Risk in ultimate pit selection

The basis for the selection of the ultimate pit for an open-pit mining operation is generally opaque. Some form of value-based analysis will generally guide the final decision; however, the value will often gradually plateau while the ultimate pit size continues to increase. There is no established framework to guide specialists in the selection of the ultimate pit, with such decisions regularly made on a somewhat arbitrary basis. The key component that is missing from the analyses typically used to select the size of the ultimate pit is risk. Once risk is quantified within the analysis framework, the decision-mak-ing range is significantly reduced and the process for select-ing the ultimate pit becomes more consistent, replicable and defensible. The technique outlined in this paper provides an approach to including risk in the process used to select the ultimate pit.