Uncertainty in Mineral Resources: Why It Should Be Part of a New Mining Ethos (Part 1) - SME Annual Meeting 2026

In mineral resources, geologic and mining data are acquired, processed, analysed, interpreted and modelled, eventually serving as basis to generate predictions and production plans. This is a complex process, and the resulting predictions are impacted by uncertainties related to the data itself and the processing methods and techniques used. They are also impacted by the subjective decisions made by the modeler(s) at each step of the way. Knowledge, biases, skills, and prior experience come into play in the long mineral resource evaluation development workflow. It is meaningless to discuss uncertainties without evaluating the associated risks that those uncertainties imply. It is important to quantify and assess uncertainty, and to evaluate and mitigate its consequences. This paper discusses (1) conceptual and practical sources of uncertainty; (2) the utopia of an “objective” uncertainty; and (3) the quantification and public reporting of uncertainty using geostatistical conditional simulations. The objective of this paper is to postulate that the industry is running out of reasons and excuses to ignore uncertainty and risk in project evaluation. This is done in two parts, with this, the first one, presenting a more conceptual discussion. Part 2 will present case studies from different types of mining projects and operations showcasing the impact that risk assessments can have in a mining project.