirs of similar lithology but differing average porosity were compared. For instance, in a comparison of argillaceous and/or calcareous sandstones from 11 reservoirs ranging in average porosities from 14 to 28 per cent, a definite trend was noted, indicating that for a given permeability k0/k0 curves became less favorable (i.e., steeper) as porosity increased. A similar trend was observed for a group of comparatively clean sandstones from five reservoirs ranging in average porosities from 15 to 21 per cent. For a given permeability and porosity, comparatively clean sandstones gave more favorable k0/k0 curves than argillaceous and/or calcareous sandstone or chert reservoirs. The laboratory studies also showed that least favorable k0/k0 curves were exhibited by shaly sandstone, conglomerate, and sandstone containing carbon inclusions. Table 1 lists the various source reservoirs classified by lithology types. To facilitate a correlation of k0/k0 data with core characteristcis, it was found expedient to work with

The objectives of this paper are to introduce the International Code of Practice for Risk Management of Tunnel Works and to illustrate to the participants of the 13th Australian Tunnelling Conference 2008 how the insurance industry would like to see the future of tunnelling insurance. Tunnel construction projects have suffered large losses over the years as can be shown from various loss examples and a list of major losses over the last ten to 15 years. Since the consequences of insufficient risk control had to be borne by insurers, these losses have heightened the need for improved and adequate risk management measures so that insurance cover can also in future be provided for this hazardous industry sector. Observations are made as regards to the prevailing trends in the tunnelling industry, which contribute to the increase in risk and have adverse consequences for the insurance industry. To find a solution to this dilemma various options are examined with the suggestion of a Joint Code of Practice for Tunnel Works being agreed by all stakeholders, which would become essential to secure future insurance protection for such project work. The British Tunnelling Society has, in cooperation with the Association of British Insurers, developed such a code, which the International Tunnelling Insurance Group has now adopted for global application in international markets. The content and concept of this code is explained to establish a framework of understanding and applied risk management principles for tunnel works. This initiative also has the support of the International Tunnelling Association and the International Association of Engineering Insurers. The international application of this new code is demonstrated with a few examples, which also includes Australian projects. It is the aim that this code forms in future part of the insurance coverage for tunnelling works in order to put this risk segment on a more sustainable basis. For that reason the insurance industry is seeking the support of all stakeholders of tunnelling construction projects.

Jan 1, 2008

By L. van Dyk

The project was aimed at evaluating the double-header trains implemented at Great Noligwa mine, looking at the changes from the old conventional trains to the new trains, and identifying possible improvements to obtain an even better and more productive tramming system. The methods used to evaluate the double-header trains at the mine included personal observations, time studies, personal interviews, technical research, safety analysis, cost analysis, production analysis, breakdown analysis, break test analysis, comparisons and working closely with engineering department and manufacturers. Issues that were evaluated are the improvements in safety, cost reductions, tramming congestion reductions, better efficiencies, labour optimization, enhanced driver safety and maintenance. Shortcomings of the double-header trains were identified and recommendations made to improve on the shortcomings. Findings of the evaluation study indicated the following: ?Drastic improvement on safety ?Extreme cost reductions ?Reduction in tramming congestions and bottlenecks ?Better tramming efficiencies ?Optimized labour placement ?Enhanced driver safety ?More effective maintenance. Although there is room for improvements, the double-header trains were implemented with great success at Great Noligwa mine. It is currently the preferred tramming methodology at Great Noligwa mine, and is also implemented at other Anglo Gold Ashanti?South Africa shafts. This tramming system has huge potential for growth, not only in Anglo Gold Ashanti, but in all other older mines that experience major tramming problems.

Jan 1, 2008

By D. Komljenovic, E. Lafontaine, J. Paraszczak

Availability of the production equipment used in underground mines has a substantial impact on production costs and, thus, on mine profitability. Appropriate collection of pertinent data and information, as well as use of adequate performance measures and their analyses, can help mine operators identify cost-effective opportunities to improve equipment availability. This paper presents study results aimed at reviewing and analyzing means and measures used to quantify equipment availability and its contributing factors (reliability, maintainability and maintenance support) in several Canadian underground mines. It overviews sources, as well as quality and quantity of relevant data and information, and examines performance measures and their definitions, as applied to surveyed mines. Problems concerning data acquisition and meaningfulness of the performance measures are discussed. The paper concludes with some suggestions and recommendations concerning several aspects of equipment availability assessment. Evidence suggests that the latter may become a more useful tool for mine operators in their efforts to reduce production cost.

