AMC Hill of Value®: Strategic Mine Optimization and Real Options Analysis at Industrial Scal - SME Annual Meeting 2026

Net Present Value (NPV) derived from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis remains the dominant metric for evaluating mining projects despite its well-documented inability to capture managerial flexibility under uncertainty. DCF assumes that all risks are perfectly priced by financial markets. This is an unlikely assumption for volatile commodity prices, geological variability, or the array of mining technical and operational risks present on all mine sites. Real Options Analysis (ROA) was developed to remedy this limitation by explicitly valuing the ability of managers to defer, expand, scale, switch, or abandon investments as new information emerges, and to capture upside and mitigate downside risks. While ROA is philosophically correct and routinely shows an uplift in project value compared with DCF, its practical application at industrial scale is severely constrained, ROA faces the reality of a combinatorial explosion in complexity of decision trees, Monte Carlo simulations and other models required when multiple interdependent or sequential options exist across numerous mining zones and time periods. The AMC Hill of Value® (HoV) process adopts the same intellectual foundation as ROA, that flexibility has economic value, but operationalizes it through a far more robust and scalable architecture. It is built on parametric relationships, rapid scheduling, and multi-objective evolutionary optimisation. HoV can evaluate millions of compound, interdependent real options in a single optimisation run, delivering resilient, adaptive strategies that preserve managerial flexibility while simultaneously optimising NPV, mine life, risk exposure, and other corporate objectives. This paper demonstrates that HoV is the practical, industrial-scale embodiment of real options thinking in mining: it discovers, ranks, and translates the most valuable real options into strategic mine plans, overcoming the scalability barriers that have prevented widespread adoption of classical ROA.