The 1889 Johnstown Flood: Applying Risk-Informed Decision Making to a Preventable Disaster - SME Annual Meeting 2026

The 1889 Johnstown Flood, which killed 2,209 people, was a preventable disaster stemming from systemic decisionmaking failures. This paper applies modern Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) frameworks to analyze the historical context and explore alternative outcomes through hypothetical multiverse scenarios. By reconstructing the risk landscape of the South Fork Dam, we demonstrate how structured hazard identification, risk assessment, and stakeholder communication could have mitigated or prevented the catastrophe. Three counterfactual scenarios—proactive maintenance, community engagement, and regulatory oversight—are evaluated to quantify potential lives saved and economic benefits. The study acknowledges historical barriers, including technological limitations, lack of governance, and socioeconomic disparities, which constrained risk-aware decisions in the 19th century. The analysis draws critical parallels to contemporary engineering challenges, particularly in tailings storage facility (TSF) management, where similar risk blind spots persist. The paper concludes that RIDM is not merely a technical tool but a governance imperative, essential for ethical and sustainable engineering practice. By learning from historical near-misses and failures, the modern engineering community can strengthen resilience and accountability. This work contributes to the growing body of retrospective risk analysis, offering a methodological framework for applying RIDM to historical disasters to inform future safety standards.