Jan 1, 2008

By S. M. Spottiswoode

Much as one hopes to predict whether damaging seismicity might occur somewhere in the next shift, this is not possible at present. Recently, an analysis of seismicity at two mines has shown that a small increase in seismicity occasionally occurs before both large and small events. This analysis is extended here to five mines, with the same results. Earthquake seismologists forecast hazard in terms of the average incidence of earthquakes over the last 50 years, adjusted on an hourly basis according to the possibility of aftershocks of events that have happened. The rate of seismicity in any area remains approximately constant when expressed as seismicity per area mined, or better still, per unit of elastic strain energy released. It is suggested that seismic hazard in mines be estimated using historical seismicity and forward modelling, adjusted according to the possibility of aftershocks. In summary, medium-term forecasting of seismicity is viable; short-term prediction of large events is not.

Jan 1, 2010

One of the biggest challenges for the mining industry is, quite literally, how to the keep the equipment rolling. There is a limited amount of companies that manufacture the 4.2-m- (14-ft-) tall, 5,670-kg (12,500-lb-) tires needed for the haul trucks that are approaching the 362 t (400 st) pay-load class, such as Terex?s MT6300-AC and Caterpillar?s 797F. And, while these might be the most impressive tires, they are not the only ones that are in short supply. The shortage of tires has affected just about every kind of machine, and the demand for those tires has been extremely high for more than five years with no end to the shortage in site. American Tire Corp. (www.americantire.us) is one of the companies working to supply tires to the mining industry. It announced that the demand for its 1.6-m (63-in.) tires that have a zero failure history globally is great and that the company signed contracts worth more than $500 million at MinExpo. A relatively new player in the field of large tires for mining equipment is Titan Tire Corp., (www.titan-intl.com), a subsidiary of Titan International Inc. It shipped its first 1.6 m (63 in.) off-the-

Jan 1, 2008

By T. W. Beck

Drilling into coal mine roof strata to install roof bolts has the potential to release substantial quantities of respirable dust. Due to the proximity of drill holes to the breathing zone of roof bolting personnel, dusts escaping the holes and avoiding capture by the dust collection system pose a potential respiratory health risk. Controls are available to complement the typical dry vacuum collection system and minimize harmful exposures during the initial phase of drilling. This paper examines the use of a bit sleeve in combination with a dust hog-type bit to improve dust extraction during the critical initial phase of drilling. A twisted-body drill bit is also evaluated to determine the quantity of dust liberated by comparison to the dust hog-type bit. Based on these laboratory tests, the bit sleeve may reduce dust emissions by one-half during the initial phase of drilling before the drill bit is fully enclosed by the drill hole. Because collaring is responsible for the largest dust liberations, overall dust emissions can also be substantially reduced. The use of a twisted-body bit has minimal improvement on dust capture compared to the commonly used dust hog-type bit.

Feb 27, 2013

By A C. Chieregati, A Heberle, F L. S P Villanova

Since the publications of Gy’s initial work, many authors have discussed the approaches to estimate the variance of the fundamental sampling error (FSE). Experimental tests suggested by Pitard and François-Bongarçon determine the sampling parameters K and a to calibrate Gy’s formula. The heterogeneity test and the sample tree method are well known and broadly used for many commodities. However, prior to the analysis, the collection of a representative sample is an intriguingly difficult task. The composite for the heterogeneity tests often consists of run-?of-?mine material or processed ore on a conveyor belt. In most cases the final sample does not have enough mass, mixes different geological units, represents a rare blend and does not characterise the deposit. In order to obtain a reliable composite for trace elements and low-grade ores, sampling practitioners suggest at least half a ton of material.To prevent the common representative pitfalls in the FSE, this case study focuses on a single gold-?bearing geological unit collected in situ. With this unit being structured by the mine geologists, but with the interaction between engineers and chemists, it was possible to validate the reconciliation suggested by Pitard (2015). The heterogeneity test and the sample tree method were performed using 500 kg of a smoky quartz from a single geological domain and the results were compared to Gy’s formula. The logging practice by the geologists was modified, emphasising the definition of the size of the gold nugget or its cluster, number of grains and association. Finally, a mineralogical study was conducted on the geological unit to define the liberation factor. All the information is compiled in this paper, showing the need to fully understand the mineralisation to correctly define representative samples and proper analytical techniques.CITATION:Villanova, F L S P, Heberle, A and Chieregati, A C, 2017. Heterogeneity tests and core logging – a final reconciliation, in Proceedings Eighth World Conference on Sampling and Blending , pp 107–114 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

May 9, 2017

By P. den Hoed, R. I. Rambiyana

"Four sulphide minerals - pyrite (FeS2), pyrrhotite (Fe1-xS), pentlandite ([Ni,Fe]9S8), and chalcopyrite (CuFeS2) - contain the base metals and most of the iron in concentrates of platinum group metals (PGMs). In the pyrometallurgical processing of PGM concentrates these sulphides form a matte during smelting, and iron and sulphur are removed from the matte during the converting process. This paper discusses the roasting of Merensky concentrate in air before smelting, with the purpose of reducing the matte load to the converter.Roasting tests were conducted in a bench-scale rotary kiln at temperatures from 350°C to 700°C. The concentrate tested contained 17.4% sulphur and consisted of 23% pyrrhotite, 16% pentlandite, 11% chalcopyrite, and 2% pyrite. The particles were fine (d50 = 22 µm), and all the sulphide particles were liberated. Roasting in air at 550°C and 650°C for 20 minutes removed respectively 60% and 70% of the sulphur. The iron in the sulphides was oxidized to Fe3O4 (magnetite) at temperatures below 500°C and to Fe2O3 (haematite) at temperatures above 550°C. At 700°C the bed sintered and copper oxides formed. At temperatures below 450°C oxidation was incomplete: pyrrhotite remained and only 30% of the sulphur was removed. Smelting tests were conducted to assess matte fall and the deportment of copper and nickel to matte. It was evident that roasting resulted in lower matte falls (a drop of approximately 60%) compared with matte falls from unroasted concentrate. The iron and sulphur levels in the matte were reduced to below 3.5% and 22% respectively.This paper also briefly describes the mechanisms by which pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, and pentlandite are oxidized during roasting. For chalcopyrite, the mechanism proceeds through an intermediate solid solution phase, which extends from Cu1.02Fe1.04S2 to Cu2.04Fe0.72S2 to a copper-rich solid solution of bornite (Cu4Fe1.4S4-Cu2S). The oxidation of pentlandite proceeds through a monosulphide solid solution (Ni0.39Fe0.53S-Ni0.74Fe0.15S) to a solid solution of heazlewoodite ([Ni,Fe]3}xS2). These mechanisms are explored in relation to chemical thermodynamics and microstructures."

Jan 1, 2015

By P. Sarnoff

Gold has always been a crisis investment. For centuries gold has been considered globally the money of last resort. In time of war, inflation, financial uncertainty, political upheaval there has with few exceptions always been a flight to gold. The gold paradox simply is that even though we have gone through for the past handful of years all the kinds of. anxieties that would cause the gold price to rise, it has instead dropped drastically. Figure 1. illustrates the important factors that influenced the gold price significantly up or down before 1987. Obviously, since then, even though we have had wars, inflation, financial problems involving breaking banks and thrifts let alone collapsing financial institutions, the gold price has both in the long-term and the short-term trended downwards. Figure 2. depicts the gold price path since 1987. If the presence of time-honored and time-tested factors that should have driven the gold price up didn't do the job, then logic dictates that new factors to drive the gold price down and keep it depressed arose. And they did. But before addressing these depressants permit me to turn to the arcane art of gold price prediction and fore-casting.

Jan 1, 1992